Government Spending Archive
Spending and tax bill, Chicago Fed, CRE lending
Fed, Government Spending
Dec 21, 2015
800 billion over 10 years is something, but not enough to turn things around as it’s maybe .25% of GDP per year or so. Historically it’s taken a good 5% of GDP deficit to reverse a decline, which today means close to a 1T deficit annually. And interesting how they just jumped
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Producer Prices, Retail sales, Business inventories, Atlanta Fed, Debt Ceiling Comment
Deficit, GDP, Government Spending
Oct 14, 2015
Gives the Fed another dovish data point: PPI-FD Highlights Producer prices show wide weakness and may raise talk that deflationary pressures are building, not easing. The PPI-FD fell 0.5 percent in September which is just below Econoday’s low estimate for minus 0.4. Year-on-year, producer prices are falling deeper into the negative column
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The Fed’s Sort of Right Move for the Wrong Reasons
Fed, Government Spending, MMT
Sep 21, 2015
The Fed did not raise rates because the FOMC concluded this was not the time to remove accommodation. I agree this is not the time to remove accommodation. But I do not agree lower rates and QE are accommodative. Changing rates shifts income between borrowers and savers, and with the federal debt
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Mtg purchase applications, UK industrial production, Saudi visit, US budget deficit
Deficit, GDP, Government Spending
Sep 09, 2015
Purchase apps came in 41% higher than a year ago, but have been going nowhere for several months and now look to be drifting lower, as in any case they remain at seriously depressed levels: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After jumping 17.0 percent in the prior week on a rate-related surge in
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fiscal drag from california
Defecit, Government Spending
Jul 14, 2015
Update: The California Budget Surplus
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macro update
Currencies, EU, Government Spending, Interest Rates
Jul 10, 2015
Saudis remain price setter: Main theme: deflationary biases Greece is a deflationary event, as EU aggregate demand is further restricted, with no sign of any possibility of fiscal relaxation. Oil fell as Saudis increased discounts, further reducing global capex and related asset prices. US oil production that gets sold counts as GDP,
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Sanders endorsement, Greece, Passenger transportation services index
Government Spending, MMT, Politics
Jun 15, 2015
A bit of press for my endorsement of Bernie Sanders for President after a chat with Stephanie Kelton which included how they’ve been working together on his economic agenda. Warren Mosler – An International Leader in Modern Monetary Theory Endorses Bernie Sanders Varoufakis completely misses the point. First, the only way public
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Federal Deficit below last year
Deficit, GDP, Government Spending
Jun 07, 2015
The budget deficit is now looking too small to sustain growth, as evidenced by the incoming data over the last 6 months. The problem is, as always, unspent income- aka demand leakages- must be offset by agents spending more than their incomes or the output goes unsold. And collapsing GDP growth and
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macro update
Currencies, Deficit, ECB, EU, Exports, Fed, GDP, Government Spending, Greece, Oil
Jun 01, 2015
At the beginning of 2013 the US let the FICA tax reduction and some of the Bush tax cuts expire and then in April the sequesters kicked totally some $250 billion of proactive deficit reduction. This cut 2013 growth from what might have been 4% to just over half that, peaking in
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claims, producer prices, euro comments, public sector jobs
CBs, Currencies, ECB, Employment, EU, Government Spending, Inflation
May 14, 2015
Just a reminder, claims measure those losing jobs who file for benefits, not new hires: Jobless Claims The euro has been moving higher vs the dollar, as CB selling winds down as they reach the lower limits of their reserve targets along with fundamental support from a large and growing EU current
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