Uncategorized Archive

Philly Fed Manufacturing, home sales, miles traveled

Post-war collapse theme intact: Falling back to the pre-Covid war trend line: We’re back burning fuel with abandon: ...Read More

Retail sales, homebuilder sentiment, housing starts

Not growing when adjusted for inflation: Down but still high vs historical data: Trend still intact:       Trend still intact: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, NY manufacturing, oil prices

2008 type of collapse: Lowest ever: Saudi OSPs are still at premiums to fair market value, and the price trend is still up. If it keeps going all heck breaks loose: The President threw the strategic petroleum reserve at it, and lots of other nations did the same, to no avail. And ...Read More

Small business optimism index, record budget surplus, commodities

Not good: This is the automatic fiscal stabilizers doing their thing to slow things down during a recovery, and they keep increasing the pressure until growth goes negative. Additionally, with some $30 trillion of public debt, an 8% increase in prices means the value of the public debt- the net money supply ...Read More


My take is we’ve had a one time upward adjustment in prices due to increased costs from Covid-related supply issues, along with supply side disruptions from the Trump/Biden tariffs. Prices seem to have begun to level off and go sideways, which would mean CPI increases returning to the lower, pre-Covid monthly increases: ...Read More

Personal income and spending

This series keeps drifting lower as personal income isn’t keeping up with price increases: And the economy itself isn’t growing real personal income the way it did pre-covid: Likewise, personal consumption is sluggish: People are saving less and less every month: ...Read More

GDP, jobless claims

Typical post war recession type of outcome, as previously discussed:   One reason for the low unemployment in the US is that for a lot of people you need a job to get health insurance: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims   Reported inflation will fall rapidly unless energy prices increase from current levels, which is likely ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, housing starts and permits, Saudi pricing vs benchmarks, oil inventories

Covid dip, recovery, and now a decline: Covid dip, recovery, and now sideways at levels of some 25 years ago when there were a lot fewer people: Through June, Saudis caused the big dip and recovery, then attempted to stabilize. The most recent Reuters report suggested price increases vs benchmarks, which is ...Read More

Employment by wage level, claims, durable goods, pending home sales, steel prices

Claims continue to drift lower but are still about double what they were pre covid: Continued claims are also about double pre covid levels: Fell back some and still below pre covid highs. This chart is not adjusted for inflation: Same pattern of recent weakness: Pending home sales in the US surged ...Read More

JOLTS, Fed lending survey, Tariff comment

Still rolling over: ...Read More