Saudi Price Cut, Domestic Car Sales, Commercial Paper

This is how they would start a downward price spiral if that’s what they wanted:

Saudi Aramco Cuts Crude to Asia, U.S. Amid Weak Demand

By Anthony Dipaola

Oct 4 (Bloomberg) —Saudi Arabia cut pricing for November oil sales to Asia and the U.S. as the world’s largest crude exporter seeks to keep its barrels competitive with rival suppliers amid sluggish demand.
Saudi Arabian Oil Co. reduced its official selling price for Medium grade crude to Asia next month to a discount of $3.20 a barrel below the regional benchmark, compared with a $1.30 discount for October sales, the company said in an e-mailed statement. The discount for the Medium grade to Asia, the main market for Saudi crude, widened by the most since the state-owned company made a $2 a barrel cut in February 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Doesn’t look so good (Imports aren’t part of GDP):
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Here’s the foreign car sales:
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Even total sales don’t look all that stellar.

The growth rate has to match the prior year growth rate to make the same contribution to GDP:
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The rest of the bank lending charts haven’t updated yet. Will post when I get the updates.

Exports, Energy Layoffs, Tax data, Restaurant Performance Index

This is a prelude to the reality of soft exports and rising imports impacting GDP reports:

U.S. Goods Exports Plummet as Dollar Rises, Commodity Prices Fall

Sept 29 (WSJ) — Exports of goods slid a seasonally adjusted 3.2% to $123.09 billion as overseas sales of industrial supplies—which includes oil—autos, consumer goods and foods all fell, according to the Commerce Department’s advance report on trade in goods. Imports, meanwhile, advanced 2.2% to $190.28 billion on a surge in consumer goods and a smaller rise in capital goods, widening the trade gap. The goods deficit expanded 13.6% to $67.19 billion last month. The Commerce Department is due to release the full report on trade on Oct. 6.

This is still happening nearly a year after oil prices collapsed.

Energy layoffs still in progress, including nat gas companies:

Chesapeake cuts 15% of workforce on oil slump

Looks like historically this chart leads the cycle down:
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Now looking like it’s faded after oil prices collapsed, vs expectations of the opposite:
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Credit check, Jobs comment, ECRI update, Saudi statement

Commercial paper nudges down a bit, bank loans up a bit, so not much happening on balance:

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BLS Jobs Situation Disappointing in August 2015. Growth Rate of Employment Continues to Slow.

By Steven Hansen

The BLS jobs report headlines from the establishment survey was disappointing. The unadjusted data shows growth is at the lowest levels since the Great Recession. Hey, if the kids were not going back to school (teachers being hired) – this report would have been a disaster.

Rail Week Ending 29 August 2015: Shows a Decline for the Month of August

Week 34 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic expanded year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. but weekly railcar counts continued in contraction. Total rail traffic for the month of August declined 0.8 %.

28 August 2015: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Slides Deeper Into Contraction

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – slid further into negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory – and now is in its third week in negative territory. ECRI also released their inflation index this week.

Saudi confirms price cutting strategy:

U.S. Oil-Production Decline to Accelerate: Saudi Aramco Chairman

By Brian Wingfield

(Bloomberg) — U.S. crude production will decline before global oil markets recover, Saudi Aramco Chairman Khalid Al-Falih said.

“We expect the decline from the U.S. to accelerate as we go forward” because many rigs have already been demobilized, Al-Falih, who is also his nation’s health minister, said today at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington. “A re-balancing is taking place as we speak.”

Officials from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, are visiting the U.S. as King Salman meets with President Barack Obama at the White House to discuss issues ranging from regional security to energy. Global oil prices have declined by more than 50 percent within the last year as world supply has exceeded demand, triggering thousands of job losses in the energy sector.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Saudi Arabia is the largest producer, said in a report Aug. 31 it’s willing to talk to other nations about achieving a “fair” price in global markets.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, projects domestic production to decline to 8.8 million barrels a day by next August before recovering later in 2016. U.S. production in June was about 9.3 million barrels a day, according to the EIA.

