Retail Sales Archive

Consumer sentiment, real retail sales, industrial production, wages

A bit of an uptick but still trending lower: Sales going sideways on an inflation adjusted basis: This sector seems to be doing ok: Not keeping up with inflation so probably not causing it: Lowest income earners (no college) have been catching up some, but also lagging inflation: ...Read More

New manufacturers orders, vehicle sales, unemployment claims, rents, oil prices

This component is going nowhere: Still trying to catch up from the oil capex collapse of 2016 and covid collapse: Not good: This is an all time low as people scramble to get extra jobs to deal with higher prices, like paying rent, for example: Oil prices taking a breather with the ...Read More

Saudi price hike, private payrolls, new hires, corporate profits

This could easily drive oil up past $200/barrel and trigger a serious recession. This survey/forecast is higher than precovid. The full employment report comes out Friday: Gross new hires have been trending lower: Corporate profits jumped after the covid dip and have recently flattened: ...Read More

Pending home sales, Durable goods orders, oil rigs and production

Recovered to trend but only because this chart isn’t adjusted for inflation: Nor does the narrative that consumers have gone crazy buying goods seem to be holding up: Not a lot of growth here: ...Read More

Retail sales, Consumer sentiment, NY manufacturing survey

Gone flat post covid, adjusted for inflation: The post covid slump continues, and now there are war disruptions: US Consumer Sentiment Lowest since 2011 The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 59.7 in March of 2022 from 62.8 in February, below market forecasts of 61.4, preliminary estimates showed. ...Read More

Employment, optimism index, consumer credit, consumer price index

Slowly returning to the pre covid trend: Still below the pre covid trend line: ...Read More

Car sales, ISM Services, Atlanta Fed, energy recession chart

Low and slipping: GDP tracking at 0: ...Read More

Income expectations, NY manufacturing, industrial production, retail sales

Post war slowdown continues: Below the 2018 highs, but still growing from the covid dip: Adjusted for inflation, the slope is downward: ...Read More

Optimism indexes, mtg purchase applications

Post was slump continues: Mortgage applications and housing in general remains far weaker than it was when rates were far higher and the population was a lot lower as well: ...Read More

Employment, oil

Still slowly working its way back to the pre covid trend: New rigs continue to come online, but it won’t interfere with Saudi/Russian price setting until sufficient production comes online to reduce Saudi sales. And right now sales are going up, indicating that demand for oil at the Saudi’s prices is increasing, ...Read More