ISM


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Karim writes:

Modest improvement from all-time lows

Anecdotals quite weak:

  • “Difficulties with consumer and equity loans resulting from economic slowing.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Business is holding steady in the economic downturn.” (Information)
  • “Sales are okay. Credit from suppliers is becoming an issue even with a perfect payment history. Everyone is scared. Prices for most materials declining rapidly.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “State budgets being reduced, corporate clients cancelling training, and clients not acting swiftly on proposals have brought down the backlog and lowered expectations.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Efforts continue to ramp up to control/reduce spending.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “There has been an overall decline in business. There have been some price decreases as well. Overall capital spend is significantly lower.” (Accommodation & Food Services)

ISM

Dec. 2008. Nov. 2008
Index 40.6 37.3
Prices Paid 36.0 36.6
New Orders 39.9 35.4
Employment 34.7 31.3
Export Orders 39.5 34.5
Imports 32.5 40.0


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Today’s Data


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Karim writes:

Last data before 12/30

  • Mtge apps up 48% last week (MBA reports record 83% of households looking to refi). Refi apps up 48.4% on the week, purchases 10.6%.

Lower interest rates now starting to help this sector, but at the expense of interest income for others. Much of this is offset by government, however, as the deficit continues to rise counter cyclically (the ugly way- lower revenues and higher transfer payments).

  • Initial claims rise 30k to new cycle high (and highest since 1982) of 586k; continuing claims drop 17k to 4370k

This may get a lot worse after the holidays.

  • Core PCE unch m/m and up 1.9% y/y (core inflation down 0.5% in 3mths; so much for the flat Philips curve).

Yes, but not all that big a move for a negative 7% quarter and a 70% drop in crude oil and large declines in other commodities.

  • Personal income down 0.2%, with wage and salary income down 0.1%.

Lower interest income biting.

  • Savings rate up to 2.8% from 0.8% 3mths ago

It’s not so much that people are saving as it is they are not borrowing, as total mortgage and other credit measures decline.

  • Personal spending down 0.6% m/m

Less than expected as lower fuel prices seem to be helping some.

  • Durable goods orders -1% (prior month revised from -6.2% to -8.4%) and up 4.7% ex-aircraft and defense (this measure was down 12.3% in prior 3mths so correction was expected).
  • Shipments (key for current qtr growth) down 2.6%

Falling fuel prices and automatic stabilizers increasing the federal deficit are beginning to have an effect, but this is a long, drawn out process that in the past has taken years to restore output and employment.

A full payroll tax holiday and maybe $300 billion in Federal revenue sharing with the states can cut that time frame down to months rather than years.

And, of course, without a plan to cut crude oil product consumption fuel prices can likewise quickly elevate.

The Fed is still obstructing bank functioning by demanding collateral from member banks when it lends. This is redundant and should be addressed at once.

Also, the Fed swap lines to foreign CB’s are again rising and approaching $700 billion. Not sure how this ends. Lines are scheduled to end in April, but hard to see this happening. It could turn out to be the largest international fiscal transfer of all time.


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Payrolls


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Karim writes:

  • -533k in payrolls, and downward revisions of -199k to prior 2 mths
  • Unemployment rate rises ‘only’ to 6.7% from 6.5% because 422k left the labor force
  • The 2 real shockers are:
    • Index of hours fell 0.9% for the month (after -0.4% prior mth); even adjusting for some productivity gwth, looks like real GDP in Q4 may be more like -7 to -8% vs the most recent range of estimates of -4 to -5%.
    • Diffusion index plunges from 37.8 to 27.6; support for job gwth increasingly narrow.
  • By sector
    • Mfg -85k
    • Construction -82k
    • Retail -91k
    • Finance -32k
    • Temp help -78k
    • Hospitality -76k
    • Education +52k
    • Govt +7k


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FOMC minutes on swap lines


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The FOMC doesn’t seem to treat the swap lines any differently than the domestic lending arrangements:

In view of a further widening in financial market strains internationally, the Committee considered proposals to establish temporary reciprocal currency (“swap”) arrangements with several additional foreign central banks. Members unanimously approved the following resolution, which effectively permitted the Foreign Currency Subcommittee to establish a swap line with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

“The FOMC amends paragraph 1.A. of the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations to include the New Zealand dollar in the list of foreign currencies in which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York may transact for the System Open Market Account.”

Meeting participants also discussed a proposal to set up temporary liquidity-related swap arrangements with the central banks of Mexico, Brazil, Korea, and Singapore. In their remarks, participants focused on the outlook for complementarity between these swaps and the new short-term liquidity facility that the International Monetary Fund was considering; on the governance and structure of the swap lines; and on the particular countries included. Several participants pointed to the international reserves held by the countries and the importance of ensuring that these temporary swap lines, like the others that had been established during this period, be used only for the purposes intended. On balance, the Committee concluded that in current circumstances the swap arrangements with these four large and systemically important economies were appropriate, and it unanimously approved the following resolutions.

