This will work- can be used to pay local taxes:

‘Bristol Pound’ currency to boost independent traders

By Dave Harvey

Feb 5 (BBC) — The Euro is in trouble, the world’s financial system is in turmoil. Is this the perfect time for cities to go it alone, and print their own money?

A group of independent traders in Bristol are launching their own currency, with the backing of the council and a credit union.

The “Bristol Pound” will be printed in notes, and also traded electronically.

There are other local currencies in the UK, but this is the first which can be used to pay local business taxes.

Ciaran Mundy, the director of the Bristol Pound, explained the concept behind the currency.

“Big companies just hoover up money from a local area,” he told me.

“Money goes into their financial system and typically out into London and into the offshore sector.”

Corporate challenge
But by definition, Bristol pounds must stay in the city. Spend a tenner in a Bristol bakery, and they must use it to pay their suppliers or staff. In turn, those companies will have to use the money within the local economy.

“We’ll be driving more business to independent traders, and ensuring the diversity of our city, which is one of the things people love about Bristol,” Mr Mundy said.

Already more than 100 firms are signed up. A family bakery, the Tobacco Factory Theatre, the Ferry company, dozens of small cafes – even Thatcher’s Cider will accept Bristol pounds.

So how will it work?

They will print notes in £1, £5, £10 and £20 denominations. A Bristol pound will be worth exactly £1 sterling.

People will open an account with the Bristol Credit Union, which is administering the scheme, and for every pound sterling they deposit, they will be credited one Bristol pound.

This money can then either be cashed, or used electronically to pay bills online or even with a mobile phone.

Since the money is held by the credit union, which has FSA backing, it will have the same protection as any other deposit account. The standard government scheme guarantees up to £85,000 per person.

Bristolians are being challenged to help design the new notes. The organisers have already created a logo, and produced security features to counter forgery.

There is a silver hologram design, a gold foil strip with serial numbers embedded, and other features which are impossible to reproduce.

But whose face should be on the notes? That is down to Bristolians.

Small change?
“Bristol’s own currency should reflect the values and the lives of people who live here,” explained the designer, Adele Graham.

“We’re open to any suggestions. It could be famous people, but it can be any design at all which Bristolians feel represents their city.”

Local people can submit their ideas on the Bristol Pound’s website. The competition will run until the end of February, and the notes will be launched in May.

But will the Bristol Pound really take off?

Most local currencies have remained small. The Totnes Pound was the first to launch, in Devon in 2006, and has 70 traders involved.

Eighteen months ago Stroud, in Gloucestershire, starting printing its own currency, but to date no more than 30 firms are taking the money.

Bristol’s organisers point to two key differences: online banking, and council support.

Since the scheme is run by a bona fide financial institution, the Bristol Credit Union, traders can pay each other large amounts of money at the click of a button.

Also unique is the ability to pay local business rates in local currency. The council leader, Councillor Barbara Janke, is fully behind the scheme.

She told me: “This is a chance to demonstrate the economic resilience of the city.

“We want to make it as easy as possible for people to use the Bristol Pound.”

‘No real boost’
Paying business rates in Bristol pounds means firms need not worry about being stuck with thousands of pounds they can’t spend, if their own suppliers refuse them.

Naturally, there are sceptics. Will people find it inconvenient to carry two kinds of notes in their pockets? Will it be more than a gimmick?

Interestingly, it is the prospect of success that worries some the most.

Ben Yearsley understands money. Big money. He is an investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, the Bristol finance house which looks after £22bn of people’s savings.

He points out that the scheme will do nothing to help Britain’s economic recovery.

“This won’t boost spending,” he explained. “It will merely move money from one sector to another, from national firms to local ones.”

And if the Bristol Pound really works, Mr Yearsley worries that big national firms may be put off.

“A lot of people work for the national companies, and you may actually cause an increase in unemployment. Worse, there may be a brake on investment in the city.”

But the organisers think he worries too much.

Stephen Clarke, a local lawyer who is working for the new currency for nothing, said: “This is not an attack on national chains.

“We just want to preserve our local independents, and you can see how hard it is for them at the moment.”

Whenever local shops close down, and supermarkets or chain stores open, there are complaints about “cloned high streets” and “chain store Britain”.

Well, now if people really want to support independents, they can quite literally put their money where their mouth is.

