Housing Archive

Proposal for mortgage ‘crisis’

As previously proposed a few years back: Fund agencies (fnma/freddy) through the US Fed Financing Bank that funds directly with Treasury at Treasury rates. This lowers costs for the agencies that gets passed through to borrowers and removes liquidity issues for agencies. Shareholders are still at risk of mortgage defaults; so, market ...Read More

New home sales

Weak winter sales, but the absolute number of homes in inventory did go down again and is well off the highs. A modest pickup in the sales rate will now translate into a larger drop in the number of months of inventory. The median price is more a function of which category ...Read More

Updated January 31 month end report

Please excuse the mix of Bloomberg and Valance graphs. Comments welcome. Went blurry eyed trying to organize it all. Markets reacted strongly to Friday’s -17,000 non-farm payroll number. Several sources called it the first negative payroll number in 4 years. How quickly they forget the first negative number was the initial August ...Read More

Home prices and OER

Looks like it will take a very large drop in home prices to slow the ‘pull’ on owner’s equivalent rent (the basis for the CPI housing component). ♥ ...Read More

S&P cuts Alt A mortgages

From Bloomberg: S&P Cuts Alt-A Mortgage Bonds; Analysts Warn on Prime Should already be priced in – been talked about for a long time. Standard & Poor’s reduced its ratings on about $7 billion of Alt-A mortgage securities, citing a sustained surge in delinquencies during the past five months on loans considered ...Read More

2007-12-19 US Economic Releases

Purchase Applications going back 5 years MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 14) Survey n/a Actual -19.5 Prior 2.5 Revised n/a Looks like it’s still turning up, and continues to be up year over year. Note the sharp fall off every December into year end and quick bounce back early Jan. ♥ ...Read More

2007-12-18 US Economic Releases

Housing Starts (Nov) Survey 1176K Actual 1187K Prior 1229K Revised 1232K Building Permits (Nov) Survey 1150K Actual 1152K Prior 1178K Revised 1170K While housing is still down and out, I’m going out on a limb and saying it’s not going to get much worse, and the next meaningful move is up, particularly ...Read More

Bank losses remain less than a year’s earnings

(Reuters article) Big Banks Lower Outlook, Overshadowing Fed Plan Three major U.S. banks said they expect more write-downs and loan losses in the fourth quarter, eroding investor enthusiam over a Federal Reserve plan to ease the global credit crunch. The warnings from the three banks, Bank of America, Wachovia and PNC Financial ...Read More

Re: credit recap

(an interoffice email) > > > > Mkt did not like the Fed move today- IG9 went from 70 out to 78.75 after the > news. CMBS cash (which had a roaring spread tightening in the morning of > about 15bp) gave all but 6bp of it back. There was a rumor ...Read More

Dec 11 balance of risks update

Labor markets remain stronger than expected, right up through this morning’s Manpower survey for next quarter. Inflation risks remain elevated, with estimates of 1.5% PPI and 0.6% CPI the consensus for Thursday and Friday, and CPI core moving higher as well. While several funding spreads have widened vs. fed funds, absolute rates ...Read More