GDP Archive

Mtg prch apps, Housing starts, Industrial production, Euro trade

Yes, up vs last year’s dip, but remain depressed and have been heading south since early this year: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Application activity was little changed in the December 11 week, up 1 percent for refinancing and down 3.0 percent for home purchases. Year-on-year, purchase applications remain very high, up 34 ...Read More

Retail sales, Business inventories, Consumer Sentiment

Retail sales = retail (gross) income and growth is still way down year over year, as per the charts. Also declining vehicle sales are highly problematic, as they were what was keeping a bad story from being that much worse. And not to forget when looking at year over year change oil ...Read More

Fed Atlanta, Factory orders comments and charts, NY ISM

So they said capital goods were strong today. But as the chart shows it was just a zig up after a zag down of a volatile series that continues weak overall, especially when compared to the year before: NY/NYC ISM: ...Read More

Factory orders, ISM non mfg, ECB news

Yes, they were up, but there is a ‘seasonal’ aspect to it, including an air show, so the year over year chart is a bit more indicative of what’s going on and it’s still in negative territory. Also, vehicle orders declined, and inventories remained at levels that beg continuing production cuts. Factory ...Read More

Business Roundtable, Mtg apps, ADP, Productivity, 1 year charts

More evidence the capital spending contraction is not over: CEO Confidence Goes From Bad to Worse Dec 1 (Fox Business) — CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is dwindling. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index for the 4Q, which looks out six months, fell to the lowest level in three years ...Read More

Saudi output, Redbook sales, PMI, ISM

While demand for Saudi crude is up a bit, seems it’s still far below their presumed 12 million or so bpd capacity, and their strategy has been to lower their prices to the point where they are selling their full capacity: Nice bounce here, as the year over year comparisons get ‘easier’: ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, Dallas Fed

Another bad one, reversing last month’s suspect move up: Chicago PMI Highlights Volatility is what to expect from the Chicago PMI which, at 48.7, is back in contraction in November after surging into strong expansion at 56.2 in October. Up and down and up and down is the pattern with prior readings ...Read More

Mtg prch apps, Durable goods, Personal income and outlays, New home sales, Consumer Sentiment, PMI services

Purchase apps have been flat to down for quite a while now, and the year over year comp will be reflecting that in a few months as well: United States : MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After spiking sharply in the prior when rates jumped and triggered concern they would move even higher, ...Read More

Discount rate, Profits, GDP commentary

Interesting, with no discount borrowings, the regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents want a discount rate hike? Nine Fed banks called for discount rate hike: minutes Nov 24 (Reuters) — The number of regional Federal Reserve banks pushing for a hike in what commercial banks are charged for emergency loans rose to nine ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Investor poll, Fed surveys

The crowd is not always wrong, but it’s not always right, either: Fund managers polled at the start of November have significantly hiked their allocation to equities and cut cash holdings to levels not seen since July, according to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Of the 200 investors managing $576 ...Read More