Inflation Archive

Michigan Consumer sentiment, CPI, Texas employment, rail traffic, apartment market

Again, this is one man one vote, not one dollar one vote: Consumer Price Index Highlights Higher energy prices coming up from low levels boosted the CPI. But the trend is still soft. Overall consumer price inflation rose 0.2 percent after rebounding 0.2 percent in February. The March figure equaled analysts’ forecast ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Producer prices, Consumer Sentiment

First, the economic releases have continued to lower the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP estimate now down to only .6%: My narrative seems to be holding- the drop in oil prices has lowered total spending below ‘stall speed’, after energy related spending chasing $90 oil was what kept it positive for the last ...Read More

Jobless Claims, Durable goods, house prices, cpi

I still don’t see any evidence of a ‘boost’ from lower oil prices. If anything, it’s all gotten a lot softer instead… Jobless Claims Durable Goods Orders Capital Goods Shipments ex Air Y/Y: ...Read More

Greece, Euro inflation

Greece gets to choose its own poison: Greece Delays Awaited Reform Proposals Until Tuesday Feb 23 (WSJ) — Greece’s government pushed back until early Tuesday a list of awaited reforms that its eurozone partners had demanded in exchange for continuing to fund the country for another few months. Greek officials said late ...Read More

mtg prch apps, housing starts, Producer prices, Redbook retail sales

More bad housing news: MBA Purchase Applications Highlights The purchase index is down for a 5th straight week, 7.0 percent lower for the 2nd consecutive week. Rates have been rising in recent weeks including the latest week which is especially depressing refinancing activity where the index fell a very sharp 16.0 percent ...Read More

Turkey’s President has it right!

Maybe they’ll invite me there for Thanksgiving- see where it all started! ;) Erdogan: You Can’t Decide Interest Rates According to Inflation By Ali Berat Meric Feb 4 (Bloomberg) — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says making interest-rate cuts dependent on slowing inflation is the result of a “wrong mentality.” Erdogan, speaking ...Read More

claims, retail sales, prices, inventories

If sales are going to fall off it will be after the layoffs and capital expenditure cuts from the fall in crude prices take place: Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims data are low but still are still trending higher than a month ago in comparisons that do not point to further improvement ...Read More

RT interview

My RT interview starts at the 4 min mark. The cut it into segments that will appear at a later date. ...Read More

Comments on crude pricing, the economy, and the banking system

Crude pricing The Saudis are the ‘supplier of last resort’/swing producer. Every day the world buys all the crude the other producers sell to the highest bidder and then go to the Saudis for the last 9-10 million barrels that are getting consumed. They either pay the Saudis price or shut the ...Read More

Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI

The stock market is happy on the false assumption that bad news means lower rates from the Fed which is good for profits, but that’s another story… Income and spending weak, and prices soft as the Fed continues to fail on at least that part of its mandate: Personal Income and Outlays ...Read More