State Revenues Rising

Yes, revenues are going up, but my guess is actual state spending is not.

In other words, the rate of state ‘borrowing to spend’ including capital budgets has likely slowed?

That’s a net drop in aggregate demand- higher taxes without that much higher spending.

Also, spending federal funds is already figured in aggregate demand calculations as part of federal deficit spending.

And states are still struggling with the likes of pension contributions which decrease aggregate demand as well.

So looks to me states remain a net negative for growth next year, though as credits things are probably a lot less bleak than recent headlines have suggested.

As previously discussed, federal deficit spending floats all boats, etc.

THE ECONOMY
States Begin Slow Recovery as Revenues Increase

 

STATE BUDGETS IMPROVE
State and local budgets are in far better shape than a year ago as receipts from sales tax and corporate taxes pick up, but pressures remain from pension costs and Medicaid commitments.
By JAMES C. COOPER, The Fiscal Times
 

• Total state and local receipts, excluding federal grants, are up $120 billion..
• 42 states show increased tax revenues compared to a year ago.
• There were 72 municipal bond defaults in 2010, down 65 percent from 2009.
 

The poor condition of state and local budgets is on everyone’s radar, but just how much should we worry? Wall Street analyst Meredith Whitney recently declared on CBS’s 60 Minutes that, next to housing, the situation was the single biggest threat to the U.S. economy. That may have been true a year ago, when the recession had ravaged tax receipts and a lasting economic recovery was still in doubt. However, recent trends in both revenues and the economy look much more encouraging, and the risk of major short-term economic damage appears to be waning, not waxing.
 
Budget problems are not going to disappear anytime soon as states face the burden of huge unfunded pension obligations and rising Medicaid costs, among other expenses. California, for one, has a $28 billion deficit this year. The state received $630 million of stimulus funds for job creation, but according to the L.A. Times, only 25% of those funds have been spent due to bureaucratic red tape.
But governments are making significant progress, as many start to feel the updraft from the economic recovery. Tax receipts of state and local governments rose 5.1 percent in the third quarter from the same quarter a year ago, based on the latest accounting from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income taxes have yet to show much progress amid slow job growth, but sales tax receipts picked up notably last quarter, reflecting improving retail sales. The lion’s share of the growth in revenues has come from corporate taxes, which have surged 87 percent over the past year, as a result of this year’s surprisingly strong gain in corporate profits.
 
One often-cited problem for many states in the coming year is the expected loss of some $40 billion in federal money provided by the 2009 Recovery Act. However, many governments stand ready to make up the difference. State and local revenues from individual and corporate income taxes and sales taxes in the third quarter were up by $54 billion from a year ago, a growth rate that is likely to pick up in 2011, as economic growth and labor markets strengthen. In fact, since hitting bottom in the second quarter of 2009, total receipts from all sources, excluding federal grants-in-aid, have increased by $120 billion and have recovered all of their recession losses.
 

Analysts at the Rockefeller Institute noted a “significant improvement” in the state revenue picture and that the trend in tax collections for 2011 is “positive.” Based on their preliminary tracking for the third quarter, 42 states show an increase in revenues compared to a year earlier. However, individual stress levels vary greatly. Overall, the Rockefeller analysts say budget pressures remain, and additional revenue growth will be needed at a time when spending commitments continue to grow.
 
More revenue may well be the key surprise in the coming year. Revenue projections for the 2011 fiscal year, which began for most states on July 1, were based partly on economic forecasts at that time. Six months ago, the economy was slowing down as the European debt crisis sparked fears of a double-dip recession, and economists widely projected growth only in the 2-2.5 percent range for 2011. Now, given the rebound in consumer spending in the second half of 2010 and significant new stimulus in the recent tax deal, which offers a big boost to household incomes, a broad brush of economists have raised their 2011 growth projections into the 3.5-4 percent range. If realized, that pace and its implied boost to payrolls would greatly lift receipts from income, profits, and sales taxes, which make up 46 percent of state revenues, compared to 34 percent from federal grants.
 
