Government Spending Archive

fiscal drag from california

Update: The California Budget Surplus ...Read More

macro update

Saudis remain price setter: Main theme: deflationary biases Greece is a deflationary event, as EU aggregate demand is further restricted, with no sign of any possibility of fiscal relaxation. Oil fell as Saudis increased discounts, further reducing global capex and related asset prices. US oil production that gets sold counts as GDP, ...Read More

Sanders endorsement, Greece, Passenger transportation services index

A bit of press for my endorsement of Bernie Sanders for President after a chat with Stephanie Kelton which included how they’ve been working together on his economic agenda. Warren Mosler – An International Leader in Modern Monetary Theory Endorses Bernie Sanders Varoufakis completely misses the point. First, the only way public ...Read More

Federal Deficit below last year

The budget deficit is now looking too small to sustain growth, as evidenced by the incoming data over the last 6 months. The problem is, as always, unspent income- aka demand leakages- must be offset by agents spending more than their incomes or the output goes unsold. And collapsing GDP growth and ...Read More

macro update

At the beginning of 2013 the US let the FICA tax reduction and some of the Bush tax cuts expire and then in April the sequesters kicked totally some $250 billion of proactive deficit reduction. This cut 2013 growth from what might have been 4% to just over half that, peaking in ...Read More

claims, producer prices, euro comments, public sector jobs

Just a reminder, claims measure those losing jobs who file for benefits, not new hires: Jobless Claims The euro has been moving higher vs the dollar, as CB selling winds down as they reach the lower limits of their reserve targets along with fundamental support from a large and growing EU current ...Read More

NFIB chart, NY Fed debt chart, April tax collections

Small increase and still down from year end levels, still very low historically, real sales- what matters most- were down: Small Business Optimism Rises, But Future Sales Cloud Outlook The Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.7 points from March to 96.9, this in spite of a quarter of virtually no economic growth. ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Small business confidence, JOLTS, Japan budget

So now they don’t have Easter to kick around anymore and they’re still weak: Redbook Retail sales picked up slightly in the May 9 week as Easter-effects finally fade, but at a year-on-year plus 2.1 percent sales remain soft. Redbook reports an as-expected Mother’s Day holiday in the week and reports early ...Read More

Index/survey review, mtg purch. apps, GDP

MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Up 4 of the prior 5 weeks, the purchase index was unable to add new ground in the April 24 week and was unchanged. The refinance index remains soft, down 4.0 percent. Rates are very low but mostly ticked higher in the week with the average 30-year fixed ...Read More

RT interview

My interview starts at 3:30 ...Read More