Uncategorized Archive

Credit Check

Still getting worse: ...Read More

New home sales, Durable goods orders, Vehicle sales

Nice uptick, but subject to revision and at best indicating continued very modest growth well below the last cycle with a population that’s maybe 10% higher than it was 10 years ago: Highlights Volatility tied to low sample sizes is what the new home sales report is known for, proving its reputation ...Read More

Apartments index, JOLTS chart, Rig count chart

Yet another chart that looks like we might already be in recession: Hires quits were the leading indicators in the last cycle: Rig count peaked a few months ago: ...Read More

Existing home sales, Oil rig count

Now down year over year, and in line with the deceleration in bank mortgage lending: Highlights Existing home sales posted their first gain in four months, rising 0.7 percent in September to a 5.390 million annualized rate that is near Econoday’s top forecast. Hurricane effects are hard to gauge with the National ...Read More

Fed surveys

These surveys are the ‘soft data’ that’s looking good. They all gapped higher around election time and have remained elevated. In fact it looks like there’s already been a recession followed by a recovery: Unfortunately the ‘hard data’ isn’t looking so good: ...Read More

Housing starts, Spending, Trump comments, Car comment

Continuing evidence that the slowdown in bank lending is reflecting slowdowns in the macro economy: Highlights Single-family permits continue to rise in what, however, is the main positive in an otherwise weaker-than-expected housing starts and permits report. Looking first at headline totals, starts fell 4.7 percent in September to a 1.127 million ...Read More

JOLTS, IBD survey, Trump comments

I read this as weakening demand and employers unwilling to pay up to hire, and maybe even posting openings to replace existing workers at lower wages: Highlights Job openings held steady at a very abundant 6.082 million in August while hirings remained far behind, at 5.430 million. In an early indication of ...Read More

Small business survey, Commercial construction index, Buybacks comments

Trumped up expectations continue to unwind, though still above pre election levels, and note the details: Highlights The small business optimism fell 2.3 points in September to 103.0, led by a sharp drop in sales expectations, not only in states affected by hurricanes in Texas and Florida, but across the country. The ...Read More

Credit check

Appears to be leveling off at much lower rates of growth than last year, as reflected by weaker than expected data releases and revisions: ...Read More

Employment, Consumer credit, Social security comment, Corporate debt, Party affiliation

Year over year growth has been decelerating for all practical purposes in a straight line, as per the chart. And the downward revisions in prior months are further evidence of the weakness which began with the collapse in oil capex at the end of 2014. And wage growth increased at least partially ...Read More