State budgets may actually fair better than local finances next year. That reflects the different sources of revenues between states and cities. Property taxes account for 35 percent of local government receipts, while grants-in-aid from their respective state governments make up another 40 percent. The problem: Property taxes fluctuate with assessments, which are bound to go nowhere in the coming year, and many states under continued stress will find it difficult to funnel money to municipalities. Clearly, the better state coffers do in 2011, the better the condition of local budgets.
 
All this raises fears of a rash of defaults in the $2.8-trillion municipal bond market, as the 60-minutes report suggested. States and cities under the heaviest fiscal stress are already paying a significant premium on new borrowing, and the loss of Build America Bonds at the end of 2010, part of the 2009 Recovery Act, could lift borrowing costs further.
 
However, muni-bond defaults have actually fallen in 2010, to 72 totaling $2.5 billion, down from 204 in 2009, according to data reported by Bloomberg. Chris Hoene, director of research and innovation at the National League of Cities, notes that interest expense is only about 5 percent of state and local expenditures, and nearly all debt is long-term with predictable payments. Plus, almost all states and cities have balanced-budget requirements with provisions to address debt issues before default can occur.
 
Unfortunately, the draconian cuts already seen in state and local services and jobs have been the chief reason defaults have been held in check. For 2011, however, fewer cutbacks and a smaller hit to the overall economy seem likely. Economists at Barclays Capital project further declines in state and local payrolls of about 150,000 by the end of 2011. Every job is important, but in the big picture, that’s a drop in the bucket. Moody’s Analytics estimates that, if the economy grows nearly 4 percent next year, it will create about 2.6 million jobs, each one adding new revenues to state and local coffers. The same Barclays analysis projects that state and local governments will subtract only about 0.1 percentage point from growth in GDP in 2011.
 
State and local budgets are by no means out of the woods. Pressure will most likely continue into 2012, and longer-term problems loom with rising pension costs and Medicaid commitments. For now, at least, governments are making progress, and a stronger economy will add to the positive trend.

Tax Receipts Rebound as 15 Biggest States See Gain

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Tue, Mar 30, 2010 at 2:27 PM, Jason wrote:
>   
>   State tax receipts are reportedly up…
>   

Yes, federal looking like they’ve bottomed as well.

Definitely looks like activity has bottomed.

And still feels like we are going the way of Japan, but too early to tell.

>   
>   Granted we are still well below 2008 peak revenue levels
>   
>   and the budget crisis is far from over.
>   
>   But Muni CDS remains near the wide end of the range when compared with
>   Corporate IG:
>   
>   Still looks like a great trade to me…
>   

Tax Receipts Rebound as 15 Biggest States See Gain



By Dunstan McNichol


March 30 (Bloomberg) — The two-year slide in tax

collections that opened a $196 billion gap in U.S. state budgets

has stopped, easing pressure on credit ratings and giving leeway

to lawmakers as they craft spending plans for next year.

The 15 largest states by population forecast a 3.9 percent

gain in tax revenue in fiscal 2011, budget documents show. The

50 states on average may increase collections by about 3.5

percent, the first time in two years the figure is expected to

grow, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com,

California took in 3.9 percent more since December than

projected in January, Controller John Chiang said this month.

New York got $129 million above forecasts in its budget year

through February, according to a report from Comptroller Thomas

DiNapoli. In New Jersey, the second-wealthiest state per capita,

January sales-tax collections were 1.9 percent higher than a

year earlier, the first annual increase in 19 months,

forecasters said in a report last month.

“This time last year, we were sliding down a mountain,”

said David Rosen, chief budget officer for the New Jersey

Legislature. “I don’t think we are now; it’s stabilized.”

States collected about $79 billion less in sales, income

and corporate taxes in 2009 than in 2008, the U.S. Census Bureau

said today in a report, as the economy struggled through its

deepest slump since the Great Depression. Emergency spending

cuts and tax increases became routine during the recession that

began in December 2007.

