Inflation Archive

Industrial production, Empire state manufacturing, Retail sales, PMI, Port traffic

Boring: Highlights A rise for mining offsets a dip for utilities making a modest 0.2 percent gain for manufacturing the story for November’s industrial economy. This report’s manufacturing component has been the only uneven indicator on the factory sector all year which limits the surprise of November’s results. Forecasters weren’t calling for ...Read More

Employment, Consumer sentiment, Inventories

Higher than expected but last month revised lower, so seems best to wait a month (and sometimes more) for the revisions before passing judgement. And the wage data, if anything, is that of a very low demand economy with lots of excess capacity: Highlights Overheating may not be the description of the ...Read More

Factory orders, Cash bonuses, Oil prices

As the chart shows, year over year growth has gone to near 0 since the election, and the hurricane replacement effect has since dissipated: Highlights A big upward revision to core capital goods highlights today’s factory orders report which closes the book on what was a mixed October for manufacturing. The month’s ...Read More

Construction spending, Rig count, Fed US leading index, Flynn news

Up a bit this month but as per the chart it’s bumping along at recession type levels: Highlights It’s not housing that drove construction spending up a very sharp 1.4 percent in October but non-residential activity which had been lagging in this report. Spending on private non-residential construction jumped 0.9 percent in ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Chicago PMI, corporate profits, Comments on tax reform

Income a bit higher than expected due to higher interest income, but as per the charts income growth has slowed and seems the only thing keeping spending growing even at these very modest levels is consumers dipping into savings: Highlights Inflation is showing the slightest bit of life yet probably more than ...Read More

Trade, New home sales chart, Redbook retail sales, Consumer confidence

As previously discussed, the food export spike was a one time event: Highlights With housing and manufacturing showing strength the outlook for fourth-quarter GDP was building, until that is this morning’s advance trade and inventory data. October’s goods deficit was much higher-than-expected, at $68.3 billion for a very sizable $4.2 billion increase ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Durable goods orders

I don’t see any convincing evidence of a housing market revival, particularly with the growth of real estate lending remaining well below that of last year: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 5 percent in the November 17 week, though overall mortgage activity was only barely higher (by ...Read More

Industrial production, Household debt, Business sales and inventories, Container counts, Animal trophies

A dip and a recovery due to the hurricane (as per vehicle sales data), chugging along at modest rates of growth, and still down from high a couple of years back, not adjusted for inflation: The NY Fed reports household debt growth decelerated in q1, in line with the deceleration in bank ...Read More

Personal income and spending, GDP, Trump meeting, North Korea tests

Personal income growth continues to be depressed, which tends to keep spending down as well over time, though this month it had a nice one time increase due to the hurricanes, and the drop in the personal savings rate tells me it’s entirely unsustainable. Also the low inflation readings also support the ...Read More

New home sales, Durable goods orders, Vehicle sales

Nice uptick, but subject to revision and at best indicating continued very modest growth well below the last cycle with a population that’s maybe 10% higher than it was 10 years ago: Highlights Volatility tied to low sample sizes is what the new home sales report is known for, proving its reputation ...Read More