U.K. to Propose Work-for-Benefits Program, Sunday Times Reports

By Svenja O’Donnell

Jan 8 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. coalition government is planning a compulsory community work program for the long-term unemployed, the Sunday Times said, citing Employment Minister Chris Grayling.

The plan will include stopping benefits for as many as three years for those who refuse to sign up, the newspaper said.

Grayling has indicated his support for the plan, saying a “work for dole” program will help curb the U.K.’s expenditure on benefits for the jobless, the paper said.

People who have been unemployed for three years or more will be forced to work unpaid for six months under the terms of the program, the Sunday Times said.

That includes selling trinkents and services to the higher income foreign tourists and residents. I used to call it Sultan fanning.

It is not a sign of prosperty…

Resurgent self-employment soars to 75-year high

By Richard Tyler

Dec 26 (Telegraph) — Britain is witnessing a renaissance in self-employment on a scale not seen since the 1930s, the latest business figures show.

Barclays estimates that nearly 480,000 new businesses were created over the past year a record and said official statistics revealed that self-employment now stood at the highest level relative to the total working population for 75 years.

The UK is in the middle of a boom for start-ups. Our best guess is that in England and Wales we are up 4pc to 5pc in the year to November and thats on the back of two strong years, said Richard Roberts, small and medium enterprise analyst at Barclays.

He said more people were setting up their own ventures because being self-employed had become more socially accepted.

The enduring nature of the economic downturn was also a factor. Few people will voluntarily risk their savings during short, sharp recessions, Dr Roberts said, with any increase in entrepreneurial activity coming from people shifting from unemployment into self-employment.

As the economy has shown little sign of recovering for the past two years, people were taking the plunge, he said. Most new business owners would have spotted an opportunity to make money, but some will have been made redundant and had no choice.

Says it all, sadly.

France and Germany also announce agreement to target 0 deficits for all euro members which
takes the steam out of any relief rally as they solve the solvency issue.

Not much upside for the world economy when it all thinks and acts like this:

Osborne Vows More Austerity as Slump Hits U.K. Deficit Plan

By Gonzalo Vina

Nov 30 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Britain faces two extra years of austerity as he sought to shore up his deficit-reduction plans, intensifying a conflict with unions that are staging a mass walkout today.

Osborne used his end-of-year economic statement to Parliament yesterday to announce 23 billion pounds ($36 billion) of additional spending cuts after the Office for Budget Responsibility slashed its forecasts for economic growth. The fiscal watchdog predicted Osborne will need to borrow an extra 112 billion pounds by 2016 and said more than 700,000 public- sector workers will lose their jobs over the next six years.

“Osborne acknowledges that the consolidation program is behind schedule and aims to make up for lost ground with an even longer period of fiscal austerity,” Michael Saunders, chief European economist at Citigroup in London, said in an interview. “The government has no alternative. If they slide, the markets will put the U.K. from Category A to Category B.”

Unions say as many as 2 million public-sector workers will join today’s 24-hour strike over plans to make them contribute more toward their pensions and retire later. Osborne is extending his spending cuts beyond 2015, when they were due to end, risking a backlash from voters in the election due in May of that year.

*DJ UK Cameron: Economic Threat As Serious As It Was In 2008
*DJ UK Cameron: “We Need To Tell Truth About Econ Situation”
*DJ UK Cameron: This Was Debt Crisis, Not Normal Recession
*DJ UK Cameron: Crisis Caused By Too Much Borrowing
*DJ UK Cameron: More Govt Borrowing Would Make Crisis Worse

???

*DJ UK Cameron: More Borrowing Risks Higher Rates, Less Confidence

???

So much for his legacy

How about suspending VAT?

Cameron Says Nothing Is Taboo as U.K. Tries to Boost Economy

By Eddie Buckle

Sep 4 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister David Cameron said “nothing should be taboo” as the government considers extra measures this fall to boost Britain’s flagging economic growth.

“We haven’t gone far enough,” Cameron wrote in an article for today’s Mail on Sunday newspaper. “My order to Whitehall this autumn is to think even more boldly about what we can do to put the turbo-boosters on Britain’s economy.”

The government will if necessary tackle lobby groups “that are defending every last bit of the regulation that crushes business,” Cameron wrote. “And yes, if it means putting even more pressure on the banks so they lend more to small businesses, then we’ll do that too.”

U.K. economic growth slowed to 0.2 percent in the second quarter and the Bank of England cut its growth projections last month to about 1.5 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2012. Banks have warned that implementation of any proposals to be made next week by the government-appointed Independent Commission on Banking to strengthen lenders’ financial positions should be postponed because of the faltering recovery.

