GDP Archive

Holiday sales, Atlanta Fed, Freight transport index

Not long ago they blamed cold weather, now it was the warm weather. And this time not a word about the consumer not spending his gas savings… ;) Holiday sales fall short of forecasts: NRF Jan 15 (CNBC) — The National Retail Federation said Friday that holiday sales increased 3 percent to ...Read More

Fed comment, Retail sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial production, Business inventories, Consumer sentiment

Looks like the Fed hiked during a recession. Should make for interesting Congressional testimony… Maybe the hundreds of $ millions they spend on economic research isn’t enough??? ;) Sales remain at recession levels: Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales proved disappointing in December, down 0.1 percent in a headline that is not skewed ...Read More

ECB comment, Retail Sales, Fed Atlanta, Oil comment

Seems there’s no wisdom on the topic of ‘money’ anywhere of consequence: No ‘plan B’ for ECB despite still low inflation: Praet Jan 6 (Reuters) — Executive Board member Peter Praet said various factors, notably low oil prices and less buoyant emerging economies, meant it was taking longer to reach the goal ...Read More

Saudi pricing, Mtg purchase apps, ADP, Trade, Factory orders, ISM non manufacturing

Saudi discounts for February. Some reduced, some increased, so probably more same- prices fall until Saudi output hits its capacity: Zig zagging a lot recently, now back down to where they’ve been for a while: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage application activity fell sharply in the two weeks ended January 1, down ...Read More

Fed Atlanta Q4 GDP forecast is +.7%

Down to only .7% for Q4 GDP forecast. JPM went down to 1% today as well. It’s a bit below the DC Fed’s 3%+ forecasts earlier in the year, when the lower price of oil was presumed to be an unambiguous positive for growth, further supported by the massive monetary stimulus of ...Read More

PMI Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Canada PMI, China Manufacturing PMI

Bad: PMI Manufacturing Index Highlights The manufacturing PMI has been consistently running warmer than other manufacturing surveys which helps put into context the disappointment of December’s slowing to 51.2, down from 52.8 in November. The final reading for December is 1 tenth lower than the mid-month flash. Near stagnation in new orders ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Durable goods orders, New home sales, Personal income and outlays, Chemicals Activity Barometer

Up some this week. Been bouncing around a lot with looming Fed hike, regulation changes, etc. but mtg apps and home sales remain depressed: More bad here: Durable Goods Orders Highlights October was a rare good month for the factory sector, not November where manufacturing production in the industrial production report was ...Read More

Oil prices, Existing home sales chart

This means ‘the swamp has been drained’ and falling production has eliminated the trapped oil in Cushing that caused WTI to be at a discount to Brent. In fact, Brent should trade at a discount to WTI when the shortage is fully eliminated, reflecting transportation costs to the US. This, however, does ...Read More

GDP, existing home sales, Richmond Fed

Not so good since oil capex collapsed about a year ago: GDP Highlights A downward revision to inventories pulled down the third revision to third-quarter GDP, coming in at an annualized and expected rate of 2.0 percent. Revised inventory growth, at $85.5 billion vs an initial $90.2 billion, was the most negative ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, US current account, Philly Fed

Blue chip consensus dropping quickly now, and today won’t help any: Remember a year ago when they said the oil price drop would be an unambiguous positive for the trade balance? ;) Anyway, this is weak dollar stuff, vs the euro area current account surplus, which is strong euro stuff: Current Account ...Read More