Oil Archive

mtg purchase apps, architect billings index, oil debt comments, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

Still no sign of life here: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Despite low mortgage rates, demand for mortgage purchase applications continues to be weak, down 2.0 percent in the March 13 week for a year-on-year rate of only plus 1.0 percent. Refinance applications fell 5.0 percent in the week. Rates moved lower in ...Read More

Redbook chart, GDP comment

Any sign of a consumer surge here since oil prices fell in December? ;) GDP below ‘stall speed’? ...Read More

Fed Atlanta GDP forecast falls below 2%

Now below 2% for Q1, Even with lower oil prices… ;) ...Read More

labor market index, consumer credit, China trade, BIS on oil and debt

This is the Fed’s new indicator: Labor Market Conditions Index Definition The U.S. labor market is large and multifaceted. Often-cited indicators such as the unemployment rate or payroll employment, measure a particular dimension of labor market activity. It is not uncommon for different indicators to send conflicting signals about labor market conditions. ...Read More

Saudi discounts altered

Remember when they reduced some of their discounts I suggested they may be stabilizing prices? Now they are increasing a discount, indicating they are trying to soften prices? Saudis Deepen Asia Light-Oil Discount to Low in Market Fight By Anthony DiPaola and Mark Shenk Feb 6 — State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. ...Read More

personal income/spending, labor charts and comments, ISM, construction spending, earnings chart

The mainstream assert that the drop in oil prices is an unambiguous positive for the US economy, as it’s like maybe a $200 billion tax cut for consumers. The idea is that the $ saved on oil products get spent elsewhere, increasing real spending. On the negative side they see the fall ...Read More

Saudi output

I see no sign of excess overall supply, which would show up as a drop in Saudi sales, as they set price and let the market decide how much it needs. The price cut was entirely a Saudi political decision. ...Read More

rental income from oil and gas

Looks to me like about $200 billion of annual income comes from increased oil and gas revenues over the last few years, just looking at the change in ‘slope’ and the difference between where it is now and where it would have been had the prior slope continued. And I also suspect ...Read More

ECB, Jobless Claims, Sea Container Counts, Housing Starts, Purchase apps, Architecture Billings, miles driven, Redbook sales, my take on consequences of $50 oil

Like the carpenter with the piece of wood “no matter how much I cut off it’s still too short” Draghi has yet to realize rate cuts/QE/etc. are a deflationary/contractionary bias: *DRAGHI SAYS WILL BUY UNTIL SEE SUSTAINED INFLATION IMPROVEMENT Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims have been inching higher and are not pointing ...Read More

Oil, natural gas

The narrowing spread between West Texas and Brent leads me to suspect US production is slowing: Also seems natural gas prices should be going up as shale drilling slows? Less drilling means less natural gas byproduct means tighter supplies, no? Slowing oil production just means more imports at the same price, but ...Read More