Negative headlines and hard evidence Fisher doesn’t understand the role of bank capital:

HIGHLIGHTS:

U.K. Manufacturing Contracts Most in More Than Two Years
Fisher Says Bank Capital Levels Should Reflect Tail Risks
U.K. House Prices Decline the Most in 10 Months, Nationwide Says
Quantitative Easing Prospects Rise as UK Growth Forecast Cut
BCC Lowers U.K. Outlook, Pushes Back BOE Rate-Increase Forecast
Continued Stimulus Is Not Called for, Sentance Writes in the WSJ

The wonder is how Moody’s keeps it’s prized credibility and Sarah Carlson her prized job.

Moody’s Analyst: Weak Growth, Fiscal Slips Could Lose UK ‘AAA’

Jun 8 (MNI) — The UK could lose its prized ‘Aaa’ credit rating if growth remains weak and the coalition government fails to meet its fiscal consolidation targets, a senior analyst at ratings agency Moody’s has told Market News International.

Sarah Carlson, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody’s, told MNI that weak growth and fiscal slippage could see the country’s ‘debt metrics’ deteriorate to a point that would trigger a downgrade.

“Although the weaker economic growth prospects in 2011 and 2012 do not directly cast doubt on the UK’s sovereign rating level, we believe that slower growth combined with weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation efforts could cause the UK’s debt metrics to deteriorate to a point that would be inconsistent with a Aaa rating,” she said.

Carlson also said that due to their sheer size the UK’s austerity plans have a degree of ‘implementation risk’.

“As is true of any large fiscal consolidation effort, the government’s austerity plans entail some implementation risk. Moreover, a multi-year austerity programme of this magnitude is a political challenge,” she said.

Carlson’s comments come in a week of frenzied debate as to whether UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne’s fiscal consolidation plans are working.

At present, the government aims to close Britain’s structural deficit will by the end of 2014-15, slashing departmental budgets by almost stg100 billion over four years.

But a weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP outturn and a slew of disappointing economic data since then, has led several economists to question the wisdom of such a rapid deficit-reduction plan while others have said there is no other choice.

On Sunday, a group of leading economists led by Prof. Tony Atkinson of Oxford and centre-left pressure group Compass wrote a letter to the Observer newspaper questioning the wisdom of the current plan.

Carlson said that the government’s creation of a cross-departmental committee to monitor progress in public spending cuts could be useful in reinforcing commitment to consolidation.

“The creation of the Public Expenditure Cabinet Committee (PEX) – a cross-government spending committee that will monitor the progress of individual departments against their budget plans – has the potential to be a promising institutional change that could further bolster confidence in the government’s ability to follow through with its ambitious austerity programme.”

On Monday, a group of centre-right economists wrote a letter to the Telegraph newspaper which argued against relaxing austerity measures.

In its Article IV Consultation Report on the UK released Monday, the IMF said that there had been unexpected weaknesses in UK economy over the past few months but labelled the troubles temporary and advised the government to keep to its current deficit-reduction plan.

My Q2 guestimate for the tipping point may not have been too far off

U.K. CIPS May Manufacturing Index Falls to 20-Month Low (Bloomberg)

A U.K. manufacturing index, based on a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, declined to 52.1 in May from a downwardly revised 54.4 in April. “Domestic market weakness was the main drag on order books and output,” Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said in the statement. “This was exacerbated by the additional bank holidays in late April, which fell during the early part of the latest survey period, and ongoing supply-chain disruption following the Japanese earthquake.” Producers of consumers goods and small-scale manufacturers were hit hardest last month as output and new orders fell for the first time since the middle of 2009, CIPS said.

U.K. April Mortgage Approvals Fall to Lowest in Four Months (Bloomberg)

Lenders granted 45,166 loans to buy homes, compared with a revised 47,145 the previous month, the Bank of England said. The April figure is the lowest since December. The Bank of England figures show net mortgage lending rose 739 million pounds ($1.22 billion) in April and gross lending amounted to 11.2 billion pounds. Consumer credit rose a net 504 million pounds in April. Credit-card lending increased 347 million pounds, the most since February 2010, while personal loans and overdrafts rose 157 million pounds. A measure of M4 money-supply growth that the central bank uses to assess the effectiveness of its asset purchases fell 2 percent in the three months through April on an annualized basis.