‘Panic Mode’

The end of the collections crash will ease fiscal strains

that led New York-based Moody’s Investors Service to lower the

ratings of five states last year, after no downgrades in 2008.

It will also enable governors and legislators to draw up budgets

for fiscal 2011, which starts July 1 for most states, with more

confidence that money they plan to spend will arrive.

“As long as revenues were sliding, budgeters were in a

panic mode,” said Zandi, whose West Chester, Pennsylvania-based

company provides economic analysis to businesses, government and

investors. “It’s not as scary when revenues are rising.”

States’ combined budget gaps will still total $180 billion

in fiscal 2011 and $120 billion in fiscal 2012, the Washington-

based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates.

Economic Growth

This fiscal year, the 15 largest states expect to collect

11 percent less taxes than in fiscal 2008, budget proposals

show. It won’t be until 2013 that revenue returns to 2008

levels, said New Jersey’s Rosen and Barry Boardman, the North

Carolina General Assembly’s chief economist.

Collections of personal income and sales taxes, the two

largest components of state revenue, fell by 17 percent and 7

percent, respectively, last year compared with 2008, according

to the Census Bureau. Declines were less steep in the fourth

quarter than earlier in the year, with income taxes dropping by

4.7 percent to $59.9 billion and sales taxes sliding by 2.8

percent to $71.7 billion.

Corporate taxes increased 3.4 percent to $9.1 billion in

the fourth quarter, the Census Bureau said, after declining in

seven of the previous nine quarters.

Combined state and local tax collections climbed to $360.1

billion during the final three months of 2009, the first year-

over-year gain in five quarters and an almost 1 percent boost

from the same period in 2008, according to the agency.

State coffers are beginning to get a boost from an economy

that expanded at a 5.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter

of 2009, the most in six years. That’s stopped the drop in sales

tax collections, which generated $23 billion less last year than

in 2008, according to the Census Bureau.

Predictability a ‘Positive’

Arizona, which sold state buildings and canceled health

insurance for 47,000 children as collections this fiscal year

fell 34 percent below 2007 levels, said its January revenue was

$14.2 million above projections, the first time since March 2007

that collections exceeded forecasts.

Virginia recorded a 31.6 percent increase in corporate

taxes through February, it said on March 11. Governor Robert

McDonnell, a Republican who took office in January, increased

this year’s revenue projections by $82.5 million last month.

Improved revenues may help states replenish reserves, curb

borrowing for expenses and strengthen their debt ratings, said

Robin Prunty, credit analyst for Standard & Poor’s in New York.

“Just having predictability is a positive from a credit

standpoint,” Prunty said.

“We’ve seen the worst,” said Philip Condon, who oversees

about $9.4 billion in municipal bonds for DWS Investments in

Boston. “While it may not be great, it’s getting better.”

California Sale

DWS was among the buyers of last week’s $3.4 billion

issuance of taxable California bonds, its first such sale since

November. A scarcity of municipal debt, coupled with indications

that California’s revenue decline may have reached bottom,

attracted investors and drove down bond yields, Condon said.

“The recent uptick in revenue collections certainly didn’t

hurt us,” said Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for Treasurer Bill

Lockyer in Sacramento.

Forty-five states reduced outlays for health care, the

elderly and disabled and primary and higher education in 2008

and 2009, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said.

Lawmakers now may be able to restore spending or avoid

further reductions. California’s Chiang this month scrapped a

plan to delay tax refunds after revenue exceeded projections for

three months. In January, an impasse over the state’s $20

billion budget imbalance led S&P to cut its credit rating to A-,

the lowest of any state.

“The fact that revenues are performing better I think is

certainly the first bit of good news we’ve heard in a long

time,” said Amy Doppelt, a San Francisco-based managing

director at Fitch Ratings who follows California. Fitch last

year downgraded more than 200 municipal issuers, the most ever,

according to a March 25 report from the rating company.

Negative Outlook

S&P lowered its rating on California, Illinois and Arizona

last year and has a negative outlook on those and four other

states. Moody’s cut those three plus Nevada and Ohio, its first

state downgrades since Michigan in 2007. It’s negative on 15,

including five of the 10 largest: Florida, Illinois,

Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

Jobless rates in 18 states including Florida and Rhode

Island exceeded the national average of 9.7 percent in February.