“The FOMC directs the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to establish and maintain a reciprocal currency arrangement (“swap arrangement”) for the System Open Market Account with each of (i) the Banco Central do Brasil, (ii) the Bank of Korea, (ii) the Banco de Mexico, and (iv) the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Each such swap arrangement would be for an aggregate amount not to exceed $30 billion. Drawings under the arrangement require approval. Unless extended by the Committee, each such swap arrangement shall expire on April 30, 2009.

The FOMC amends paragraph 1.A. of the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations to include the Brazilian real, the Korean won, and the Singapore dollar in the list of foreign currencies in which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York may transact for the System Open Market Account.

The FOMC delegates to the Foreign Currency Subcommittee the authority to approve individual drawing requests of up to $5 billion under each of the aforementioned swap arrangements with the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.”

In addition, to address the sizable demand for dollar funding in foreign jurisdictions, the FOMC authorized the expansion of its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank; by the end of the intermeeting period, the formal quantity limits on these lines had been eliminated. The quantity limits were also lifted on new swap lines set up with the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. The FOMC authorized new swap lines with five other central banks during the period. In domestic markets, the Federal Reserve raised the regular auction amounts of the 28- and 84-day maturity Term Auction Facility (TAF) auctions to $150 billion each. Also, the Federal Reserve announced two forward TAF auctions for $150 billion each, to be conducted in November to provide funding over year-end. In total, up to $900 billion of TAF credit over year-end was authorized.

Despite the substantial provision of liquidity by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, functioning in many credit markets remained very poor, a situation that reflected market participants’ uncertainty about their liquidity needs and their future access to funding as well as concerns about the health of many financial institutions. To strengthen confidence in U.S. financial institutions, the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a joint statement on October 14, which included several elements. First, the Treasury announced a voluntary capital purchase plan under which eligible financial institutions could sell preferred shares to the U.S. government. Second, the FDIC provided a temporary guarantee of the senior unsecured debt of all FDIC-insured institutions and their holding companies, as well as all balances in non-interest-bearing transaction deposit accounts. The statement included notice that nine major financial institutions had agreed to participate in both the capital purchase program and the FDIC guarantee program. Third, the Federal Reserve announced details of the CPFF, which was scheduled to begin on October 27. After this joint statement and the announcements of similar programs in a number of other countries, financial market pressures appeared to ease somewhat, though conditions remained strained.

The expansion of existing liquidity facilities as well as the creation of new facilities contributed to a notable increase in the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. The amount of primary credit outstanding rose considerably over the intermeeting period, with both foreign and domestic depository institutions making use of the discount window. TAF credit outstanding more than doubled over the period. Credit extended through the Primary Dealer Credit Facility rose rapidly ahead of quarter-end; although it subsided subsequently, the amount of credit outstanding remained well above the levels seen before mid-September. The Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) auctions conducted over the intermeeting period had very high demand; in addition, dealers exercised most of the options for TSLF loans spanning the September quarter-end.


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Euro news


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(an email exchange)

   
>   On Tue, Oct 14, 2008 at 12:30 PM, Karim wrote:
>   
>   BN 11:02 Lenihan Says Irish Economy to Contract Next Year by 0.75%
>   
>   BN 11:02 Ireland’s 1% Levy will apply to all incomes
>   
>   BN 11:01 Ireland’s 2% Income Levy will apply over 100,000 Euros
>   
>   Ireland raising income taxes to pay for bank bailouts; also
>   raising VAT and fuel taxes.
>   
>   If others do same, will pressure ECB to cut rates further to offset economic impact.
>   

Yes, but rate cuts won’t offset fiscal drag.

Instead, the budget deficit will rise due to falling revenues and rising transfer payments, and Ireland’s own credit rating and guarantee of bank deposits will lose credibility.


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ECB


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(email exchange)

Yes, but the inflation risks of the weak Euro may scare them.

>   
>   On Tue, Oct 7, 2008 at 7:11 AM, Karim wrote:
>   
>   Bini Smaghi is quite influential. Here he has a clear easing bias
>   and is saying they may cut intermeeting.
>   
>   Yesterday, the Austrian CB Governor said the ECB needed to do
>   ’everything necessary’ to promote growth, similar to the
>   Bernanke comment earlier this week on using ‘all the tools we
>   have’. Even Fisher was dovish yesterday.
>   

ECB’s Bini Smaghi Says Price Pressures Waning, Reuters Reports

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said inflation pressures have become “less important” and the bank will make monetary-policy decisions when needed, Reuters reported, citing Italian radio.

“The economic situation has got worse, the inflationary pressures are always there but they are less important than in the past and we will take decisions at the appropriate time,” Bini Smaghi was quoted as saying.