Al-Falih said he’s concerned that low prices may undercut investment in the oil industry, leading to future shortages. It’s “inevitable that oil markets will recover,” he said. “We’ve already started seeing pickup in demand globally,” Al-Falih said.

Saudi Arabia is better positioned to deal with the downturn in prices because it has created budgetary buffers and accumulated international reserves to shield it from an oil-price decline, Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf said at the investment forum.

“Our strategy has proven to be the right one,” he said.

France PMI, Germany PMI, EU PMI, EU Retail Sales, UK service PMI, US Trade, ISM Non Manufacturing, Saudi Pricing

France : PMI Composite
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Highlights
French private sector activity in August expanded at a significantly slower pace than indicated in the flash report according to the final PMI data for the month. At just 50.2, a 7-month low, the key composite output index was revised down an unusually large 1.1 points versus its preliminary reading to stand 1.3 points below its final July mark and close enough to 50 to signal a period of virtual stagnation in economic activity.

The flash service sector PMI was reduced by 1.2 points to 50.6, also a 7-month trough. As previously indicated, what growth there was reflected stronger new orders and rising backlogs although the growth rate of both hit multi-month lows. Certainly firms were not confident enough to add to headcount although, rather surprisingly, business expectations still climbed to their highest level since March 2012.

Meantime, another increase in input costs saw margins squeezed still further as service provider charges continued to fall.

The final PMI figures suggest that the French economy was really struggling last month. Total output was only flat in the April-June period and the survey data so far suggest little better this quarter.

Germany : PMI Composite
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Highlights
August’s flash composite output index was revised up a full point to 55.0 in the final data for the month. The new level was 1.3 points above July’s final reading, a 5-month high and strong enough to indicate a solid performance by the economy in mid-quarter.

The adjustment to the composite output gauge came courtesy of the service sector for which the preliminary PMI was revised some 1.3 points firmer to 54.9, also its best reading in five months. New orders rose strongly, backlogs were up and employment posted its largest gain since February. Against this backdrop, business expectations for the year ahead climbed to a 4-month peak.

What little progress they continue to make will evaporate with a strong euro, which I see as inevitable given their trade surplus:

European Union : PMI Composite
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Highlights
The final composite output index for August weighed in at 54.3, a couple of ticks stronger than its flash estimate and 0.4 points above its final July mark.

The flash services PMI was nudged just 0.1 points higher but, at 54.4, now matches June’s 4-year high. Increased output was supported by rising new orders and a sizeable increase in backlogs which, in turn, helped to ensure that employment growth remained respectably buoyant. Firms also became more optimistic about the economic outlook and business expectations for the year ahead climbed higher following July’s 7-month low. Meantime, inflation developments were mixed. Hence, although higher wages and salaries prompted another rise in input costs, margins were squeezed further as service provider charges declined for a remarkable forty-fifth consecutive month.

Regionally, the best performer in terms of the composite output measure was Ireland (59.7) ahead of Spain (58.8) and Italy (55.0 and a 53-month high). Germany (55.0) also had a good month but France (50.2 and a 7-month low) all but stagnated and remains a real problem for Eurozone economic growth.

The final PMI figures suggest that the Eurozone economy is on course for something close to a 0.4 percent quarterly growth rate in the current period, a slight improvement on the second quarter’s 0.3 percent rate. While this would be good news, faster rates of expansion will likely be needed if inflation is to meet the ECB’s near-2 percent target over the central bank’s 2-year policy horizon.

European Union : Retail Sales
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Highlights
Retail sales were slightly weaker than expected in August but with July’s decline more than halved, annual growth of purchases still comfortably exceeded the market consensus. Volumes were 0.4 percent firmer on the month after a 0.2 percent drop in June for a workday adjusted yearly rise of 2.7 percent, up from 1.7 percent last time.

July’s monthly rebound was led by a 0.8 percent jump in purchases of auto fuel and without this, non-food sales were just 0.1 percent higher having only stagnated in June. Food recorded a 0.2 percent advance. As a result, overall sales in July were 0.3 percent above their average level in the second quarter when they also increased 0.3 percent.