U.K. Inflation May Be Hurting Economic Growth, Sentance Says (Bloomberg)

Former Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said U.K. inflation at more than twice the central bank’s 2 percent goal may be hurting economic expansion.
“The fact that inflation is high is not necessarily associated with strong growth,” he said in an interview with Sky News late yesterday, marking his final day as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee. “In some ways inflation is squeezing out the growth of the economy because it is squeezing people’s disposable incomes.”

Sentance, who will today be replaced by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Ben Broadbent, said interest rates need to start going up “gradually” now to curb consumer price growth and prevent “much sharper” rate increases in the future.

He also said the central bank’s view of inflation didn’t put enough weight on the influence of the international economy, commodity costs and the decline of the pound.

“I think we should revisit our thinking on the economy,” he said. “We went through a period where there seemed to be a very predictable relationship between growth and inflation. Now we’re in a much more complex situation.”

Sentance said it was difficult to judge how long the impact of the pound’s weakness on inflation would last, as it hadn’t been offset by the impact of the recession holding down prices and wages.

“The issue with the fall in the value of the pound is how big its effect will be and how long it will continue,” he said. “We’re an economy very open to international trade and the value of the pound affects the amount of competition on the markets, the way in which companies price in markets so I think we do have to take the value of the pound very seriously.”

U.K. Housing Transactions to Fall 5.2% This Year, CML Forecasts (Bloomberg)

U.K. housing transactions will probably fall 5.2 percent this year before rising in 2012 as the economy experiences a “weak and patchy recovery,” the Council of Mortgage Lenders said.

Transactions will fall to 840,000 this year from 886,000 in 2010, the London-based group said in a report on its website today. They will rise to 900,000 in 2012, matching the level in 2008. Gross mortgage advances will amount to 140 billion pounds this year and 150 billion pounds in 2012, which compares with
253 billion pounds in 2008.

The CML sees the Bank of England keeping its key interest rate at 0.5 percent for “most” of this year before starting a “modest” tightening cycle that will continue through 2012.

“The prospect of a gentler upward profile for interest rates significantly mitigates the adverse impact on household budgets of weak growth in incomes, and this will help borrowers keep up with their mortgage payments,” it said.

U.K. Consumer Spending Rebound Likely to Be Very Slow, FT Says (Bloomberg)

U.K. consumer spending is likely to recover more slowly than in any post-recession period since 1830, the Financial Times reported, citing its own analysis of forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Households are forecast to spend 5.4 percent more in 2015 than they did before the 2008 financial crisis; at the equivalent stages of the 1980s and 1990s recessions, spending was 20 percent and 15 percent higher, respectively, the newspaper said.
In the 18 significant U.K. recessions that have occurred since records began in 1830, consumer spending rose 12 percent above its previous peak within seven years, the FT said, citing Bank of England figures.

Even with headline ‘inflation’ above comfort levels and recognizing the need to ‘manage inflation expectations’ under ‘expectations theory’ they all religiously believe, they seem to be sufficiently concerned about aggregate demand to make these kinds of dovish comments.

Conclusion: they’re understating the general weakness they’re sensing.

From Karim, my partner at Valance:

Karim writes:

Taking a page from the Fed’s playbook?

The BOE has seen the Fed effectively scare portfolio managers and speculators out of the dollar with QE, which they know does nothing apart from just that, and may in fact even be fundamentally supportive of the dollar.

So desirous of a weaker currency, why not make a knowingly silly statement like this and manipulate portfolio managers who don’t know any better into shedding pounds in this increasingly bizarre international display of managing expectations?

And even if I’m giving them far too much credit for cleverness, the result is the same none the less…

BOE’s King Says Higher Interest Rates Would Exacerbate Debt Woes

By Jim Brunsden

May 3 (Bloomberg) — Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said high debt levels pose “massive” economic challenges that would be exacerbated by higher interest rates.

“The economic consequences of high-level indebtedness now would become more severe if rates were to rise,” King said yesterday at a committee of the European Parliament in Brussels. “It is the main reason why interest rates are so low.”

Bank of England policy makers are split four ways over monetary policy. The central bank probably will leave the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent at the next rate meeting on May 5, according to the median of 43 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Last month, Andrew Sentance voted for an increase to 1 percent, Martin Weale and Spencer Dale for a quarter-percentage- point rise and Adam Posen for expansion of the bond-purchase program. The rest, including King, voted for no change.

