Recession Archive

Niall Ferguson: No One Has The Faintest Idea When The Economy Will Recover

[Skip to the end] Harvard AND Oxford Professor, thank you! Niall Ferguson: No One Has The Faintest Idea When The Economy Will Recover by Niall Ferguson May 29 (FT) —He thinks Obama’s economic forecasts are as much of an outlier possibility as another Great Depression. He’s also concerned, as we are, that ...Read More

James Grant

[Skip to the end] (email exchange) >    >   Hi Warren. I heard James Grant speak yesterday. He was funny, entertaining, articulate >   and full of historical knowledge, but I found his monetary analysis appalling. He wants >   the U.S. (and the rest of the world) to be on a strict gold standard. >    >   It seems ...Read More

Budget surpluses and depressions

[Skip to the end] After the last budget surplus ended in 2001, Bloomberg stated it was the longest period of surplus since 1927 -1930. Prof. Fred Thayer wrote this before the surpluses of the late 90’s: Here’s part of the intro: From the origins to World War II In its first ...Read More

Re: Budget surpluses cause depressions

[Skip to the end] (email exchange) All a bunch of true but not relevant crapola. All 6 US depressions were preceded by the first 6 periods of budget surpluses. The 7th ended in 2001, as Bloomberg announced it was the longest surplus since 1927-1930. The difference now we are not on the ...Read More

Macro update

[Skip to the end] Here’s my take on the events of the last year: Paulson/Bush/Bernanke pressed a ‘weak dollar’ policy to use exports to sustain GDP, rather than a fiscal package to support domestic demand. This kept the US muddling through but took demand from the rest of world. The rest of ...Read More


Agreed that government can buy stocks to keep them from falling, as HK did. But the 1930s was a gold standard deflationary collapse. The Fed was constrained from net buying anything due to the risk of losing gold reserves. The risks are very different now with non-convertible currency/floating fx: Depression risk might ...Read More