Category Archives: GDP

Potential GDP revisions and/or reversals

A couple of things stand out for either revision or reversal next quarter. One is the increase in govt spending and the other the increase in net exports. Together they added about 2% to yesterday’s Q3 GDP release.  So excluding … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Government Spending |

Q3 GDP up 3.5%

First look, which tends to get revised substantially as more info is released. Consumption looks discouraging, especially longer term, and it appears to be at ‘stall speed': You can see how after tax income keeps ratcheting down: Wages used to … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, GDP |

Talking points for 11am WRKO radio interview

Jobs: Just keeping up with population growth- 59% three months in a row, not at all ‘recovering’ as in prior cycles. So seems the extra jobs are from underestimating population growth? Spending- working its way lower after the tax hikes … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP |

Construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, ADP

Came in less than expected and the chart looks bad as well, having topped out prior to year end as tax credits expired: Construction Spending Recent History Of This Indicator Construction spending saw a broad-based gain in July. Construction spending … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Housing |

Q3 GDP estimates hovering around +3%

Current estimates for Q3 GDP are hovering around +3%. So how wrong can they be? Well, the actual range on Bloomberg is from 1.2-4% And here’s the April 30 release for Q1, with estimates ranging from +.5- 2.0. The latest … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

Pending home sales, personal income

Fewer cash buyers and fewer mtg purchase apps also translated into fewer pending home sales: Pending Home Sales Index Highlights The outlook for the used home market remains stubbornly flat, with pending home sales down a disappointing 1.0 percent in … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Housing |

Durable Goods orders

Durable Goods Orders Highlights Durables orders fell back in August, coming off July’s surge in aircraft orders. But the core was healthy in August. New factory orders for durables dropped a monthly 18.2 percent, following a spike of 22.5 percent … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

Housing starts

As previously suggested, with fewer cash sales and mtg purchase apps down 10% vs last year seems doubtful sales do much. With population growth what it is, ‘normal’ for this point in the cycle would be about double what we … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Housing |

Goldman revising Q2 GDP estimate up to 4.7%

This would be a stronger ‘bounce back’ from -2.1 in Q1, but that still leaves the total for the first half of 2014 at only about +1.3%, And over 1.5% of the Q2 gain was from inventory accumulation. Goldman Sachs … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

Construction, gasoline prices, manufacturing, state and local contribution to gdp, restaurant performance index, saudi output, sun spots

Headlines sound a lot better than the charts look. Absolute levels and growth rates continue to fall short of prior cycles: Construction Spending Highlights Construction outlays saw a broad-based gain in July. Construction spending rebounded 1.8 percent after a 0.9 … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, GDP, Government Spending, Housing |