GDP Archive

Cleveland Fed on low wage growth, Atlanta Fed Q2 gdpnow, factory orders

Behind the Slow Pace of Wage Growth Factory Orders Highlights Boosted by aircraft and also by motor vehicles, factory orders rose an as-expected 2.1 percent in March. March’s gain ends what were 7 straight declines as February, which was initially at plus 0.2 percent, is revised now to minus 0.1 percent. The ...Read More

Car sales

Big letdown here. More Q2 downgrades on the way. Still waiting for the burst of consumer spending from the drop in oil prices… United States : Motor Vehicle Sales Highlights The early indications from April have mostly been weak including the first hard consumer data on the month which are vehicle sales. ...Read More

ISM, PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Construction Spending

Slow start for April Manufacturing: ISM Mfg Index Highlights There’s a new unwanted wrinkle in the ISM report and that’s weakness in employment, holding down the headline index to 51.5 in April, unchanged from March. Employment has been holding strong in other reports — but not in the ISM report where the ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Japan and China, rail car traffic, Saudi output

Currently a .9 forecast for Q2, well below other estimates again: More global deceleration: Japan : Household Spending Highlights Household spending declined for a twelfth straight month in March. On the year, spending was down 10.6 percent after sliding 2.9 percent in January. Consumption has been weak since last April when Japan ...Read More

GDP detail, EU unemployment, personal income, ECI, Jobless Claims, chicago pmi, Bloomberg consumer comfort

Note the inventory build: Note the ‘bending of the curve’ for nominal spending that almost never happens: A bit of a disconnect between headline car sales and car sales’ contribution to GDP? Disposable income has ratched down twice recently- once from the recession and jump in unemployment, and again with the tax ...Read More

Index/survey review, mtg purch. apps, GDP

MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Up 4 of the prior 5 weeks, the purchase index was unable to add new ground in the April 24 week and was unchanged. The refinance index remains soft, down 4.0 percent. Rates are very low but mostly ticked higher in the week with the average 30-year fixed ...Read More

durable goods orders, miles driven

All the important indicators still heading south, and Atlanta Fed again reduces it’s GDP forecast Durable Goods Orders Highlights Manufacturing is on a dual track-transportation up and non-transportation soft. Durables orders rebounded 4.0 percent in March after falling 1.4 percent in February. Analysts called for a 0.5 percent increase. Excluding transportation, the ...Read More

RT interview

My interview starts at 3:30 ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Retail Sales, Redbook retail sales, small business optimism index, business inventories

Another string of lower than expected releases And 2nd quarter nowcasts are showing about the same as Q1 no bounce yet. Auto sales have a high import component. Note that reports of domestic wholesale auto output and sales have been lower than expected. And note year over year growth decline, though some ...Read More

GDP, Profits, German exports

Weaker than expected and Q1 forecasts still down, as the mainstream remains in denial that the oil price drop was a large negative for the US economy: GDP Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP forecast: Corporate Profits German exports generally increasing only to the US seems, which cuts into US output and employment as ...Read More