Regionally the advance was dominated by a 1.4 percent monthly jump in Germany. Spain (0.6 percent) also made a positive contribution but France (minus 0.2 percent) saw its first decline since March. Elsewhere, there were solid gains in Estonia (2.5 percent), Malta and Portugal (both 1.1 percent) but Slovakia (minus 0.2 percent) struggled.

Growth of retail sales has slowed in recent months, in keeping with signs that consumer confidence may have peaked, at least for now. According to the latest EU Commission survey, household morale improved slightly in August but still registered its second weakest reading since January. Consumption may continue to rise over coming months but the signs are that its contribution to real GDP growth will be only limited.
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I’ve been suggesting exports would slow more than what’s been reported so far, though year over year numbers are in decline. It may show up in revisions down the road:
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International Trade
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Highlights
The nation’s trade gap narrowed to a nearly as expected $41.9 billion in July following an upward revised gap of $45.2 billion in June (initially $43.8 billion). The improvement reflects a monthly rise of 0.4 percent in exports, which were led by autos, and a 1.1 percent contraction in imports that reflected a decline in pharmaceutical preparations and cell phones which helped offset a monthly rise in imports of oil where prices were higher in July.

Aside from autos, exports of industrial supplies, specifically nonmonetary gold, were strong in July while exports of capital goods also expanded. This helped offset a monthly decline in exports of civilian aircraft and consumer goods. Turning again to imports, other details include a rise in capital goods in what is the latest sign of life for business investment.

By nation, the gap with China widened slightly, to an unadjusted $31.6 billion in the month, while the gap with the EU widened more substantially to $15.2 billion, again unadjusted which makes month-to-month conclusions difficult. Gaps with Mexico and Canada both narrowed.

This report is another positive start to the quarter and will lift early third-quarter GDP estimates. But these will be cautious estimates as recent market turbulence pushes back conclusions and will make August’s trade data especially revealing.

Lower but still indicating ok expansion:
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Saudi price setting adjustment:

Aramco Cuts All October Crude Pricing to U.S., Northwest Europe

By Anthony DiPaola

Sept 3 (Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, cut pricing for all October oil sales to the U.S. and Northwest Europe and reduced the premium on its main Light grade to Asia by 30 cents a barrel.

State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. cut its official selling price for October sales to Asia of Arab Light crude to 10 cents a barrel more than the regional benchmark, the company said in an e-mailed statement. The discount for Medium grade crude for buyers in Asia widened 50 cents to $1.30 a barrel less than the benchmark.

Brent, a global oil benchmark, fell almost 50 percent last year as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members chose to protect market share over cutting output to boost prices. Brent fell from over $100 a barrel in July 2014 to less than half that six months later. It traded at about $50 on Thursday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia decided on June 5 to keep its production target unchanged to force higher-cost producers such as U.S. shale companies to cut back. The producer group has exceeded its target of 30 million barrels a day since May 2014.

Saudi Arabia reduced production in August to 10.5 million barrels a day, the first decline this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

PMI’s, Saudi pricing, Redbook, ISM, Construction Spending

Saudi Arabia to Cut Oil Premium to Asia Buyers for Oct.: Survey

By Serene Cheong and Sharon Cho

(Bloomberg) — World’s biggest crude exporter may reduce premium by 20c/bbl for Oct. sales of Arab Light grade to Asia, accord. to median est. in Bloomberg survey of 7 refiners and traders.

Oct. Arab Light official selling price est. at 20c/bbl above Oman-Dubai bmark vs 40c premium for Sept.

Sept. OSP was raised by 50c vs increase of 70c estd. in Bloomberg survey

Fcasts from 7 participants range from no change to 30c less than OSP for Sept.

Redbook
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Still trending lower:

ISM Mfg Index
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Highlights
The ISM index, at a lower-than-expected 51.1, is signaling the slowest rate of growth for the factory sector since May 2013. And the key details are uniformly weak.

New orders, at 51.7, are at one of the slowest rates of monthly growth of the recovery, since April 2013. Backlog orders, at 46.5, are in a third month of contraction. New export orders, at 46.5, are also in their third straight month of contraction and are at the lowest rate since July 2012.

ISM’s sample wasn’t hiring much in August, at 51.2 for a 1.5 point decline from July and the weakest reading since April. Production slowed and prices paid, at only a 39.0 level last since in March, points to deflationary pressures.