“The problem of leverage, the sheer volume of debt in the economy, is still very large and this poses massive macro-economic challenges,” King said yesterday. “I think these macro-economic challenges will last many years.”

While the austerity measures will bite, in the UK, like much of the world, automatic fiscal stabilizers (rising transfer payments and lower tax revenues) got their deficits up high enough to reverse the downturns in GDP, and deficits remain high enough for modest growth.

The UK had weather issues in December, which are reversing.

As the austerity measures continue to come on line, they will drain off some of the aggregate demand being added by the counter cyclical deficits and keep a damper on growth.

It’s just a guess, and there are other factors as well (oil prices, China slowdown, etc.) but I suspect the actual slowdown from the austerity is still down the road a piece.

UK Headlines:

U.K. Construction Grew Fastest in Eight Months in February
King Says Raising Rate to Make a Gesture Is Self-Defeating
RBC Says Stronger Pound Highlights View BOE’s King Faces Defeat
UK House Prices Stage Surprise Rise as Mortgage Approvals Also Up

The deficit is still plenty large enough for a decent expansion, so the year end weather setbacks could be reversed and then some before sufficient austerity sets in and works to reverse it all.

Hard to figure the timing for the cross currents.

Also, opening the borders to wealthy foreigners, as they recently announced they were doing, is a clever move to firm the currency and support the economy and asset prices.

UK Headlines

U.K. Retail Sales Advance at Fastest Pace in 10 Months, BRC Says
U.K. Housing-Price Gauge Increased in January on Supply Shortage
Osborne Says U.K. Bank Levy Increase to Raise 800 Million Pounds

Still looks to me like the govt deficit is plenty high enough to support at least modest gdp growth until the pro active austerity measures actually reduce it.

UK Headlines:

U.K. Service Industries Return to ‘Pre-Snow’ Growth

Inflation Could Force Bank of England to Raise Interest Rates, Says Deputy Governor Charlie Bean

UK Faces US-style Jobless Recovery, Says Institute for Fiscal Studies

Wealthy Britons Planning to Increase Spending in 2011, HSBC Says

Yes, at the better end of expectations, but still a small net tax increase as of year end. No actual relief for anyone.

And that’s best case. They haven’t actually passed it yet.

Austerity still going strong in the euro zone and the UK.

And China still working on slowing things down to fight inflation.

Oil prices are up which will slow things down some but not generate enough inflation for the Fed to care.

So doesn’t look like anything out there to move the needle on growth or inflation enough to get the Fed to hike any time soon.

Karim writes:

Definitely at the better end of expectations, for both the tax cuts and the unemployment benefits…

(CNN) — President Barack Obama presented congressional Democratic leaders Monday with a proposed deal with Republicans that would extend Bush-era tax cuts for two years and unemployment benefits for 13 months while also setting the estate tax at 35% for two years on inheritances worth more than $5 million, a senior Democratic source told CNN.

The deal also includes a temporary 2% reduction in the payroll tax to replace Obama’s “making work pay” tax credit from the 2009 economic stimulus package for lower-income Americans, the senior Democratic source said.

As currently crafted, the deal would prohibit amendments by either party, according to the source, who spoke on condition of not being identified by name.

The UK conquest of Ireland began in 1169.

It’s time to finish the job.

All they have to do is offer the following:

Ireland converts all its public debt to sterling.

The UK Treasury takes over the responsibility for all of Ireland’s existing public debt.

(Ireland gets a clean start with no Irish govt. debt and not interest payments)

Ireland taxes and spends in sterling only and has a balanced budget requirement.

Ireland can borrow only for capital expenditures.

The UK Treasury guarantees all existing insured euro bank deposits in Irish banks.

Only sterling deposits are insured for new deposits.

Ireland runs a mirror tax code to the UK and keeps all of its tax revenues.

The UK agrees to fund Ireland’s with a pro rata/per capita share of any UK deficit spending.

St. Patrick’s Day is declared a UK national holiday and everyone over 21 gets a beer voucher.

The UK is tightening fiscal policy while the CB is enacting QE. The market thinks that this will substantially weaken the pound, is that the correct logic

no. but drives short term portfolio shifting and specs

or is QE not real money printing and the tight fiscal is the real force to be reckoned with?

yes. but takes longer to bite.

