Oil Archive

Mtg purchase apps, Car sales comments, ADP, ISM services, Exxon capex, BOJ comment

Up last week now back down as this sector remains in prolonged depression: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights The purchase index has been posting outsized gains this year but not in the January 29 week, falling 7.0 percent. The refinance index, however, did post a gain in the week, up 0.3 percent. Low ...Read More

GDP, Saudi oil production, KC Fed, Chicago PMI, Shale Italy and Japan comments

As expected, the deceleration continues, and over the next couple of years it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire year gets revised down substantially: GDP Highlights Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales, Oil capex, Business equipment borrowing, Equipment sales, New home sales

Inching up a bit but still seriously depressed: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Weekly mortgage applications have been very volatile so far this year but mostly to the upside. Purchase applications jumped 5.0 percent in the January 22 week with refinancing applications up 11.0 percent. Low mortgage rates are driving the activity, down ...Read More

ECB comment, Retail Sales, Fed Atlanta, Oil comment

Seems there’s no wisdom on the topic of ‘money’ anywhere of consequence: No ‘plan B’ for ECB despite still low inflation: Praet Jan 6 (Reuters) — Executive Board member Peter Praet said various factors, notably low oil prices and less buoyant emerging economies, meant it was taking longer to reach the goal ...Read More

Saudi pricing, Mtg purchase apps, ADP, Trade, Factory orders, ISM non manufacturing

Saudi discounts for February. Some reduced, some increased, so probably more same- prices fall until Saudi output hits its capacity: Zig zagging a lot recently, now back down to where they’ve been for a while: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage application activity fell sharply in the two weeks ended January 1, down ...Read More

Trade, Capex, Japan tax hike, Redbook retail sales, Saudi spending cuts

Not good for Q4 GDP. Remember, lower oil prices were supposed to reduce our trade deficit… ;) International Trade in Goods Highlights November’s international trade goods deficit narrowed to $60.5 billion from the revised $63.0 billion in October. October’s estimate previously was minus $58.4 billion. Expectations were for a deficit of $60.9 ...Read More

Oil prices, Existing home sales chart

This means ‘the swamp has been drained’ and falling production has eliminated the trapped oil in Cushing that caused WTI to be at a discount to Brent. In fact, Brent should trade at a discount to WTI when the shortage is fully eliminated, reflecting transportation costs to the US. This, however, does ...Read More

Saudi oil pricing, import and export prices, Japan Manufactures’ sentiment

Not a lot of change for January, most ‘discounts’ still at or near the wides, so price action likely to be more of same: Something the Fed takes into consideration: Import and Export Prices Highlights Cross-border price pressures remain negative with import prices down 0.4 percent in November and export prices down ...Read More

Consumer Credit, Oil comment

Looks like the last blip up just got reversed so it continues to go nowhere and it’s at levels higher than before the last recession: Consumer Credit Highlights Revolving credit barely made it into the plus column in October, up $0.2 billion for what is, however, an eighth straight gain. Non-revolving credit, ...Read More

Payrolls, Trade

The growth rate continues to decelerate (see chart): NFP Highlights Payroll growth is solid and, though wages aren’t building steam, today’s employment report fully cements expectations for December liftoff. Nonfarm payrolls rose a very solid 211,000 in November which is safely above expectations for 190,000. And there’s 35,000 in upward revisions to ...Read More