Category Archives: GDP

macro update

Let’s look at the Saudi price cuts in the context of the accounting identity that states that for everyone who spent less than his income, another must must have spent more than her income or that much output would not … Continue reading

Posted in Comodities, Deficit, GDP |

Housing starts, Japan discussion, China, US pmi, store sales

Looks bad to me. Remember, for GDP to grow at last year’s rate, all the pieces on average have to contribute that much. And, as previously discussed, hard to see how starts and sales can grow with cash buyers and … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, CBs, China, Deficit, GDP, Housing, Japan, Trade |

claims, retail sales, prices, inventories

If sales are going to fall off it will be after the layoffs and capital expenditure cuts from the fall in crude prices take place: Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims data are low but still are still trending higher than … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP, Inflation |

Comments on crude pricing, the economy, and the banking system

Crude pricing The Saudis are the ‘supplier of last resort’/swing producer. Every day the world buys all the crude the other producers sell to the highest bidder and then go to the Saudis for the last 9-10 million barrels that … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, CBs, Comodities, Credit, Currencies, Fed, GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates, Oil |

ADP, mtg purch apps, Productivity, ISM, oil and gas well permits

Remember, this is their forecast for Friday, not hard data from their subscribers: ADP Employment Report Highlights ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth for November is 208,000 vs the Econoday consensus for 225,000 and against a revised 233,000 for October. … Continue reading

Posted in Comodities, Economic Releases, Employment, GDP, Oil |

CEO’s forecast slower growth

This isn’t supposed to be happening… CEOs: Economic growth will be weak in 2015 By Hailee Lee Dec 2 (CNBC) — CEOs from major U.S. companies do not expect strong economic growth in 2015. The Business Roundtable’s fourth-quarter CEO Economic … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

more seriously worrisome releases today

Chicago PMI New Home Sales Pending Home Sales Index Personal Income and Outlays Jobless Claims Durable Goods Orders Highlights The headline number for durables looked good for October but the core number notably disappointed. Durables orders rebounded 0.4 percent in … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases, Employment, GDP |

euro update, q3 gdp update

Seems trade flows and ‘inflation’ continue make the euro fundamentally stronger even as portfolios shifting due to ECB rhetoric keep it under pressure. Should the shifting run its course, I would not be surprised dramatic appreciation. New figures released by … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU, GDP |

The week so far

First, thanks to all for contributing to the record $41 million raised this year for Dana Farber by the PMC!!! This all directly funds the discretionary research that makes Dana Farber what they are- the best! If you are looking … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases, GDP, Housing |

Auto sales rate stalling

First construction spending was revised down/less than expected which lowered Q3 GDP forecasts, and then car sales were less than expected as well. Together they are a large factor in consumer ‘borrowing to spend’ which is necessary to offset the … Continue reading

Posted in Credit, GDP |