Government Spending Archive

from Prof. Terzi

Presentation from Professor Andrea Terzi: The Eurozone crisis: A debt shortage as the final cause ...Read More

labor mkt index, ISM services, tax collections, truck sales, lumber

Presumably this means something to the Fed: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights The Fed’s Board of Governors Research Department’s unofficial report on labor market conditions came in weak for March, dropping to minus 0.3 from plus 2.0 in February. There was no text or detail on the unofficial report but highly likely ...Read More

Balanced budget amendment getting closer, consumer credit, Redbook retail sales, JOLTS

the BIG stupid… Conservative lawmakers weigh bid to call for constitutional convention Consumer Credit Highlights Consumer credit rose a solid looking $15.5 billion in February but a closer look shows an unwanted $3.7 billion decline in revolving credit. This is the 4th decline in 5 months for the revolving component which reflects ...Read More

US macro update, FX update

US macro update: So looks to me like it’s all gone bad since the oil price crash, exactly as feared, and the Atlanta Fed most recently lowered it’s Q1 GDP estimate to 0. First, a quick review of the accounting. GDP = spending = sales = income. An increase in spending = ...Read More

personal income/spending, labor charts and comments, ISM, construction spending, earnings chart

The mainstream assert that the drop in oil prices is an unambiguous positive for the US economy, as it’s like maybe a $200 billion tax cut for consumers. The idea is that the $ saved on oil products get spent elsewhere, increasing real spending. On the negative side they see the fall ...Read More

my comments on comments on the CBO report

STAFF ANALYSIS OF THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE’S BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, 2015–2025 “Political differences shouldn’t prevent us from taking bold, decisive action to address America’s dire financial outlook. Yes, there is an acute shortage of available desired savings as indicated by the slack in the labor market. Republicans and Democrats agree that ...Read More

happy new year!

The above chart is real final demand. Finally back to long term average. A few charts below that show what’s happened to govt under Obama. A capex related charts not looking so good. And the auto industry has a bit of inventory to work off. ...Read More

Credit check, CBO suggestions

Nothing happening on the credit expansion side of consequence that I can detect: Seems the CBO should stick to simple reporting: CBO Presents Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2015 to 2024 from the Congressional Budget Office The Congress faces an array of policy choices as it confronts the prospect of large annual ...Read More

State and local govt charts

The bulk of the boost is coming from state and municipal governments. After tightening their budgets for three years following the end of the recession, they began stepping up spending in 2013 and continued to do so this year Except state taxes are growing faster, a headwind for the private sector. But ...Read More

Employment and related commentary

Seems universally agreed the labor market is ‘improving’ even as the jobs chart has been downward sloping since the peak in April, wage growth has softened from relatively low levels, and the work week fell back some. It’s all screaming ‘lack of aggregate demand’ in no uncertain terms. That is, the deficit ...Read More