Housing Archive

Business Roundtable, Mtg apps, ADP, Productivity, 1 year charts

More evidence the capital spending contraction is not over: CEO Confidence Goes From Bad to Worse Dec 1 (Fox Business) — CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is dwindling. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index for the 4Q, which looks out six months, fell to the lowest level in three years ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, Dallas Fed

Another bad one, reversing last month’s suspect move up: Chicago PMI Highlights Volatility is what to expect from the Chicago PMI which, at 48.7, is back in contraction in November after surging into strong expansion at 56.2 in October. Up and down and up and down is the pattern with prior readings ...Read More

Mtg prch apps, Durable goods, Personal income and outlays, New home sales, Consumer Sentiment, PMI services

Purchase apps have been flat to down for quite a while now, and the year over year comp will be reflecting that in a few months as well: United States : MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After spiking sharply in the prior when rates jumped and triggered concern they would move even higher, ...Read More

Chicago index, PMI manufacturing index, Existing home sales, Saudi pricing

Still negative. This is just a composite of other indexes that have been released: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights October was a soft month for the economy but solidly improved from September, based on the national activity index which is at minus 0.04 vs September’s revised minus 0.29. October’s improvement is ...Read More

Housing starts, High end weakness

Falling off, as previously discussed, particularly multi family, which had been the driver: Housing Starts Highlights Pulled down by a big drop in multi-family homes, housing starts fell a steep 11.0 percent in October to a 1.060 million annualized rate that is far below Econoday’s low estimate. Starts for multi-family homes, which ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Apps, Saudi Pricing History, China

So much for housing leading the way up- looks to have gone from flat to down: MBA Mortgage Applications For the most part Saudis have been lowering premiums and increasing discounts which causes prices to fall to get their sales up to their pumping capacity: Not without a bit of pain, which ...Read More

Lumber Prices, Small Business Index, Import Export Prices, Redbook Retail Sales, Wholesale Trade

Along with most indicators, this one turned south as oil capex collapsed: Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Sharply Year-over-year Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs. The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand ...Read More

Health Care Expenditures, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

My understanding is that this series includes premiums paid for health insurance and so GDP has gotten a one time boost from from the newly insured who are now paying insurance premiums via the affordable care act. So Q4 should see another reduction and growth and a lower contribution to GDP growth: ...Read More

GDP, Pending Home Sales

A weak number and Q4 not looking so good either. Domestic spending decelerating as incomes fade from reduced capex. Slowing investment, weak exports, and inventory reductions should also continue into Q4 as top line growth continues to fade. And lower prices speak to lower demand. Vehicle sales also looking to slow into ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Oil inventory, Chemical Index, Mtg Purchase Apps

Down to .8: Crude inventory that used to pile up from high cost shale production is coming down as drilling is way down and existing well output declines some 70% in its first two years. Meanwhile, US imports increase as domestic production decreases: Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub fell by ...Read More