Trade, Employment, ISM, Japan swf

Larger than expected which also means q2 GDP will be revised down some:

Highlights

The nation’s trade deficit proved a little deeper than expected in June,, at $46.3 billion vs Econoday’s consensus for $45.6 billion.

After a run of strength going back to February, exports posted a 0.7 percent decline to $213.8 billion in the month with a rise in service exports offset by a drop in goods exports where capital goods, vehicles and especially consumer goods posted declines.

Imports, in special focus of course given the tariff situation, rose 0.6 percent to a monthly $260.2 billion with consumer goods, the sore spot in the nation’s deficit, rising a sharp $2.0 billion to $53.4 billion. Oil imports were also up, rising $1.2 billion to $14.1 billion.

Country data show a deepening deficit with China, at $33.5 billion in June with the year-to-date deficit 8.6 percent wider at $185.7 billion. Other year-to-date deficits include an 11 percent deepening with Europe at $77.6 billion, a 5.5 percent deepening with Mexico at $38.0 billion, and a 23.4 percent improvement with Canada at $8.1 billion.

Though deeper than expected in June, the nation’s trade deficit has been improving though the outlook, given tit for tats on tariffs, is uncertain.


Chugging along as low participation rates and low wage growth tell me there’s still a lot of excess capacity:

Highlights

Slowing job growth may be a welcome outcome given the risk that economic activity may be pressing up against capacity limits. A 157,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls for July is at the low end of Econoday’s consensus range but is still healthy growth that is strong enough to absorb new entrants into the labor market. And revisions to prior months are favorable, a net 59,000 gain with June revised up to 248,000 and May higher at 268,000 in what were two very strong months for job growth.

The slowing in July is also favorable for the inflation outlook as average hourly earnings showed a little heat, up 0.3 percent which was expected but still firm. The year-on-year rate, at an as-expected 2.7 percent, has been steady which is a relief to Federal Reserve policy makers who are focused on keeping inflation stable at current rates.

The payroll breakdown is led by temporary help services which rose 28,000 in a very strong gain that indicates employers, stacked up with orders and backlogs, are scrambling to meet demand. Construction payrolls also standout with a strong 19,000 gain in the latest indication of strength in this sector. Manufacturing payrolls rose 37,000 to more than double Econoday’s consensus with trade & transportation, reflecting strong activity in the supply chain, up 15,000. Weakness in payrolls comes from mining, down 4,000 after a long series of gains, and also government payrolls which fell 13,000 to nearly reverse the prior month’s 14,000 jump.

The unemployment rate fell 1 tenth in July to 3.9 percent with the number of unemployed actively looking for a job down 284,000 to 6.280 million. The pool of available workers, which includes those wanting a job but aren’t looking, fell 379,000 to 11.443 million which hints at capacity limits in the labor force, again underscoring the risk of wage inflation. The participation rate holds at 62.9 percent.

Though the headline is softer than expected, this is yet another positive employment report that speaks to the strength of the labor market and the success, so far, of Federal Reserve policy.

Analysts have been crying wolf on ‘wage inflation’ for several years now:


The deceleration had seemingly reversed a year ago, but in any case employment growth is modest at best:


Hasn’t been much of a recovery:

Fyi,

I don’t see the public purpose behind this at all, of course:

Japan plans sovereign wealth fund to finance US infrastructure

(Nikkei) The Japanese government intends to create a sovereign wealth fund to invest in American infrastructure projects. The state-backed fund will support infrastructure construction along with resource development and storage, as well as invest in joint U.S.-Japanese projects in other countries. It could work with a $113 million Indo-Pacific investment initiative announced this week by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Japan is expected to offer the fund as a concrete example of economic cooperation with the U.S. at the “free, fair and reciprocal” trade talks that the two sides will launch on Aug. 9.

