Karim Archive

ISM

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Modest improvement from all-time lows Anecdotals quite weak: “Difficulties with consumer and equity loans resulting from economic slowing.” (Finance & Insurance) “Business is holding steady in the economic downturn.” (Information) “Sales are okay. Credit from suppliers is becoming an issue even with a perfect payment history. ...Read More

Today’s Data

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Last data before 12/30 Mtge apps up 48% last week (MBA reports record 83% of households looking to refi). Refi apps up 48.4% on the week, purchases 10.6%. Lower interest rates now starting to help this sector, but at the expense of interest income for others. ...Read More

Payrolls

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: -533k in payrolls, and downward revisions of -199k to prior 2 mths Unemployment rate rises ‘only’ to 6.7% from 6.5% because 422k left the labor force The 2 real shockers are: Index of hours fell 0.9% for the month (after -0.4% prior mth); even adjusting for ...Read More

FOMC minutes on swap lines

[Skip to the end] The FOMC doesn’t seem to treat the swap lines any differently than the domestic lending arrangements: In view of a further widening in financial market strains internationally, the Committee considered proposals to establish temporary reciprocal currency (“swap”) arrangements with several additional foreign central banks. Members unanimously approved the ...Read More

Euro news

[Skip to the end] (an email exchange)     >   On Tue, Oct 14, 2008 at 12:30 PM, Karim wrote: >    >   BN 11:02 Lenihan Says Irish Economy to Contract Next Year by 0.75% >    >   BN 11:02 Ireland’s 1% Levy will apply to all incomes >    >   BN 11:01 Ireland’s 2% Income Levy will apply over ...Read More

ECB

[Skip to the end] (email exchange) Yes, but the inflation risks of the weak Euro may scare them. >    >   On Tue, Oct 7, 2008 at 7:11 AM, Karim wrote: >    >   Bini Smaghi is quite influential. Here he has a clear easing bias >   and is saying they may cut intermeeting. >    >   Yesterday, the ...Read More

Payrolls

[Skip to the end] From Karim: Broad-based weakness. Payrolls -159k, net revisions +4k. Unemployment rate rises from 6.055% to 6.125%. Avg hourly earnings up 0.2%. The shocker was hours worked down 0.5% and down 2% at annualized rate in Q3. Labor income = payrolls X average hourly earnings X hours worked. Hours ...Read More

Ominous warnings from Trichet

[Skip to the end] (email exchange) He gets it! >    >   On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 8:49 AM, Karim wrote: >    >   Trichet says solvency is an issue >   for governments. >    Yes! >    >   Trichet: West passing through >   most serious time since WWII. >    The largest systemic risk is in the eurozone. >    >   Trichet: ...Read More

ISM- Weak!

[Skip to the end] From Karim: Very weak both in levels and rate of change across most key components. Production, orders, employment and export orders all down 5-12 points on the month. Prices paid down 23.5 points. “We have experienced a larger-than-expected slowdown in orders during the last month.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances ...Read More

Bernanke-“Grave”

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Not a word you often see a Fed Chairman use: ….stabilization of our financial system is an essential precondition for economic recovery. I urge the Congress to act quickly to address the grave threats to financial stability that we currently face. He outlined the channels in ...Read More