The good news for the economy is that this report failed to pick up the auto-led surge that lifted the factory sector noticeably in June and July. Still, the ISM is followed closely and will raise doubts, justifiably or not, over a September 17 rate hike.
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Still climbing but note that multifamily is falling off since the NY tax breaks expired:

Construction Spending
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Highlights
Led by strength in single-family homes, construction spending rose 0.7 percent in July while an upward revision to single-family homes added to a sharp upward revision to June, up 6 tenths and also at plus 0.7 percent. Year-on-year, total construction spending was up 13.7 percent in July.

Private residential construction rose 1.3 percent in July with construction spending on single-family homes up 2.1 percent vs a 0.5 percent gain in June that was initially reported at a 0.3 percent contraction. Spending on the more volatile multi-family category, which is much smaller in scale, fell 2.2 percent after spiking 5.5 percent in June. Year-on-year, both categories show robust gains, at 15.8 percent for single-family homes and 21.2 percent for multi-family.

Turning to private nonresidential construction, spending rose 1.5 percent in the month. In gains that belie concerns over weakness in business investment, manufacturing was very strong at plus 4.7 with power and transportation both at plus 2.1 percent in the month. But spending on public construction was negative, at minus 3.0 percent for educational buildings and minus 0.2 percent for highways & streets.

Housing and construction, which are domestic sectors insulated for global volatility, are posting some of the best numbers of any sectors in the economy right now and look to give 2015 substantial support.

These numbers aren’t inflation adjusted, so you can see real construction is still far below prior levels:
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The last spike correlates with the NY tax break that ended June 15, so it may be in the process of reversing:
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Chemical Activity Barometer, Durable Goods Orders, Mtg Purchase apps, Oil Inventory

Sagging along with industrial production:
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Better than expected which is nice, but nothing to get excited about. Durable goods tend to chug along at 3 or 4% pretty much regardless of what else happens. But this time they’ve been disrupted to the downside by the oil capex collapse. And note the large year over year drop is due to the comp with last year’s spike from aircraft orders and should reverse next month, but the trend remains weak:
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Still up from last year, but more recently this year it’s been going sideways at best, and remains severely depressed:

United States : MBA Mortgage Applications
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Looks to me like increased demand and falling domestic production are doing their thing to cause WTI to converge with Brent as well as increase US imports over time:

United States : EIA Petroleum Status Report
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Highlights
A dip in imports made for a 5.5 million barrel draw in weekly oil inventories to 450.8 million. Gasoline and distillate inventories both rose, up 1.7 million and 1.4 million respectively. Demand indications for gasoline are very strong, up a year-on-year 5.8 percent. WTI bounced 50 cents higher to $39.75 in immediate reaction to the headline draw in oil before quickly easing back to $39.25.
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Oil and Gas

With prices down, drilling is down over 50%, and production is beginning to fall as well. At the same time, gasoline consumption and miles driven are both up. Therefore, some of the money saved due to lower prices is being spent to buy more gasoline, which, with domestic production falling, means more imported oil and gasoline, which does nothing for the economy. And works to weaken the $US.

EIA Petroleum Status Report
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Highlights
Oil is moving lower following a 2.6 million barrel build in weekly oil inventories to 456.2 million barrels. A rise in imports fed the build. Demand readings are very strong in this report with gasoline up very sharply, at 6.5 percent year-on-year. Refineries increased production of gasoline where inventories nevertheless fell 2.7 million barrels. The decline in prices is boosting fuel demand. WTI is down 75 cents and is below $42.
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At the same time, since natural gas is a by product of shale oil drilling, with drilling down natural gas production is that much lower than otherwise, even as demand continue to grow.

And unlike oil, natural gas is very expensive to import as it must first be liquified, so as demand increases and supply fades, the price is likely to go up to the point where imports make sense, or where utilities and others substitute other fuels for natural gas. However for the most part that would mean coal which is becoming more and more politically incorrect.

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Posted in Oil

Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Import Export Prices, Business Inventories, Japan Machine Orders, Freight Transportation, Gas Prices


This is being touted as a strong report, but, again, looks to me like it’s dropped since year end and at best is moving sideways from there, and not to forget that a large share of auto sales are imports.