I’m just wondering if the mkt is getting positioned the wrong way based on faulty logic. Any thoughts?

totally agreed! the trick is timing and vs what currency.

the euro has it’s own set of deflationary forces already in place.

the dollar looks over sold against something based on wrong way qe betting.

the pound selling has to be against something.

the only currency left is the yen, which may be where the flight to safety is going. Shorting the yen has also been the widow maker- more reason to believe it’s over bought.

And their trade flows aren’t so positive any more, and they have been sporadically selling it probably vs the dollar, adding to supply. And the prospects of meaningful fiscal tightening in Japan seem less than the UK, euro zone, or even the US.

so the home run may be the yen against the pound.

the other flight to quality currencies have been the commodity currencies which could correct substantially. The $A looks particularly over valued based on anecdotal purchasing power parity. a diet coke is $3 for example, but they are China’s coal mine.

again, it will be about timing.

if the pound does start firming against the yen fundamentally, which it should, it can go for a long time, so it’s probably not worth trying to call the exact bottom.

Are they actually going to do this???

Good for us if we realized the right response is to lower our taxes here and letting them export all they want to us.

But we don’t.

Britain to Slash Public Spending in Austerity Gamble

October 20 (AP) — Recession-battered Britain learns the true cost of the global financial crisis Wednesday, as the country’s government outlines the largest cuts to public spending since World War II — slashing benefits and public sector jobs with a five-year austerity plan aimed at clearing the nation’s debts.

After spending billions bailing out indebted banks, and suffering a squeeze on tax revenue and a hike in welfare bills, Treasury chief George Osborne will stake the coalition government’s reputation on fixing the country’s economic ills by the next election in 2015.

In a major address to Parliament, Osborne will announce about 80 billion pounds ($128 billion) in spending cuts, which he claims are necessary alongside tax rises to wipe out Britain’s 156-billion-pound deficit and reduce its huge debt.

It means as many as 500,000 public sector jobs are likely to be lost, while pay for almost all government workers has already been frozen for two years under an initial round of austerity measures announced in June.

Even Queen Elizabeth II has taken a share of the strain, as Osborne froze government funding for her household and staff.

The Treasury chief — seen as a possible future prime minister — has already warned government departments to prepare to cut their budgets by up to 25 percent over four years. While the eventual cuts are likely to be much less severe, they are likely to be the sharpest in about 60 years.

About 1.2 million families will lose child benefit payments beginning in 2013, and tens of thousands more Britons are likely to see their welfare checks trimmed or scrapped.

If the government decides to slash its winter fuel allowance, millions of retirees could lose out on subsidized heating. About 12 million people currently receive the payment.

Right, how can it not with a 12% type deficit?

U.K. Economy Grows Most Since 2001 on Construction

By Scott Hamilton

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. economy expanded faster
than previously estimated in the second quarter in the biggest
growth spurt since 2001 as companies rebuilt stocks and
construction work surged.
Gross domestic product rose 1.2 percent from the previous
three months, the Office for National Statistics said today in
London. That was higher than the 1.1 percent initial estimate,
which was the median forecast of 25 economists in a Bloomberg
News survey. On the year, the economy expanded 1.7 percent.
Britain’s growth pickup may deepen the divide among policy
makers as the Bank of England considers whether the economy
faces a greater threat from inflation or needs more stimulus to
avert a further recession. The pound declined after the report,
which showed slower services growth than previously estimated
and a drop in fixed investment.
“The third quarter looks like it’s started pretty well,”
James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial Markets, said in
a telephone interview. “Momentum can be continued into the next
few months,” though “we should be looking at growth being
subdued over the coming years and that could raise the prospect
of further stimulus rather than a withdrawal.”
The pound fell more than 0.2 percent against the dollar
after the data were published. The currency traded at $1.5504 as
of 9:47 a.m. in London. The yield on the benchmark two-year
government bond was down 2 basis points today at 0.618 percent.

Budget Squeeze

The U.K. faces the biggest budget squeeze since World War
II, which has undermined consumer confidence. Ed Balls, a
candidate for the leadership of the U.K.’s opposition Labour
Party, said today that the government’s plans to cut the budget
deficit immediately risk pushing Britain back into recession.
At the same time, a debt crisis threatens the recovery in
the euro region, the U.K.’s largest trading partner, and there
are signs the global recovery is cooling.
The U.S. economy probably grew at a 1.4 percent annualized
pace in the second quarter, slower than the 2.4 percent rate
projected last month, according to the median forecast of 81
economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the slowest
growth since the second quarter of 2009 when the economy was
still contracting. That data will be released later today.

