GDP Archive

CPI, Redbook Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Index, Containers, FHA Capital, EU Car Registrations, Japan

Part of the Fed’s mandate is to hit it’s 2% inflation target: Still at recession type levels: This is also what recession looks like: The anointed ‘driver of the economy’ continues to falter as previously discussed: Housing Market Index Highlights The housing market index from the nation’s home builders shows weakness, at ...Read More

PPI, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Business Sales and Inventories

More deflation news here: PPI-FD Nothing good here, and of course sales = income, so lower sales = lower incomes. Also, the boost to prior months from car sales looks like it’s fading: Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent, 2 tenths ...Read More

Debt and Recession, Jolts

This shows how private sector credit deceleration is associated with recessions. It’s about the need for those spending more than their incomes to offset those spending less than their incomes. And most often private sector deficit spending decelerates some time after public sector deficit spending decelerates and fails to provide the income ...Read More

Saudi statement, NFIB detail

This means they continue with their discount policy until their entire output capacity is being sold, and then continue to sell their full output capacity at ‘market prices’. That is, they no longer want the high priced producers to benefit from their willingness to to be swing producer and support prices by ...Read More

Saudi Output, Mtg Purchase Apps, NY ISM, ADP, International Trade, PMI services, ISM Non-manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Sales

If the Saudis are looking to pump more seems they have to continue to lower prices: Sure looks like housing still can’t get out of its own way: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage applications are settling down after spiking and dipping sharply in volatility tied to new disclosure rules put in place ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, German Engineering Orders, Misc News, Redbook retail sales, North Dakota, Factory orders

Down to 1.9 for Q4, after being very close for Q1, Q2 and Q3: German Engineering Orders Hit by Lower Demand From China By Nina Adam Nov 2 (WSJ) — Germany’s VDMA engineering federation said Monday that its “plant and machinery makers are battling against global markets’ adversities.” German mechanical engineering orders ...Read More

Health Care Expenditures, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

My understanding is that this series includes premiums paid for health insurance and so GDP has gotten a one time boost from from the newly insured who are now paying insurance premiums via the affordable care act. So Q4 should see another reduction and growth and a lower contribution to GDP growth: ...Read More

Brent Spot Chart, China, Atlanta Fed

Looks a lot more negative since the October 5 Saudi price cuts than the futures markets. These price are more indicative of prices of physical oil vs financial portfolio activities: Note the lack of results of ‘monetary policy’: China’s October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly Nov 1 (Reuters) — Activity ...Read More

Rail traffic, Personal Income, Credit Check

Rail Week Ending 24 October 2015: A Worse Week Among Bad Weeks Week 42 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) and monthly total rail traffic (from same month one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic ...Read More

Personal Income and Outlays, ECI, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, GDP related

Income and spending and pricing low and lower than expected: Personal Income and Outlays Highlights Inflation is not building based on the Fed’s favorite reading, the core PCE price index which inched a lower-than-expected 0.1 percent higher in September with the year-on-year rate steady and flat at only plus 1.3 percent. These ...Read More