Oil Archive

So Cal home sales, Carter and the inflation of the 70’s

Up a bit vs March last year so no boom yet: CoreLogic (formerly DataQuick data): SoCal sales up 5.0% Year-over-year By Bill McBride April 20 (Calculated Risk) — CoreLogic released the Southern California report today for March (CoreLogic acquired DataQuick). The data shows 18,156 new and resale houses and condos sold in ...Read More

Saudi output

Saudis set price and let their clients buy all they want at the price settings, so their output continually adjusts to equal global demand net of all others producers. What’s clear is that said net global demand has fluctuated very little, obviating the notion that the price collapse was somehow a function ...Read More

Chicago Fed, Existing home sales

More bad new, and, again consumption down even with lower gas prices: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights The economy has indeed gotten off to a slow start this year, confirmed by the national activity index which came in at minus 0.11 in February vs minus 0.10 in January. The 3-month average ...Read More

mtg purchase apps, architect billings index, oil debt comments, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

Still no sign of life here: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Despite low mortgage rates, demand for mortgage purchase applications continues to be weak, down 2.0 percent in the March 13 week for a year-on-year rate of only plus 1.0 percent. Refinance applications fell 5.0 percent in the week. Rates moved lower in ...Read More

Redbook chart, GDP comment

Any sign of a consumer surge here since oil prices fell in December? ;) GDP below ‘stall speed’? ...Read More

Fed Atlanta GDP forecast falls below 2%

Now below 2% for Q1, Even with lower oil prices… ;) ...Read More

labor market index, consumer credit, China trade, BIS on oil and debt

This is the Fed’s new indicator: Labor Market Conditions Index Definition The U.S. labor market is large and multifaceted. Often-cited indicators such as the unemployment rate or payroll employment, measure a particular dimension of labor market activity. It is not uncommon for different indicators to send conflicting signals about labor market conditions. ...Read More

Saudi discounts altered

Remember when they reduced some of their discounts I suggested they may be stabilizing prices? Now they are increasing a discount, indicating they are trying to soften prices? Saudis Deepen Asia Light-Oil Discount to Low in Market Fight By Anthony DiPaola and Mark Shenk Feb 6 — State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. ...Read More

personal income/spending, labor charts and comments, ISM, construction spending, earnings chart

The mainstream assert that the drop in oil prices is an unambiguous positive for the US economy, as it’s like maybe a $200 billion tax cut for consumers. The idea is that the $ saved on oil products get spent elsewhere, increasing real spending. On the negative side they see the fall ...Read More

Saudi output

I see no sign of excess overall supply, which would show up as a drop in Saudi sales, as they set price and let the market decide how much it needs. The price cut was entirely a Saudi political decision. ...Read More