Construction Surge

The U.K. GDP figure was revised up after construction
expanded faster than previously estimated, rising 8.5 percent on
the quarter, the most since 1982. Inventories rose by 983
million pounds ($1.5 billion) in the first evidence of stock-
building by companies for seven quarters, the statistics
office’s report showed.
Consumer spending rose 0.7 percent and government
expenditure increased by 0.3 percent, the statistics office
said. That offset a 2.4 percent drop in fixed investment.
Growth in services, which account for about three quarters
of the economy, was revised down to 0.7 percent from 0.9
percent, the statistics office said. Faster expansion in
business services was outweighed by a drop in air transport
during a quarter when European airspace was disrupted by an ash
cloud caused by volcanic activity in Iceland.
The “breakdown of GDP shows that the recovery is built on
very fragile foundations,” said Samuel Tombs, an economist at
Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “Household and government
spending did both post solid rises, but both sectors are very
unlikely to maintain such growth rates as the fiscal squeeze
kicks in over the coming quarters.”
In a separate report, the statistics office said that
business investment fell by 1.6 percent from the previous
quarter. On the year, it increased by 1.9 percent.

As in the US, with a large federal budget deficit consumers can spend out of income rather than debt and the economy do reasonably well.

And should they start spending out of both income and debt it gets that much better.

Bank of England Interest Rates to Reach 8% by 2012, Lilico Says

By Scott Hamilton

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) — Bank of England policy makers will
raise the benchmark interest rate to about 8 percent in 2012 to
combat surging inflation sparked by “explosive” economic
growth, Policy Exchange Chief Economist Andrew Lilico said.

Annual consumer-price gains may accelerate to more than 6
percent in two years as officials expand bond purchases and keep
the interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent to fight the
threat of a renewed recession, Lilico said in a telephone
interview from the London-based research group today.

While “a dip down in the economy” will slow interest-rate
increases, that will leave the Bank of England “behind the
curve” when it needs to tackle inflation, Lilico said.

The U.K. economy grew 1.1 percent in the second quarter in
the fastest expansion for four years. Bank of England Governor
Mervyn King said this month that inflation, at 3.1 percent in
July, has been faster than officials forecast and may keep
exceeding the government’s upper 3 percent limit into next year.

“The scope for a very strong recovery is definitely
there,” Lilico said. “Once it’s going they’ll find it very
hard to control because the growth will explosive. They’ll get a
big boom and then they’ll have to tighten hard. Our ideas of
what a normal interest rate is to deal with a boom need to be a
bit more realistic than they are now.”

Bank of England officials this month maintained emergency
stimulus to aid the economy during the biggest budget squeeze
since World War II.

Policy makers “need to do enough in terms of keeping
interest rates low and probably doing additional quantitative
easing to avoid that double dip turning into a double slump,”
Lilico said. “It’s not that policy makers are getting it wrong
– they’re getting it right — I just think the consequences of
them getting it right will in the end be inflation.”

U.K. Consumer Finance, Business Confidence Show Weakness

By Craig Stirling

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) — A U.K. index of consumer finances
stayed close to the lowest level in almost a year in August and
a quarterly gauge of business confidence weakened, evidence
Britain’s economic recovery may be waning.

The measure of finances, based on a survey of 2,000
households, was at 37.9, little changed from July’s reading of
37.2, Markit Economics Ltd. and YouGov Plc said in an e-mailed
statement today. Readings below 50 indicate deterioration. The
index of business confidence fell 4 points in the third quarter
to 21.5, Grant Thornton and the Institute of Chartered
Accountancy in England and Wales said, citing a survey of 1,000
members.

“A downbeat mood spans the household income spectrum, but
remains most acute amongst the lowest earners,” Tim Moore, an
economist at Markit, said in the statement. “Household finances
continue to suffer from a backdrop of squeezed disposable
income, stubbornly high inflation and ongoing public sector
spending cuts.”

While economists predict gross domestic product data this
week will confirm Britain had its best growth since 2006 in the
second quarter, surveys have signaled the pace of expansion may
have weakened since then. Bank of England policy makers kept
open the option of adding emergency stimulus this month to aid
the economy as public-spending cuts loom.

Grant Thornton and the ICAEW conducted their quarterly
survey by telephone from April 29 to July 22. YouGov collected
responses online for the monthly Markit household survey.