Oil Archive

Consumer Credit, Oil comment

Looks like the last blip up just got reversed so it continues to go nowhere and it’s at levels higher than before the last recession: Consumer Credit Highlights Revolving credit barely made it into the plus column in October, up $0.2 billion for what is, however, an eighth straight gain. Non-revolving credit, ...Read More

Payrolls, Trade

The growth rate continues to decelerate (see chart): NFP Highlights Payroll growth is solid and, though wages aren’t building steam, today’s employment report fully cements expectations for December liftoff. Nonfarm payrolls rose a very solid 211,000 in November which is safely above expectations for 190,000. And there’s 35,000 in upward revisions to ...Read More

Business Roundtable, Mtg apps, ADP, Productivity, 1 year charts

More evidence the capital spending contraction is not over: CEO Confidence Goes From Bad to Worse Dec 1 (Fox Business) — CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is dwindling. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index for the 4Q, which looks out six months, fell to the lowest level in three years ...Read More

Saudi output, Redbook sales, PMI, ISM

While demand for Saudi crude is up a bit, seems it’s still far below their presumed 12 million or so bpd capacity, and their strategy has been to lower their prices to the point where they are selling their full capacity: Nice bounce here, as the year over year comparisons get ‘easier’: ...Read More

Saudi production, Restaurant index

Just came out. Saudis still producing and selling far below their stated ‘cap’: OPEC November Crude Output Down 33,000 Bbl/Day to 32.121 Mln 2015-11-30 17:55:55.463 GMT New York, Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) — Crude-oil production from the 12 OPEC members in November declined 33,000 barrels a day from October, the latest Bloomberg survey ...Read More

Chicago index, PMI manufacturing index, Existing home sales, Saudi pricing

Still negative. This is just a composite of other indexes that have been released: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights October was a soft month for the economy but solidly improved from September, based on the national activity index which is at minus 0.04 vs September’s revised minus 0.29. October’s improvement is ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Apps, Saudi Pricing History, China

So much for housing leading the way up- looks to have gone from flat to down: MBA Mortgage Applications For the most part Saudis have been lowering premiums and increasing discounts which causes prices to fall to get their sales up to their pumping capacity: Not without a bit of pain, which ...Read More

Saudi statement, NFIB detail

This means they continue with their discount policy until their entire output capacity is being sold, and then continue to sell their full output capacity at ‘market prices’. That is, they no longer want the high priced producers to benefit from their willingness to to be swing producer and support prices by ...Read More

Saudi Output, Mtg Purchase Apps, NY ISM, ADP, International Trade, PMI services, ISM Non-manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Sales

If the Saudis are looking to pump more seems they have to continue to lower prices: Sure looks like housing still can’t get out of its own way: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage applications are settling down after spiking and dipping sharply in volatility tied to new disclosure rules put in place ...Read More

Crude Oil, Euro, Opec Spending Cuts

So when the Saudis widened their discounts on October 5 it looked to me like they were inducing a downward price spiral that would continue until either they altered pricing or their output increased to full capacity so they couldn’t sell any more at those discounts. So far neither has happened: Fundamentally ...Read More