Uncategorized Archive

ISM services, employment

The rate of growth has been decelerating due to the fiscal contraction, but remains over 50 which means positive growth: No recession here as employment growth continues and unemployment isn’t rising. Yes, growth is slowing from the post-Covid fiscal collapse, but not yet to the point of negative growth. And the increase ...Read More

Dallas Fed, consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders

Decelerating from post-Covid bounce expansion rates of growth: Decelerating but still at reasonably high levels: Decelerating from the post-Covid war fiscal consolidation but still positive: Still up: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, new home sales, architecture billing index, light vehicle sales

Settling in at pre-Covid levels, and the fiscal collapse depresses growth: Down, but still above 50: Still trending lower from the post-Covid fiscal collapse: ...Read More

Housing starts, sales managers index, mortgage purchase index, sales managers index

After a post-Covid recovery spike, we have settled back to pre-Covid levels, which was well before the rate hikes: Applications have softened. This is the first up-week since the rate hikes: In many ways, we have yet to recover from the oil capex collapse of about 7 years ago: ...Read More

Philly Fed, labor demand, bank loans

Manufacturing settling down to ‘neutral’ after peaking well before the rate hikes as post-Covid shortages are alleviated: Labor demand also peaked well before the rate hikes: Still no sign rate hikes have slowed lending ;) ...Read More

Housing starts, industrial production, small business index

Growth overall remains sluggish as the economy becomes dependent on private sector credit expansion (private sector deficit spending) to offset the too tight post-Covid fiscal policy. Fed rate hikes add interest income to the economy as gov pays more interest on the $30+ trillion of public debt, which, if anything, supports rather ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, Federal receipts, CPI

The post-Covid fiscal deficit reduction continues to take its toll: Higher prices automatically result in a spike in tax receipts: Higher prices, now largely from energy prices pushing up costs, reduce the inflation adjusted value of the public debt, which acts like a tax on the economy:   With the rate of ...Read More

Employment, ISM services, vehicle sales, oil price

Leveling off at approximately pre-Covid levels. The growth rate slowed as deficit spending dropped: Still in expansion but it has come way down with the post-Covid war. Drop in deficit spending that has been driving the general deceleration: Not looking good. The parts shortage is largely over, so it is about a ...Read More

Personal consumption and expenditures

Pretty much back on the pre-Covid trend line: But income is on the decline: So consumers are spending more than their incomes, mainly through borrowing: ...Read More

Richmond Fed, unemployment claims, vehicle sales, Philly state coincident indicator

Employment is still growing. Wages aren’t keeping up with prices so people are taking jobs out of necessity and to get healthcare: No sign of recession yet: ...Read More