Employment, Auto sales, Japan

Low wage growth tells me spending remains under pressure:

Highlights

A very healthy employment report that shows brisk growth and also a movement into the workforce is headlined by a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls for June which just tops Econoday’s consensus range. A sharp rise in the number of unemployed actively looking for a job, to 6.564 million from 6.065 million in May, lifted the unemployment rate 2 tenths to 4.0 percent and also lifted the participation rate 2 tenths to 62.9 percent.

More people looking for work is not a risk for wage inflation as average hourly earnings rose only 0.2 percent on the month and held unchanged on the year at 2.7 percent. Both of these results are at the bottom of the consensus range. Hours data are mixed with the workweek for all employees unchanged at 34.5 hours but with manufacturing showing a bounce back following a May disruption in the auto sector.

The payroll breakdown is headlined by manufacturing which surged 36,000 to double Econoday’s high estimate. Construction added a sizable 13,000 with mining once again higher, up 5,000. Business is bustling and companies are turning to outside contractors with professional & business services up 50,000 and within this temporary help up 9,000, both strong gains. Showing declines, however, are trade & transportation, offering evidence that truckers are hard to find, and also a 22,000 setback for retail which had popped higher in May.

The rise in the number of people looking for a job is very good news, indicating that discouraged workers are more confident in their prospects. And very importantly, this gives FOMC members some breathing room as it reduces wage pressures and underscores Jerome Powell’s stated desire to bring more people into the workforce.


Remains depressed:


$US spent up only about 2.5% year over year:

U.S. Auto Sales Remain Strong, but Tariffs Could Squash Momentum

(WSJ) — Overall U.S. auto sales increased by 1.9% in the first half of the year. June sales increased by about 5%, according to analysts, boosted by an additional selling day compared with last year. This year, as the price of vehicles continues to rise and sales remain strong, consumers are on track to spend $215 billion on new vehicles in the first half of the year, nearly $5 billion more than the first six months of 2017, according to J.D. Power. The average new vehicle transaction price is expected to reach $32,221 for the first half of the year, a record, said J.D. Power.

The weak yen policy helped corporate profits at the expense of the consumer:

Japan household spending falls for 4th month in May

TOKYO (Kyodo) — Japanese households reduced spending for the fourth straight month in May, government data showed Friday, further clouding the outlook for economic growth in the second quarter.

Spending by households with two or more people fell 3.9 percent from a year earlier to 281,307 yen ($2,543), the biggest drop since August 2016, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

The ministry maintained its assessment that spending is “showing weakness.” Expenditures fell across a wide range, from eating out and clothing to durables such as TVs and cameras.

A ministry official who briefed reporters said that the decline was in part due to the Golden Week holiday being shorter than the previous year.

The recent weakness in private consumption, which accounts for the majority of economic activity in Japan, hurts the prospects for the country to rebound from a contraction in the January-March quarter in April-June.

Trade, Consumer credit

The trade deficit narrowed but due to a drop in consumer spending on imported cell phones, which doesn’t bode well for retail sales, which are under pressure from the reduced growth of real disposable personal income. And the widening trade gap with the euro area is fundamentally euro friendly even as fears of Italian politics are frightening portfolio managers:

Highlights

Helped by a dip in cellphone imports, the nation’s trade gap narrowed sharply in April to a much lower-than-expected $46.2 billion. Cellphone imports fell $2.2 billion to pull down the consumer-goods deficit which narrowed by $2.8 billion in the month.

Despite the improvement for consumer goods, the bilateral gap with China rose a noticeable $2.1 billion to an unadjusted $28.0 billion in results that probably won’t ease ongoing trade friction. Note that country data, unlike other data in this report, are traditionally tracked in unadjusted terms due to small monthly totals yet adjusted data for China are available and tell a different story with the gap at a higher level of $30.8 billion but down in month-to-month terms from an adjusted $34.2 billion in March.

Turning back to unadjusted country data, the gap with Europe also deepened, by $2.5 billion in April to $14.6 billion with the Japanese gap little changed at $6.3 billion. Turning to North America, the gap with Mexico narrowed by $2.4 billion to a deficit of $5.7 billion while a small March surplus with Canada turned into a $785 million deficit in April.