Unemployment in most states is about double pre-recession

levels, according to the Labor Department.

Michigan, with the nation’s highest unemployment rate at

14.1 percent in February, is in its 10th year of job losses and

expects to end fiscal 2011 with the fewest jobs in 24 years.

“As the employment situation continues to be weak, income

tax revenues will continue to lag,” the Center on Budget and

Policy Priorities said in a Feb. 25 report.

Pension Expenses

As workers lose income, states face rising expenses for

Medicaid and other social services. Through March, they had

borrowed $37 billion from the federal government to cover

unemployment benefits, the Treasury Department said.

States face a $1 trillion gap between assets in public

pension plans and their obligations to retirees, a Feb. 18 study

by the Washington-based Pew Center on the States said. Illinois

borrowed $3.5 billion in January to finance its pension

contribution, which led Moody’s and S&P to cut their ratings to

the second-lowest of any state.

More Jobs

“You can’t exclude the expense side,” said Howard Cure,

New York-based director of municipal research for Evercore

Wealth Management LLC, which oversees $1.7 billion, half in

fixed-income municipals. “What really would alleviate that

situation is more jobs.”

States also have to prepare for the June 2011 end of help

from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which will

provide them with about $140 billion of aid since its inception

in February 2009.

“States may have reached the end of the beginning of a

multiyear fiscal crisis,” the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute

of Government in Albany, said in a January report. “The best to

be hoped for in 2010 may be the beginning of the end.”

Schwarzenegger Seeks Obama’s Help


[Skip to the end]

Still haven’t seen any discussion of a per capita revenue distribution to all the States?

$500 per capita would give California maybe $19 billion and be ‘fair’ to all the States.

It would also support aggregate demand (spending power) output and employment, which presumably is a national priority?

Feel free to send this suggestion to your representatives!

Schwarzenegger Seeks Obama’s Help as Budget Gap Defies Solution

By Michael B. Marois and William Selway

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) — CaliforniaGovernor Arnold Schwarzenegger wants President Barack Obama to help ease large- scale cuts to the most populous U.S. state’s already diminished social programs amid a $21 billion anticipated deficit.

Schwarzenegger, a Republican, plans to ask for relief totaling as much as $8 billion, according to a California official who asked not to be identified because details haven’t been resolved. Instead of seeking one-time stimulus money or a bailout, the state wants the U.S. to reduce mandates and waive rules stipulating minimum expenditures on programs such as indigent health care, the official said.

California has been among the states most affected by the economic recession. It has the lowest credit rating and recorded the nation’s second-highest rate of home foreclosures, trailing only Nevada. Unemployment peaked at 12.5 percent in October amid the loss of 687,700 jobs from the year before, when the jobless figure was 8 percent. Wealth declined as the stock marketlost 40 percent of its value in 2008.


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California to issue IOU’s


[Skip to the end]

Tell Arnold to make them eligible for payment of state taxes and they can forever use the IOU’s for state purchases in place of $US

July 1 (Reuters) — California prepared on Tuesday to resort to issuing IOUs as the giant but cash-strapped U.S. state struggled to approve a new budget in time for the new fiscal year that begins on Wednesday.

The IOUs, which are notes promising payment to vendors and local agencies, or shutting down some public services, are among measures that California and other states may have to rely on as they contend with staggering budget gaps caused by the U.S. recession.


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Letter to the Governor of California


[Skip to the end]

Letter to the Governor of California

Dear Governor Schwarzenegger

I note that the State of California is planning to issue IOUs
(registered warrants) from tomorrow (July 2) to ease your cash situation
in the face of the political dispute you are having over the budget with
the Democrats.

My latest blog – California IOUs are not currency … but they could be!
– analyses this situation and suggests that you “tax-empower” these IOUs
– a move that will radically enhance the options available to you. You
can read the blog here

In summary:

1. It would be economic madness to start cutting your deficit now given
the extent of labour market deterioration your state is currently
enduring.