But I do agree the Fed is heck bent on raising rates in Sept, even without ‘some’ improvement, and will do so unless there’s a stock market decline severe enough to hold them back. So far that’s not happening.

Retail Sales
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Highlights
Big upward revisions underscore a very solid and very important retail sales report. Retail sales rose 0.6 percent in July with June revised to unchanged from an initial reading of minus 0.3 percent and with May revised to a jump of 1.2 percent from 1.0 percent. The revisions to June and May point to an upward revision for second-quarter GDP.

Vehicle sales, as expected, were the standout in July, jumping 1.4 percent to nearly reverse June’s 1.5 percent slide and nearly matching May’s historic 1.9 percent surge. But even outside vehicles, retail sales were strong with the ex-auto reading rising a solid 0.4 percent. Restaurants, in another strong signal of consumer strength, rose an outsized 0.7 percent following June’s 0.5 percent gain. These are very strong gains for this component. Excluding both vehicles and gasoline, retail sales rose 0.4 percent, again another solid reading.

Strength in both vehicles and restaurants point to the health of the US consumer and will likely give the hawks the courage, despite all the troubles in China, to push for a rate increase at the September FOMC.

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Tough times for department store sales continue, which explains some of the weakness in construction:

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‘Some’ deterioration:

Jobless Claims
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‘Some’ deterioration for Fed hopes of higher inflation. It’s been failing to hit its target for longer than I can remember…

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Excess inventory building in June helps Q2 GDP but the likely subsequent production cuts will hurt Q3. The now persistently too high inventory to sales ratio is overdue for a correction:

United States : Business Inventories
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Highlights
Inventories rose relative to sales in June but the news isn’t that bad given that the build was centered in autos. Business inventories rose 0.8 percent in June which was well ahead of a 0.2 percent rise in sales. The mismatch lifts the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.37 from 1.36.

But retail inventories at auto dealers were to blame, up 1.4 percent in June and contributing to a 0.7 percent rise for the retail component. Inventories at manufacturers and wholesalers, the two other components of the business inventory report, also rose, up 0.6 and 0.9 percent respectively.

Inventories are on the heavy side but the concentration in autos is welcome given how strong sales are, evidenced by the 1.4 percent surge for the motor vehicle component of the July retail sales report released earlier this morning. Note that this report, along with the retail sales report, are likely to lift revision estimates for second-quarter GDP.

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Global weakness continues:

Japan : Machine Orders
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Highlights
June seasonally adjusted machine orders (excluding volatile items) declined for the first time since February. They dropped a larger than anticipated 7.9 percent on the month and were up 14.7 percent on the year. Core orders were up 16.6 percent based on the original series. This was in contrast to expectations of a 17.5 percent increase.

Core machine orders are considered a proxy for private capital expenditures. The downward move followed a 0.6 percent gain a month before. The government repeated its assessment that machine orders would advance in the third quarter.

Nonmanufacturing orders excluding volatile items were up 5.0 percent while manufacturing orders dropped 14.0 percent. All orders including volatile items dropped 6.2 percent on the month. Manufacturing orders likely softened on continued weaker export demand while the sluggish domestic economy weighs on nonmanufacturers.”

Another weak looking index:

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And I’d call this ‘some’ deterioration in the ‘labor market’. Looks like it was weakening before the 2014 oil capex boom supported it, and then has fallen off since the oil price collapse:

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This is to the point I’ve been making that surveys are one man one vote, not one dollar one vote, so optimism remained high even as retail sales, for example, were fading. Yes, a lot more people saved $10 per week on gas but an equal amount of income was reduced for sellers of oil, including those earning royalties and holding leases, and investors of all sorts, and seems the spending cuts on domestic product by that group outweighed the additional spending from pump savings.

Fueled by low pump prices, U.S. motorists to drive more in August – survey

By Jarrett Renshaw

August 11 (Reuters)

U.S. motorists are paying an average of $2.58 per gallon, nearly a dollar less than a year ago, according to AAA, the nation’s largest motorist advocacy group. And a quarter of respondents expected prices to continue to decline, up from 10 percent a month ago.