While European countries have responded with different strategies to the financial crisis, the important thing is to restore confidence and Europe is “ready to do anything” to maintain stability, Bini Smaghi said, according to Reuters.


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Payrolls


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From Karim:

Broad-based weakness.

  • Payrolls -159k, net revisions +4k.
  • Unemployment rate rises from 6.055% to 6.125%.
  • Avg hourly earnings up 0.2%.
  • The shocker was hours worked down 0.5% and down 2% at annualized rate in Q3.
  • Labor income = payrolls X average hourly earnings X hours worked.
  • Hours data implies negative GDP in Q3 and very weak handoff to Q4, where some forecasts are already in -2% to -3% area for real GDP.
  • Diffusion Index down from 44.7 to 38.1.
  • Manufacturing -51k
  • Retail -40k
  • Construction -35k
  • Finance -17k
  • Temp Services -24k
  • Education +25k
  • Government +9k

BLS stated weather did not have ‘substantial’ effect on number.


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Ominous warnings from Trichet


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(email exchange)

He gets it!

>   
>   On Fri, Oct 3, 2008 at 8:49 AM, Karim wrote:
>   
>   Trichet says solvency is an issue
>   for governments.

>   

Yes!

>   
>   Trichet: West passing through
>   most serious time since WWII.

>   

The largest systemic risk is in the eurozone.

>   
>   Trichet: We must do everything
>   to preserve unity in Europe.

>   

Good luck to them!


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ISM- Weak!


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From Karim:

Very weak both in levels and rate of change across most key components.

Production, orders, employment and export orders all down 5-12 points on the month.
Prices paid down 23.5 points.

  • “We have experienced a larger-than-expected slowdown in orders during the last month.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “Steel, a main raw good for our business, has finally started showing some signs of softening a bit.” (Machinery)
  • “Business continues to slow down. Fourth quarter 2008 is going to be down 15 percent from third quarter.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Customers waiting for material price reductions in the face of falling oil prices.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Continued strong export demand across several product lines.” (Chemical Products)

Agreed, looks like a negative 4th quarter if this continues and Congress keeps buyers of everything in fear and on the sidelines.

This line is interesting as well:

  • “Customers waiting for material price reductions in the face of falling oil prices.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)

Manufacturing at a Glance
September 2008

Index Series Index September Series Index August Percentage Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend (Months)
PMI 43.5 49.9 -6.4 Contracting Faster 2
New Orders 38.8 48.3 -9.5 Contracting Faster 10
Production 40.8 52.1 -11.3 Contracting From Growing 1
Employment 41.8 49.7 -7.9 Contracting Faster 2
Supplier Deliveries 52.5 50.3 +2.2 Slowing Faster 15
Inventories 43.4 49.3 -5.9 Contracting Faster 3
Customers’ Inventories 53.5 54.5 -1.0 Too High Slower 2
Prices 53.5 77.0 -23.5 Increasing Slower 21
Backlog of Orders 35.0 43.5 -8.5 Contracting Faster 5
Exports 52.0 57.0 -5.0 Growing Slower 70
Imports 44.0 48.5 -4.5 Contracting Faster 8


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Bernanke-“Grave”


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Karim writes:

Not a word you often see a Fed Chairman use:

….stabilization of our financial system is an essential precondition for economic recovery. I urge the Congress to act quickly to address the grave threats to financial stability that we currently face.

He outlined the channels in which this impacts the economy in this paragraph:

Ongoing developments in financial markets are directly affecting the broader economy through several channels, most notably by restricting the availability of credit. Mortgage credit terms have tightened significantly and fees have risen, especially for potential borrowers who lack substantial down payments or who have blemished credit histories. Mortgages that are ineligible for credit guarantees by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac–for example, nonconforming jumbo mortgages–cannot be securitized and thus carry much higher interest rates than conforming mortgages. Some lenders have reduced borrowing limits on home equity lines of credit. Households also appear to be having more difficulty of late in obtaining nonmortgage credit. For example, the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey reported that as of July an increasing proportion of banks had tightened standards for credit card and other consumer loans. In the business sector, through August, the financially strongest firms remained able to issue bonds but bond issuance by speculative-grade firms remained very light. More recently, however, deteriorating financial market conditions have disrupted the commercial paper market and other forms of financing for a wide range of firms, including investment-grade firms. Financing for commercial real estate projects has also tightened very significantly.

When worried lenders tighten credit, then spending, production, and job creation slow.

Separately, he stated that:

  • Economic activity was ‘decelerating broadly’ and that second half growth would be ‘appreciably below potential’
  • He noted improved housing affordability but also that th
  • He cited the usual ‘over time’ for the economy to improve and that inflation would moderate ‘later this year and next’, with significant uncertainty attached to both forecasts.


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