2. The present plan to issue IOUs will hurt the most disadvantaged
members of your community because the warrants will not be readily
tradeable and it is unclear whether banks will be prepared to hold them
for the interest payment on redemption (that is, cash them).

3. You can easily eliminate this disadvantage by making the IOUs
eligible for payment of Californian state taxes and fines. This one
change to your current plan will allow you to create your own sovereign
currency and the IOUs will become widely accepted within the community.
Even those who are not being directly paid in IOUs would be happy to
hold them because they would realise they could extinguish their tax
obligations to your government using them.

4. You could then use these IOUs forever for state purchases as a
substitute for USD and avoid issuing more debt.

5. You will also be able to directly employ the 2.1 million Californian
citizens who are currently unemployed with the IOUs and start using this
idle labour to advance public purpose via community development
projects.

If you need any further advice on this please do not hesitate to
contact me.

best wishes
bill



William F. Mitchell
Professor of Economics
Director, Centre of Full Employment and Equity
University of Newcastle
New South Wales, Australia


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California


[Skip to the end]

Rather than let the states cut essential services and lay off employees with unemployment over 9%, I would give all the states an immediate $500 per capita distribution from the federal government.

It is the same voters and the same taxpayers, so per capita is the way to go.

This gives California most of what it needs and also gives the other states the same per capita distribution to use as desired.

That way it is equitable and helps support aggregate demand during this obvious shortfall.

Calif. Aid Request Spurned By U.S.

Officials Push State To Repair Budget

By David Cho, Brady Dennis and Karl Vick

June 16 (Washington Post)— The Obama administration has turned back pleas for emergency aid from one of the biggest remaining threats to the economy — the state of California.

Top state officials have gone hat in hand to the administration, armed with dire warnings of a fast-approaching “fiscal meltdown” caused by a budget shortfall. Concern has grown inside the White House in recent weeks as California’s fiscal condition has worsened, leading to high-level administration meetings. But federal officials are worried that a bailout of California would set off a cascade of demands from other states.

The administration is worried that California will enact massive cuts to close its deficit, estimated at $24 billion for the fiscal year that begins July 1, aggravating the state’s recession and further dragging down the national economy.

After a series of meetings, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, top White House economists Lawrence Summers and Christina Romer, and other senior officials have decided that California could hold on a little longer and should get its budget in order rather than rely on a federal bailout.

“After June 15th, every day of inaction jeopardizes our state’s solvency and our ability to pay schools and teachers and to keep hospitals and ERs open,” Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) said Friday.

California’s budget is also heavily dependent on taxes paid on capital gains and stock options, which have been clobbered during the meltdown of financial markets. State budget analysts made their annual estimate of revenue a month before the crisis spiked in the fall and have been backpedaling ever since.

Consider capital gains — income from sales of stocks or other assets. In California, that income dropped to $52 billion in 2008 from $130 billion a year earlier. It is estimated to be $36 billion this year.

By February, the shortfall was projected at $42 billion over two years.

To close an annual gap now put at $24 billion, Schwarzenegger and leaders of the legislature’s Democratic majority have put aside talk of tax increases to concentrate on cuts.

“A lot of the burden,” Geithner said, “is going to be on them to lay out a path that gets their deficits down to the point where they’re going to be able to fund themselves comfortably.”


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California May Pay With IOUs for Second Time Since Depression


[Skip to the end]

(email exchange)

right,

as I’ve been suggesting for a long time, all states should always pay only with iou’s.

that way they spend first, then collect taxes, just like the federal govt.

and they can deficit spend without a funding imperative as well.

>  
>  On 12/5/08, Jason wrote:
>  
>  My opinion is that the next major round of the bailout will need to be for the states… I am
>  surprised there has not been more emergency loan news out from the government as of
>  yet. Or purchases of debt from the fed etc.
>  
>  They probably want them to exhaust every budget trimming avenue first and eliminate a lot
>  of the pork. But they can’t let that process go too far with the fragility of the economy.
>  

California May Pay With IOUs for Second Time Since Depression

By Michael B. Marois and William Selway

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) — California, the world’s eighth largest economy, may pay vendors with IOUs for only the second time since the Great Depression, State Finance Director Mike Genest said.

