Inflation Archive

Trade, Durable goods orders, Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed survey, Atlanta Fed nowcast

More signs of a slowdown as exports fall, which means less gdp, and consumer imports down, meaning personal spending was lower than expected, as discussed might be the case previously due to lower personal income growth: Highlights Exports came back sharply in January to feed an oversized $74.4 billion goods deficit in ...Read More

New home sales, Core inflation chart, Trump testimony

Large drop from already historically depressed levels reverses year end spike, and inline with depressed mortgage applications: Highlights Sales of new homes slowed but not all the data in January’s new home sales report are negative. New home sales came in at a much lower-than-expected 593,000 annualized rate in January though, in ...Read More

Unemployment benefits, Debt/GDP, Same store sales

Unemployment benefits are harder to get, as previously discussed: The Next Recession Is Gonna Really Suck As a result, the rate at which unemployed Americans receive layoff compensation overall has fallen from about 36 percent in 2007 to about 28 percent in 2017, according to data from The Department of Labor. Wayne ...Read More

Consumer credit, Mania comment, Fed on rates and inflation

It’s been decelerating all year with a year end move up that’s likely to be reversed as personal income growth continues to be very low: Highlights Consumer borrowing increased in December, up $18.4 billion vs an upwardly revised $31.0 billion in November which is the largest monthly increase since a break in ...Read More

Employment, Factory orders, Bank loans

Note how the year over year growth rate continues it’s 3 year decline, and is in ‘stall speed’ with no sign of reversal. And last I heard a .1 change in the work week hours is equal to about 100,000 jobs, so the .2 drop last month offsets the 200,000 new jobs: ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Construction spending, GDP comments, Comments on tax cuts, Comments on fed policy

Even lower than expected as weakness continues: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 17.1 million annual rate in January By Bill McBride Feb 1, (calculated Risk) — Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 17.1 million SAAR in January. That is down 1.2% from January 2017, ...Read More

Retail sales, $US

Highlights It was a very good holiday shopping season but perhaps not a great one. Retail sales rose a solid 0.4 percent in December which is just shy of Econoday’s consensus though November is revised 1 tenth higher to what is a standout gain of 0.9 percent. Core readings show similar strength ...Read More

Jobless claims, Producer prices, Savings rate chart

Yes, they have been made very hard to get, and now economists are getting concerned that they are moving higher: Highlights In what might be an early sign of loosening in the labor market, initial jobless claims rose 11,000 in the January 6 week to a higher-than-expected 261,000. The gain is widespread ...Read More

Employment, International trade

Weaker than expected, with the prior two months revised downward by a net 9,000 jobs. In any case employment growth continues its multi-year deceleration that began with the collapse of oil capex: Highlights Hiring cooled though employment levels are very high and there’s also a hint of wage inflation in December’s employment ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Personal income and spending, Bank lending, New home sales, Consumer sentiment

As previously discussed, durable goods and manufacturing, after dipping in 2015 with collapse of oil capex, resumed modest growth from the lower levels which continues: Highlights A jump in aircraft skewed durable goods orders 1.3 percent higher in November which however is well below Econoday’s consensus for 2.0 percent and no better ...Read More