Inflation Archive

Employment, Consumer credit, Social security comment, Corporate debt, Party affiliation

Year over year growth has been decelerating for all practical purposes in a straight line, as per the chart. And the downward revisions in prior months are further evidence of the weakness which began with the collapse in oil capex at the end of 2014. And wage growth increased at least partially ...Read More

Factory orders, Corp spending, Equity comment

You can see from the longer term charts not much to write home about here: Highlights Increasing strength in capital goods is the good news in today’s factory orders report where a headline 1.2 percent gain is 2 tenths above Econoday’s consensus. The split between the report’s two main components shows a ...Read More

Credit check, Expectations vs spending, Inflation, Comments on Fed policy

You may be hearing about ‘spike’ in lending last week, so I’ll try to give you some perspective using commercial and industrial lending charts before just showing year over year changes: In this 10 year chart you can see how the growth in lending suddenly slowed back in November 2016. You can ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Consumer sentiment

July Personal income revised down to .3 and August only .2 further confirms income growth- the driver of consumption- has slowed down in line with the deceleration in bank lending, and the same seems to be the case with spending, with weak price indicators further confirming the same weak demand narrative. And ...Read More

GDP revision, Inventories, Corporate profits, Trump fundraiser

Revised higher due to inventory building- not good- and weak prices also tend to indicate low demand. And note how q3 gdp estimates have been coming down as well: Highlights Second-quarter GDP proved strong, at an as-expected 3.1 percent annualized rate for the third estimate driven by consumer spending at a 3.3 ...Read More

Chicago Fed, Small business optimism, NY Fed comments

Note the shift: From NY Fed’s Dudley. I added a chart after several of his statements so you can see what he sees as support for his statements. Looks a lot to me like he’s trying to manage expectations? “The fundamentals supporting continued expansion are generally quite favorable. Low unemployment, sturdy job ...Read More

Euro reserves, Small business survey, Municipal revenues

Trumped up expectations continue even as earnings deteriorate: As U.S. Economy Improves, Cities May Be Headed for Another Downturn Cities may be facing a new period of economic stress — even as the national economy continues to improve. According to a National League of Cities (NLC) report released on Tuesday, municipal finance ...Read More

JOLTS, Redbook sales, Rig count, Credit check, NK comment, PMC jersey

Openings higher than hires tells me employers don’t want to pay up, which is also suggested by low wage growth: Highlights In the latest indications of strong, tight conditions in the labor market, job openings rose to a higher-than-expected 6.170 million in July for a 0.9 percent increase from June. Hirings also ...Read More

Employment, Construction spending, Auto sales, Tax plan and debt ceiling

Weaker than expected, downward revisions, depressed earnings growth and participation rate. And note how the year over year growth has been going down now in, for all practical purposes a straight line, for over 2 1/2 years, when the shale boom ended and oil capex collapsed: Highlights August payroll growth, though solid, ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Pending home sales

Personal income growth remains weal as per the charts, which also showed a sharp drop in the personal savings rate, which generally forecasts reductions in spending: Highlights Vital signs for the consumer are strong but inflation is completely lifeless, based on a mixed personal income & outlays report for July. Income is ...Read More