The survey found that nearly 80 percent of people say gas prices influence how they feel about the economy. And with gas prices down nearly $1 from a year ago, U.S. motorists are feeling positive about the direction of the economy, the survey found.

“There is good news for retailers as consumer optimism picks up during peak vacation season,” said NACS Vice President of Strategic Industry Initiatives Jeff Lenard.

Challenger Layoffs, Claims, Trade Comments, Saudi Price Setting, Construction Detail

Not to worry, just the army announcing layoffs:

Challenger Job-Cut Report
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Highlights
A major Army cutback made for an outsized 105,696 layoff count in July. The Army said it is cutting 57,000 jobs over the next two years (note that Challenger counts layoffs at the time of announcement, not when layoffs actually occur). Heavy layoffs, at 18,891, were also announced in computer & electronics.

These remain at historically low levels:

US weekly jobless claims total 270,000 vs 273,000 estimate

By Robert Galbraith

August 6 (Reuters)

U.S. Trade Gap Expands 7% in June

By Josh Mitchell

July 1 (Wall Street Journal)

The U.S. trade gap with other countries grew 7% in June to $43.8 billion, as imports climbed steadily while exports continued to slip. The U.S. trade gap with the European Union reached an all-time high in June as imports from Europe rose. The trade gap with Mexico also set a record. The U.S. trade deficit with China grew 9.8% in the first six months of 2015 compared with the same period last year,Wednesday’s report showed. The deficit with Japan grew 4.1%. The rise in U.S. imports was due to higher demand for consumer goods, particularly pharmaceutical items, and industrial supplies, including crude oil. Auto imports were the highest on record.

This is how the Saudis set price via altering their posted spreads to various benchmarks:

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Historically low levels and still growing at lower rates than prior cycles, so adding a lot less to GDP.
My narrative is that it’s all about a lack of income from a shortfall of private and/or public deficit spending:

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GDP Income, Saudi Oil Output, Restaurant Index

BEA Reports 2nd Quarter 2015 GDP Growing at 2.32%:

By Rick Davis

July 30 (Consumer Metrics)

Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $37,846, some -$364 per year less than the previously reported $38,210 per annum. All of that downside came as a result of revisions to the prior quarter’s data, which was revised downward by -$437 (over a full percent). Meanwhile, the household savings rate plunged to 4.8% — down -0.7% from the previously reported 5.5%.

For this revision the BEA assumed an annualized deflator of 2.04%. During the same quarter (April 2015 through June 2015) the inflation recorded by BLS in their CPI-U index was 3.52%. Under estimating inflation results in optimistic growth rates, and if the BEA’s “nominal” data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline number would show a more modest +0.89% growth rate.

Especially hard hit in the revisions were the real per-capita disposable income numbers. The cumulative compound annualized growth rate for real disposable income has been only +0.45% since the second quarter of 2008. And these figures represent mean incomes that are skewed by disproportionate growth at the upper end. According to Sentier Research, median incomes during the same time span have contracted by roughly 4%.

And household savings rates have been weaker than previously suspected, confirming the lower incomes.

Demand for Saudi oil firm and up a bit:

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Even this is sagging:

Restaurant Performance Index declined in June

By Bill McBride

July 31 (Calculated Risk Blog)

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Dampened Outlook Causes Restaurant Performance Index Decline in June

As a result of a somewhat dampened outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) declined in June for the second consecutive month. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 102.0 in June, down 0.4 percent from May and its lowest level in nine months. Despite the decline, June represented the 28th consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies continued expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

“Although same-store sales and customer traffic levels remained positive in June, the overall RPI declined as a result of dampened optimism among restaurant operators,” said Hudson Riehle, Senior Vice President of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “The proportion of restaurant operators expecting sales growth fell to its lowest level in nine months, while operators’ outlook for the economy turned negative for the first time in nearly two years.”

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The index decreased to 102.0 in June, down from 102.4 in May. (above 100 indicates expansion).

Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is “D-list” data, I like to check it every month. Even with the decline in the index, this is a solid reading.

Read more at Calculated Risk Blog