Category Archives: GDP

The week so far

First, thanks to all for contributing to the record $41 million raised this year for Dana Farber by the PMC!!! This all directly funds the discretionary research that makes Dana Farber what they are- the best! If you are looking … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases, GDP, Housing |

Auto sales rate stalling

First construction spending was revised down/less than expected which lowered Q3 GDP forecasts, and then car sales were less than expected as well. Together they are a large factor in consumer ‘borrowing to spend’ which is necessary to offset the … Continue reading

Posted in Credit, GDP |

Potential GDP Revisions and/or Reversals

A couple of things stand out for either revision or reversal next quarter. One is the increase in govt spending and the other the increase in net exports. Together they added about 2% to yesterday’s Q3 GDP release.  So excluding … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Government Spending |

Q3 GDP Up 3.5%

First look, which tends to get revised substantially as more info is released. Consumption looks discouraging, especially longer term, and it appears to be at ‘stall speed': You can see how after tax income keeps ratcheting down: Wages used to … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, GDP |

Talking points for 11am WRKO radio interview

Jobs: Just keeping up with population growth- 59% three months in a row, not at all ‘recovering’ as in prior cycles. So seems the extra jobs are from underestimating population growth? Spending- working its way lower after the tax hikes … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP |

Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, ADP

Came in less than expected and the chart looks bad as well, having topped out prior to year end as tax credits expired: Construction Spending Recent History Of This Indicator Construction spending saw a broad-based gain in July. Construction spending … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Housing |

Q3 GDP estimates hovering around +3%

Current estimates for Q3 GDP are hovering around +3%. So how wrong can they be? Well, the actual range on Bloomberg is from 1.2-4% And here’s the April 30 release for Q1, with estimates ranging from +.5- 2.0. The latest … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

Pending home sales, personal income

Fewer cash buyers and fewer mtg purchase apps also translated into fewer pending home sales: Pending Home Sales Index Highlights The outlook for the used home market remains stubbornly flat, with pending home sales down a disappointing 1.0 percent in … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Housing |

Durable Goods orders

Durable Goods Orders Highlights Durables orders fell back in August, coming off July’s surge in aircraft orders. But the core was healthy in August. New factory orders for durables dropped a monthly 18.2 percent, following a spike of 22.5 percent … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

Housing starts

As previously suggested, with fewer cash sales and mtg purchase apps down 10% vs last year seems doubtful sales do much. With population growth what it is, ‘normal’ for this point in the cycle would be about double what we … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Housing |