Imports of iron and steel mill products rose $228 million to $2.1 billion with imports of bauxite and aluminum up slightly to $1.5 billion. It will be interesting to watch whether these totals, due to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, begin to slide in the month’s ahead.

Overall, exports rose 0.3 percent in the month to $221.2 billion with goods, led by a gain for industrial supplies and also food, up 0.2 percent at $141.3 billion and despite a 0.1 percent slip in service exports which totaled $70 billion. Imports fell 0.2 percent with goods, again reflecting the weakness in cellphones, down 0.3 percent to $209.5 billion and services up 0.6 percent to $47.9 billion.

April’s deficit is more than $1 billion narrower than March and far under the $53.1 billion monthly average of the first quarter. This points to a big net-export lift for second-quarter GDP.

The petroleum deficit appears to have leveled off, while trade overall still looks to be trending further into deficit, recognizing the volatility around year end:


Deceleration continues:

Highlights

Consumer credit rose a lower-than-expected $9.3 billion in April though consumers did run up their credit-card debt slightly as revolving credit, which was in the negative column the last two reports, rose $2.3 billion in the month. Nonrevolving credit, which includes student loans and also vehicle financing and which often posts double-digit gains, rose only $7.0 billion in the month.

Mtg apps, Jolts, Trade

Still going nowhere:

Highlights

The volume of purchase applications for home mortgages remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in the February 2 week, while refinancing applications rose 1.0 percent from the previous week despite the headwind of rising interest rates. Unadjusted, purchase applications increased 7 percent from the previous week, though the year-on-year gain shed 2.0 percentage points to 8 percent. The refinancing share of mortgage activity fell 1.4 percentage points to 46.4 percent, the lowest level since July 2017. Mortgage rates continued to rise and accelerated their climb in the week, with the average interest rate on 30-year fixed rate conforming mortgages ($453,100 or less) up 9 basis points to 4.50 percent, the highest level since April 2014.

Worse than expected, but prior month revised higher, and still looking like a top to me:

Highlights

In bad news for fourth-quarter GDP revisions, the nation’s trade gap widened more sharply than expected in December, totaling $53.1 billion which just tops Econoday’s low estimate. Imports swelled by a steep 2.5 percent in the month to $256.5 billion which is a direct subtraction from GDP. The good news in the report is a solid 1.8 percent rise in exports to $203.4 billion which will add to GDP.

Imports of goods rose 2.9 percent to $210.8 billion with imports of services up 0.6 percent to $45.7 billion. Imports of consumer goods is the Achilles heel, at $55.5 billion for a 6.1 percent rise in the month.

Exports of goods, led by a strong rise in capital goods to $47.4 billion, rose 2.5 percent to $137.5 billion while growth in export of services remains slow, up only 0.2 percent to what is however a very positive $65.9 billion that does its share to hold down the total deficit.

Petroleum imports fell sharply to $15.8 billion as a decline in volume more than offset a rise in price. Exports of petroleum continue to catch up, at $12.5 billion for what is a modest petroleum deficit of $3.3 billion.

Country totals are in for full-year 2017 goods deficits and they are sizable: China up 8.1 percent on the year at $375.2 billion; EU up 3.2 percent at $151.4 billion; Mexico up 12.2 percent at $71.1 billion; Japan up fractionally at $68.9 billion; and Canada up the most by far in percentage terms, 63 percent higher to $17.6 billion.

Demand for foreign goods is bad for GDP but it does point to a very strong national appetite. Exports are on the rise which reflects the strength of global demand and also the decline in the dollar which, on the varying measures, fell about 10 percent during last year. For GDP which came in at an initial 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter and was held down heavily by net exports, today’s data look to be an even bigger negative for the second estimate later this month.

