GDP Archive

Chicago Fed, KC Fed, Japan Exports

Note the details and the conclusion: source: Econoday Highlights June proved to be a slightly stronger month for the economy than expected, based on the national activity index which came in at plus 0.08 vs Econoday expectations for a 0.05 dip. The 3-month average is still in the negative column though just ...Read More

Truck Tonnage, MTG Purchase Apps, Gas Prices Not Helping, Existing Home Sales, Architectural Index

Who would’ve thought… Up some but still depressed and not part of GDP in any case: Up a bit but note the details: “The June numbers are likely showing some catch-up from slow growth earlier this year. This is the first month in 2015 that all regions are reporting positive business conditions ...Read More

LA Port Traffic, Greek Banks, Recession Without Financial Crisis

Another weak export report. No mention of the drop in oil prices reduced foreign incomes. LA area Port Traffic: Weakness in June by Bill McBride on 7/20/2015 09:57:00 AM Note: There were some large swings in LA area port traffic earlier this year due to labor issues that were settled on February ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, 2004 vs 2015 US data, EU trade

The Atlanta Fed forecast as of July 14 is was +2.3% annualized for Q2, which is far below initial estimates of most professional forecasters, and below their current forecasts as well, and likely to be lowered further due to recent data. The first government estimate for Q2 GDP will be released on ...Read More

Fed Testimony

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress By Janet Yellen Looking forward, prospects are favorable for further improvement in the U.S. labor market and the economy more broadly. Low oil prices Still seems to leave out the fact that a dollar saved by the buyer of oil is a dollar lost by ...Read More

mtg purch apps, Empire survey, industrial production

Still up from last year this time but seem stalled out at relatively low levels and Q2 not any better than Q1: United States : MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Weekly data are often volatile and it’s hard making much of the last two weeks of purchase applications data which plunged 8.0 percent ...Read More

business inventories and sales

Looks to me like business is likely to be cutting output to reduce inventories: Business Inventories Highlights Business inventories, up 0.3 percent, rose modestly in May in line with sales which rose 0.4 percent. The stocks-to-sales ratio held unchanged at 1.36. Components show no builds for either factory or retail, which is ...Read More

NFIB index, retail sales, Redbook retail sales

When it was going up it made headlines. On the way down not a word… United States : NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Highlights Small business optimism fell very sharply in June, down 4.2 points to 94.1 with 8 of 10 components falling and pointing to weakness for the second half of ...Read More

Fed labor market index, ISM non manufacturing index, Bank lending, Greece

Prior month revised lower and this month lower so Fed that much less likely to raise rates: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Growth in the nation’s labor market remains subdued with the labor market conditions index at plus 0.8 in June vs a revised plus 0.9 in May. The reading is barely ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Chicago PMI, CS house price index, consumer confidence

This measure of retail sales remains surprising depressed, even to me: United States : Redbook Highlights Redbook’s sample continues to report stubbornly low sales rates, at a same-store year-on-year plus 1.7 percent in the June 27 week. Month-over-month, Redbook’s call is a sharp 1.5 percent contraction for June in what is a ...Read More