GDP Archive

Mtg prch apps, CPI, Housing starts, Industrial production

Working their way a bit higher but still seriously depressed: With the year over year CPI increase now only 1% the Fed can only wait and see if headline will catch up to core and ‘justify’ their tightening bias. Consumer Price Index Highlights The CPI core is showing pressure for a second ...Read More

Retail sales, Redbook retail sales, Housing index, Business inventories and sales, Empire manufacturing, MEW, Atlanta Fed

Just plain bad. Including last month’s downward revision. And, again, sales = income, and lower income means less to spend in the next period: Retail Sales Highlights Consumer spending did not get off to a good start after all in 2016 as big downward revisions to January retail sales badly upstage respectable ...Read More

Wholesale trade

As previously discussed, GDP was only as high as it was due to increases in unsold inventory- not good! Wholesale Trade Highlights Wholesalers had been keeping their inventories down as sales have slowed but they got behind in January. Inventories rose 0.3 percent in the month which isn’t alarming in itself but ...Read More

GDP, Trade, Personal income and outlays, Consumer sentiment, China deficit spending, 7DIF, US surveys, German business morale

Revised up but for the worst reasons possible- unsold inventories were higher. Also, consumption expenditures were a bit lower, and note the deceleration of GDP growth on the chart. And in all likelihood Q1 GDP is now being reduced by inventory liquidation substituting for production: GDP Highlights An upward revision to inventory ...Read More

Architectural Billings, JPM chart, GDP forecasts

Down into contraction: From the AIA: Slight Contraction in Architecture Billings Index Following a generally positive performance in 2015, the Architecture Billings Index has begun this year modestly dipping back into negative terrain. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time ...Read More

Philly Fed, leading indicators, jobless claims

Another bad one, and supports the possibility of another downward revision to industrial production next month: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Highlights The Philly Fed report, much like Tuesday’s Empire State report, is pointing to continuing trouble for the nation’s factory sector. The general business conditions index came in at minus 2.8 ...Read More

Personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing, construction spending

Spending still not good, and GDP *is* spending. Personal income growth remains low, but is higher than spending. I suspect this gets reconciled with downward revisions to income over time, perhaps due to downward revisions to employment. With GDP growth near flat employment growth implies more employees are being hired to produce ...Read More

GDP, Saudi oil production, KC Fed, Chicago PMI, Shale Italy and Japan comments

As expected, the deceleration continues, and over the next couple of years it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire year gets revised down substantially: GDP Highlights Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a ...Read More

Economic Index, Storefronts, Fed statement, Pending home sales, Durable goods orders

Also tracing the weakness back to the oil capex collapse: Econintersect’s Economic Index declined and is barely positive – and still remains at the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy which showed growth were mostly offset by the sectors in contraction. Our economic ...Read More

Recession warnings, Dallas Fed

Reads like we are already in recession… Recession Warnings May Not Come to Pass Jan 24 (WSJ) — Every U.S. recession since World War II has been foretold by sharp declines in industrial production, corporate profits and the stock market. Industrial production has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, and ...Read More