Trade, Redbook retail sales, PMI services, ISM services

As previously discussed, the US bill for oil imports went up:

Highlights

Fourth-quarter net exports get off to a weak start as October’s trade deficit, at $48.7 billion, comes in much deeper than expected and well beyond September’s revised $44.9 billion. Exports, at $195.9 billion in the month, failed to improve in the while imports, at $244.6 billion, rose a steep 1.6 percent. Price effects for oil, up more than $2 to $47.26 per barrel, are to blame for much of the rise in imports inflating costs of industrial supplies including crude where the deficit rose $1.5 billion to $10.7 billion, but consumer goods are also to blame, imports of which rose $800 million in the month to $50.0 billion.

Exports of capital goods are the largest category on the export side and they fell back $1.2 billion to $43.9 billion and reflect a $1.1 billion drop in aircraft where strength in orders, however, points to better aircraft exports to come. Exports for both vehicles, at $12.6 billion, and consumer goods, at $16.3 billion, both declined.

Country data show the monthly gap with China deepening $600 million to $35.2 billion and with Japan by $1.6 billion to $6.4 billion. The EU gap widened by $2.3 billion to $13.7 billion. The gap with Mexico rose $900 million to $6.6 billion and Canada $1.5 billion deeper at $1.8 billion.

Today’s report is not favorable for fourth-quarter GDP but doesn’t derail at all what has been an ongoing run of mostly solid economic results.

Looks like things are settling down:

Highlights

Same store sales were up 3.0 percent year-on-year in the December 2 week, decelerating by a steep 1.5 percentage points from the prior week’s pace. Month-to-date sales versus the previous month were down 0.9 percent, 0.7 percentage points weaker than last week’s reading, while the gain in full month year-on-year sales shed 0.5 percentage points to 3.0 percent. The week’s sharp setback from the strongest reading in 3 years registered in the prior week by retailers in Redbook’s same-store sample may signal more moderate growth in ex-auto ex-gas retail sales during the key Christmas sales period.

The surveys are starting to come off their trumped up levels:

Markit PMI services:


ISM non manufacturing:

Employment, Trade, M2, Public employment, Rig count

More than the entire gain in civilian employment seems to have been via part time work:

Highlights

The second half of the year opens on a strong note as nonfarm payrolls rose 209,000 in July, far above Econoday’s consensus for 178,000. The unemployment rate moved 1 tenth lower to 4.3 percent while the participation rate rose 1 tenth to 62.9 percent, both solid positives. And a very strong positive is a 0.3 percent rise in average hourly earnings though the year-on-year rate, at 2.5 percent, failed to move higher. The workweek held steady at 34.5 hours.

Factory payrolls are coming alive, up 16,000 in July following a 12,000 increase in June. This points to second-half momentum for manufacturing and is a positive wildcard for the economy in general. A similar standout is professional & business services, up 49,000, and within this temporary help services which rose 15,000. Gains here suggest that employers, pressed to find permanent staff, are turning to contractors to keep up with production. Government was a big factor in June, up 37,000, but was quiet in July at a gain of 4,000. Total revisions are a wash with nonfarm payrolls revised 9,000 higher in June and 7,000 lower in May.

Employment has by far been the strongest factor in the economy and the strength in today’s report will firm conviction among Federal Reserve policy makers that increasing wage gains, and with this increasing inflation, are more likely to hit sooner than later.

From the household survey:

If there was a blemish in the month’s numbers, it came from the distribution of jobs to lower-income sectors. Job creation was strongly titled to part-time, which gained 393,000 positions, while full-time fell by 54,000.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/us-nonfarm-payrolls-july-2017.html

No hint yet of this trend reversing:

Highlights
At $43.6 billion, the nation’s trade deficit came in below Econoday’s consensus for $44.4 billion which will prove a plus for second-quarter GDP revisions. The goods gap fell 3.2 percent to $65.3 billion (vs the advance reading of $63.9 billion) while the services surplus, which is the economy’s special strength, rose 2.9 percent to $21.6 billion.

