Government Spending Archive

claims, producer prices, euro comments, public sector jobs

Just a reminder, claims measure those losing jobs who file for benefits, not new hires: Jobless Claims The euro has been moving higher vs the dollar, as CB selling winds down as they reach the lower limits of their reserve targets along with fundamental support from a large and growing EU current ...Read More

NFIB chart, NY Fed debt chart, April tax collections

Small increase and still down from year end levels, still very low historically, real sales- what matters most- were down: Small Business Optimism Rises, But Future Sales Cloud Outlook The Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.7 points from March to 96.9, this in spite of a quarter of virtually no economic growth. ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Small business confidence, JOLTS, Japan budget

So now they don’t have Easter to kick around anymore and they’re still weak: Redbook Retail sales picked up slightly in the May 9 week as Easter-effects finally fade, but at a year-on-year plus 2.1 percent sales remain soft. Redbook reports an as-expected Mother’s Day holiday in the week and reports early ...Read More

Index/survey review, mtg purch. apps, GDP

MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Up 4 of the prior 5 weeks, the purchase index was unable to add new ground in the April 24 week and was unchanged. The refinance index remains soft, down 4.0 percent. Rates are very low but mostly ticked higher in the week with the average 30-year fixed ...Read More

RT interview

My interview starts at 3:30 ...Read More

from Prof. Terzi

Presentation from Professor Andrea Terzi: The Eurozone crisis: A debt shortage as the final cause ...Read More

labor mkt index, ISM services, tax collections, truck sales, lumber

Presumably this means something to the Fed: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights The Fed’s Board of Governors Research Department’s unofficial report on labor market conditions came in weak for March, dropping to minus 0.3 from plus 2.0 in February. There was no text or detail on the unofficial report but highly likely ...Read More

Balanced budget amendment getting closer, consumer credit, Redbook retail sales, JOLTS

the BIG stupid… Conservative lawmakers weigh bid to call for constitutional convention Consumer Credit Highlights Consumer credit rose a solid looking $15.5 billion in February but a closer look shows an unwanted $3.7 billion decline in revolving credit. This is the 4th decline in 5 months for the revolving component which reflects ...Read More

US macro update, FX update

US macro update: So looks to me like it’s all gone bad since the oil price crash, exactly as feared, and the Atlanta Fed most recently lowered it’s Q1 GDP estimate to 0. First, a quick review of the accounting. GDP = spending = sales = income. An increase in spending = ...Read More

personal income/spending, labor charts and comments, ISM, construction spending, earnings chart

The mainstream assert that the drop in oil prices is an unambiguous positive for the US economy, as it’s like maybe a $200 billion tax cut for consumers. The idea is that the $ saved on oil products get spent elsewhere, increasing real spending. On the negative side they see the fall ...Read More