In a letter to legislative leaders Dec. 2, Genest said the state “will begin delaying payments or paying in registered warrants in March” unless an $11.2 billion deficit is closed or reduced. California, which approved its budget less than three months ago, may run out of cash by March, state officials say.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger warned that he may issue the warrants, which are a promise to pay with interest, to suppliers and contractors as the seizure in credit markets may make it too costly to borrow.

“It’s getting worse very quickly,” Schwarzenegger, a 61-year-old Republican, told reporters Dec. 1 after declaring a fiscal emergency and ordering the Legislature into a special session to find ways to close the deficit. “It’s like an avalanche in that it gains momentum. And that’s what we’re in right now, so it’s a real crisis.”

California is reeling more than any other state from budget woes that pushed the nation’s governors to seek help from Congress. States say federal money is needed to ease the pain from spending cuts and tax increases that would be a further blow to an economy in the throes of a recession.

The warrants would be given to landscapers, carpet cleaners, construction firms, food services companies and other state vendors. They would pay an interest rate of as much as 5 percent, based on state law. California last issued the IOUs in 1992 when lawmakers and then-Governor Pete Wilson deadlocked on a budget for 61 days past the start of the fiscal year.

Higher Yields
Investors are souring on the state. California 10-year bonds yield 0.73 percentage point more than top-rated municipal bonds, according to Bloomberg indexes, the highest since the depths of the last budget crisis in Jan. 2004. By comparison, the difference for New York is 0.27 percentage point.

California Controller John Chiang said that the state’s cash account will decline to $882 million by February, below its preferred cushion of $2.5 billion, and will be negative $1.9 billion by March.

Tax collections have been hammered as the collapse of the real estate market eliminated 136,000 construction jobs in the past two years and caused consumers to curb spending. California leads the nation in home foreclosures, its 8.2 percent unemployment rate is the third-highest in the U.S., and the wealthiest 1 percent of citizens pay almost half its personal income taxes, making it sensitive to swings in the stock market.

Stock Losses
“When the market tanks those people sneeze and we in Sacramento get a cold,” said H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger’s finance department.

California’s two year budget shortfall is about $28 billion, accounting for one-third of the deficits faced by U.S. states, according to figures from the National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver.

“If the state’s having budget problems and they’re about to run out of cash, that limits their opportunity to raise money in the capital markets,” said Terry Goode, who heads up municipal bond research for Wells Capital Management in San Francisco.

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey attracted no bids from investment banks to manage a $300 million taxable note offering this week.

Biggest Borrower
California, the biggest borrower in the municipal-bond market, has $51.9 billion in general-obligation debt. It’s rated A+ by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, the fifth-highest grades, and an equivalent A1 at Moody’s Investors Service.

Even if the state runs out of cash, constitutional law stipulates that holders of California state general obligation bonds are first in line for payment by the treasury.

The budget deficit has grown even as California cut spending on health care, universities, and welfare programs. Schwarzenegger proposed a tax increase for the first time since he took office in 2003 as Democrats agreed to slash $8 billion in spending. Republicans, who have enough support to block a two-thirds majority needed to pass a tax increase, have made sure the measure has failed.

“This is not blind ideology on the part of Republicans, but our sincere belief that higher taxes will hurt the economy and lead to more uncontrolled spending,” said Assembly Republican leader Mike Villines.

Schwarzenegger’s declaration of a fiscal emergency gives lawmakers 45 days to plug the shortfall. If they fail to find a solution in that time, they are barred from doing any other legislative work until they do. The declaration came after lawmakers were unable to agree on a plan to close the gap during a three-week special session that expired Nov. 30.

“We’re just barely hanging on right now,” Chiang said. “We need strong legislative action immediately.”


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