Exports show a bounce higher for capital goods despite a dip in aircraft. Exports of cars and food were also strong offsetting a decline for consumer goods. Imports of industrial supplies and within this crude oil fell as did imports of consumer goods. This helped offset a sharp rise in car imports. Imports of capital goods were flat.

The trade gap with China widened nearly $1 billion in June to $32.6 billion and narrowed slightly with the EU to $12.5 billion. The gap with Japan also narrowed slightly, to $5.6 billion, and narrowed sharply with Mexico, by $1.3 billion to $6.0 billion. The gap with Canada also narrowed, to $0.6 billion.

Except for the widening with China and weakness in consumer-goods exports, this is a positive report showing that cross-border trade ended the quarter with solid improvement.

M2 includes bank deposits at the Fed and commercial banks, and as loans create deposits, it’s a proxy for bank loan growth. And while it is ‘distorted’ by QE most recently the Fed’s portfolio has be relatively constant. So note the same pattern of deceleration as with bank lending:

So Trump is winning on this one- more new public sector workers than Obama! ;)

The public sector grew during Mr. Carter’s term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan’s terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush’s term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton’s terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush’s terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).

However the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 268,000 jobs).

During the first six months of Mr. Trump’s term, the economy has gained 47,000 public sector jobs.
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#bXBCMVBXZXBLuHDB.99

Rig counts seem to have leveled off at current prices. Yes, a bit more is being spent on drilling, and output is up, but oil related capital spending is nowhere near the 2014 growth in oil related spending that was subsequently lost:

Highlights

The Baker Hughes North American rig count is down 7 rigs in the August 4 week to 1,171, interrupting its upward climb for only the second time in the last 14 weeks. The U.S. count is down 4 rigs to 954 but is up 490 rigs from the same period last year. The Canadian count is down 3 rigs to 217 but is up 95 rigs from last year.

For the U.S. count, rigs classified as drilling for oil are down 1 rig to 765 and gas rigs down 3 to 189. For the Canadian count, oil rigs are down 5 rigs to 124 but gas rigs are up 2 to 93.

Factory orders, Trade, Chain store sales

Highlights

Factory orders, like much of the economy, fizzled in March, up only 0.2 percent and skewed higher for a third month in a row by aircraft. The split between the report’s two main components shows a 0.5 percent dip for nondurable goods — the new data in today’s report where weakness is tied to petroleum and coal — and a 0.9 percent rise for durable orders which is 2 tenths higher than last week’s advance report for this component.

The gain for durables looks impressive but when excluding transportation equipment (which is where aircraft is tracked) orders fell 0.3 percent. But core capital goods orders are a plus in the report, rising 0.5 percent (nondefense ex-aircraft) though the gain follows marginal increases of 0.1 and 0.2 percent in the prior two months.

Unfilled factory orders, which had been in long contraction, are a clear plus, up 0.3 percent following February’s 0.1 percent gain for the best back-to-back showing in 2-1/2 years. A negative however is a 0.1 percent decline in total shipments that came despite a constructive 0.5 percent rise in shipments of core capital goods. Inventories were unchanged in the month though the dip in shipments drove the inventory-to-shipments ratio 1 tenth higher to a less lean 1.32.

Aircraft had a weak year last year and have been making up lost ground so far this year. But how long Boeing can give total orders a lift is uncertain, and the performance of the wider factory sector, despite sky high strength in many anecdotal reports, has been no better than mixed.

Both imports and exports down which isn’t a good sign for GDP, as the trade deficit seems to be slowly working its way higher. Also, there was more evidence that the reported positive spike in nonresidential investment for Q1 is suspect:

Highlights

A decline in imports held down March’s international trade gap to $43.7 billion which is moderately under Econoday’s consensus for $44.5 billion. But the breakdown doesn’t point to cross-border strength as exports fell 0.9 percent to $191.0 billion in the month against a 0.7 percent decline for imports at $234.7 billion.

The petroleum gap widened sharply in the month to a nearly 2-year high of $7.9 billion and reflects higher prices for imports and a decline in exports. Exports showing the most weakness are industrial supplies, autos, and consumer goods. Foods rose slightly in March as did the key category of capital goods which otherwise has been flat.

On the import side most components are lower especially capital goods in what, along with capital goods shipments and nonresidential construction spending, is another contrast with the first-quarter GDP surge in nonresidential investment. Contrasting with the weakness in imports is a rise in imports of autos, up a sharp $1.2 billion in the month to $30.3 billion.

Country data are in line with trend: the nation’s trade gap with China totaled $24.6 billion in the month followed by the EU at $11.2 billion with Japan at $7.2 billion and Mexico at $7.0 billion. Canada is next at a distant gap of $1.4 billion.

Breaking down the data between goods and services shows a small widening in the goods deficit to $65.5 billion offset in part by a modest looking but still constructive $0.4 billion dollar rise in the surplus on services. The overall decline in exports and imports is a concern, but today’s report has several positives, not only the surplus on services but also the rise in capital goods exports. Today’s report should give a modest and badly needed lift to revision estimates for first-quarter GDP.

Highlights

Chain stores are reporting mostly stronger rates of year-on-year sales growth for April, a month however that got a big boost from this year’s Easter shift out of March. Sales reports from chains are in year-on-year terms only and are not adjusted for calendar effects such as the shift in Easter which is a major holiday for the retail sector. The best way to look at chain-store sales during Easter shifts is to take both March and April together and with this comparison, stores are mostly downbeat. Weakness in consumer spending has been the dominant feature so far of the 2017 economy.

Trade, Manufacturing new orders, Redbook retail sales, GDP forecasts

The trade deficit was a bit less than expected, all due to lower imports. The question is whether this means there were more domestic purchases, whether this is an indicator of lower aggregate demand:

Highlights
In favorable news for first-quarter GDP, the nation’s trade gap hit Econoday’s low estimate in February at $43.6 billion and reflects a 1.8 percent drop in imports but only a 0.2 percent gain for exports. The goods deficit came in at $65.0 billion vs $64.8 billion in last week’s advance report for February with the services surplus at $21.4 billion which is unchanged from January (there’s no advance report for services).

It has been strong demand for foreign consumer goods and foreign autos that has been a central factor behind the nation’s trade deficits, and the news in February, at least in terms of the deficit, is positive. Imports of consumer goods fell to $49.0 billion which is down a very sizable $3.1 billion from January. Imports of autos fell to $29.1 billion for a $2.7 billion decline. Offsets include a $1.3 billion rise in crude oil imports to $13.0 billion reflecting a sharp monthly increase of $1.31 per barrel to $45.25 along with a slight rise in volumes per day.

The export side, despite the fractional gain, is less constructive. Exports of capital goods extended their flat-to-lower trend, down $0.6 billion in the month to $42.9 billion and due entirely to civilian aircraft. Exports of foods fell $0.7 billion with nonmonetary gold down $0.4 billion. A positive is a $0.7 billion upturn in exports of consumer goods to $17.1 billion. Less positive, however, is a flat month for services where exports were unchanged at $64.4 billion with the surplus relative to $43.0 billion in service imports once again flat at $21.4 billion. Services have been the strength of the U.S. trade picture.

Country data show the trade deficit with China at $23 billion in the month followed by the EU at $9.4 billion, Mexico at $5.8 billion, Japan at $4.7 billion and Canada at $2.1 billion. Note that country data are unadjusted which makes monthly comparisons difficult especially given February’s 28 days vs January’s 31 days.

For GDP these data are very positive and help offset not only January’s large trade deficit but also what’s evolving as a weak quarter for domestic consumer spending. For cross-border trade, this report is not upbeat, showing less demand for goods and services both here and abroad.

Manufacturing continues to drift sideways, as per the chart. And note that vehicle sales have softened considerably since this report and aircraft orders are likely to revert:

Highlights

Factory orders may not be showing the same kind of strength that the ISM and Philly Fed are pointing to but they are solid, hitting Econoday’s February consensus at a 1.0 percent gain. Adding to the strength is a 3-tenth upward revision to January which is now at a 1.5 percent gain that follows December’s unrevised 1.3 percent rise.

The durables side of the report, up 1.8 percent in the month (revised from 1.7 percent in last week’s advance data), reflects a second month of outsized strength for aircraft, at a 56 percent monthly gain vs January’s 188 percent surge. But durables also include a respectable 0.3 percent gain for vehicles. Nondurable goods inched 0.2 percent higher on strength in chemicals (there is no advance report for nondurables).

But there are cracks that perhaps betray the strength and one is a second weak month for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) where orders fell 0.1 percent after managing only a 0.2 percent gain in January. Yet given strength of prior orders, shipments of core capital goods — which are an input into first-quarter GDP — rose a very solid 1.0 percent to help offset January’s disappointing 0.4 percent decline. This is an important positive for first-quarter GDP which had been slipping.

Turning back to weaknesses, total unfilled orders were unchanged in February to extend a nearly yearlong streak of disappointment. Lack of unfilled orders will not spark demand for factory hiring. Inventories rose 0.2 percent in line with a 0.3 percent rise in total shipments to keep the inventory-to-shipments ratio unchanged at 1.31.

Another question in this report is the two months of reliance on aircraft orders where strength cannot be expected to extend indefinitely, to say the least for this volatile component. And this morning’s trade report poses further questions especially for capital goods exports which have been stubbornly flat. Still, on a total basis, factory orders are showing the directional lift that advance anecdotal reports have been signaling with rare strength.

Note how the charts show we’ve yet to recover to 2008 levels, and these numbers are not adjusted for inflation:


This measure of retail sales growth collapsed when oil capex collapsed and remains depressed:


Note how the other forecasts have been working their way down towards the Atlanta Fed’s forecast:

Border tax comments, Redbook retail sales, International trade, Consumer confidence

So they used to tell the story about a guy who claimed he could make cars out of wood, and he started a company in Oregon that brought trees into one door of his giant building with new cars coming out of another door, and he wouldn’t let anyone inside to see how it was done. He was given a award for innovation and widely acclaimed, until one day someone got inside and saw he was shipping the trees out the back to Japan and bringing in new Korean cars. He was then arrested and jailed, etc. etc.

Point is, for the macro economy it didn’t make any immediate difference what was going on behind those closed doors, and that for purposes of understanding one can think of a nation’s foreign trade as similar to a company that takes in all that it can export and delivers back whatever is imported.

This model also promotes the understanding of how, in real terms, exports are the costs of imports, and optimizing real terms of trade is about getting the most cars for the fewest trees, which is likewise what first-pass productivity is all about for the domestic economy.

What about the jobs lost due to increased productivity? Well, history shows it used to take 99% of the workforce to grow the food we need to eat to live, and today in the US it takes maybe 1% of the workforce to grow enough food to eat with a lot left over to export. Yet unemployment isn’t necessarily any higher today than it was back then. Why? Because there’s always a lot more we think needs to get done than there are people allowed to do it, and unemployment comes from a lack of funding, and not a lack of things to day. Today the service sector dominates, and more so every day, with no lack of services we’d like to have done as far as the eye can see. And unemployment, as currently defined, is necessarily the evidence that for a given level of govt. expenditure the economy is that much over taxed, as a simple point of logic. Not that policy makers understand that, of course…

Now let’s add a border tax to the model, for the purpose of creating jobs, not withstanding how that premise is categorically ridiculous, as per the prior discussion. But, to quote Don Rumsfeld, ‘We’ve got to fight with the army we’ve got.’ Anyway, a border tax would put a tax on importing the cars to attempt to keep us from buying them so we would have more jobs building cars domestically, and reduce the tax on exporting the trees so we would have more jobs cutting down and shipping out trees.

Let’s assume that that’s what happened and then look at the consequences. First, we would be shipping out more trees and getting fewer cars. This makes the nation as a whole worse off due to those reduced real terms of trade. The next step is to identify the winners and losers, recognizing the losses to our standard of living are higher than the gains. Best case: we put more people to work growing more trees so we have just as many trees for ourselves, and we’d put more people to work building cars so we’d have just is many cars as before. So what we accomplished is that we are working more to be left with the same amount for ourselves.

That’s called a drop in productivity, and a decline in our standard of living, since work is an input and a real cost of production. Work itself is not an economic benefit. The economic benefits of work is the output produced. And the whole point of producing output is consumption of some type, either for immediate use or for future use. That is, it makes no economic sense to work and produce output for the purpose of immediately throwing it away.

So with the above ‘best case’ assumptions, the border tax does work to create jobs, and unemployment is a political problem, which is why the border tax has that element of political appeal. Not that it matters, but my first choice for job creation would be a fiscal adjustment, either a tax cut or spending increase, large enough to promote sufficient spending to increase sales, output, and employment, in order to produce that additional output. That way we have that much more domestic output to consume plus all the imported cars we were buying before the border tax, and we don’t have to give away the extra trees due to the border tax proposal.

And how does it look from the government’s point of view?
First, the government expects extra revenue from the tax on the imported cars, net of the revenue lost from tax benefits for exporters. This means less spending power for consumers paying the tax, presumably offset by new tax cuts, making it all revenue neutral, which – through some presumed channels – is theorized to have its own positive consequences.

So in this ‘best case’ scenario Americans work more and get less, while consumer taxes go up while other taxes go down. Once thought through, that whole topic hardly seems worth a second look?

But that is only the economic best case scenario. All kinds of other things can happen, with the same model used for purposes of analysis.

More later…

This used to run between 3% and 4% before the collapse In oil capex:


A bit ‘better’ than expected, to use mainstream values, and note the details in the narrative are not so ‘good’:


Seriously trumped up consumer expectations continue:

Trade, Consumer credit

As previously discussed, trade looks to be more negative in q1 than it was in q4:

Highlights

January’s trade deficit came in very deep but at least right on expectations, at $48.5 billion and reflecting a surge in foreign consumer and vehicle imports and higher prices for imported oil.

January imports rose 2.3 percent from December to $197.6 billion with imports of consumer goods jumping 2.4 percent to $52.1 billion and with vehicle imports up 1.3 percent to $13.6 billion. Petroleum imports totaled $15.3 billion in the month, up 19 percent and reflecting both higher prices, at $43.94 per barrel vs December’s $41.45, and a rise in volumes, at 8.4 million barrels per day vs 7.7 million.

Though dwarfed by imports, exports did rise 0.6 percent to $128.0 billion led by industrial supplies (where higher oil prices are at play) and also a 1.3 percent gain for vehicle exports to $13.6 billion as well as a $0.6 billion gain for foods. Exports of capital goods fell a sharp 1.9 percent to $43.5 billion in a decline that only partially reflected aircraft. Exports of services, usually the strength for the U.S., were unchanged in the month at $64.1 billion.

Unadjusted country data show a monthly widening with China, to a monthly deficit of $31.3 billion, and a widening with Canada, at $3.6 billion. Deficits narrowed with the EU, to $11.5 billion, with Japan, to $5.5 billion, and with Mexico, to $4.0 billion.

Strong demand for foreign goods and light demand for U.S. services and capital goods is not a favorable mix for GDP. This report puts first-quarter GDP on the defensive.

Higher oil prices and the end of the one time surge in soybean exports, etc:


A lot worse than expected:

Highlights

Consumers held back on credit-card borrowing in January as nonrevolving credit fell $3.8 billion for the first monthly decline since February last year and the largest since December 2012. But nonrevolving credit, where vehicle financing and student loans are tracked, rose a respectable $12.6 billion and offers a reminder that overall credit growth, including revolving credit, has been steady. Yet, at least for January, nonrevolving credit couldn’t offset the weakness in revolving credit as total credit increased only $8.8 billion for the smallest rise since July 2012.