GDP Archive

Redbook retail sales, Chicago PMI, CS house price index, consumer confidence

This measure of retail sales remains surprising depressed, even to me: United States : Redbook Highlights Redbook’s sample continues to report stubbornly low sales rates, at a same-store year-on-year plus 1.7 percent in the June 27 week. Month-over-month, Redbook’s call is a sharp 1.5 percent contraction for June in what is a ...Read More

China cuts rates, Atlanta Fed, car sale comment, Greek PM comments

As the carpenter said about his piece of wood, ‘no matter how much I cut off it’s still too short': China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent on Saturday, the fourth reduction since November, as it gears up to lower borrowing costs and support ...Read More

credit check response to comment

Yes, and the rate of growth is lower than the last cycle, and steady to lower, not ‘accelerating’, and in any case note that it jumped up going into the last recession. And commercial paper isn’t growing as was the case in the last cycle, so that element of total credit remains ...Read More

Durables charts, new home sales,FHFA House Price Index, Japan PMI, GDP, Atlanta Fed, Mtg. purch apps, oil comment

Longer term year over year view not looking so good: The cheer leading continues, and sales in the Northeast up 87% looks a bit unsustainable? New Home Sales Highlights The lift off for housing is appearing more and more like it’s straight up. New home sales rose 2.2 percent in May to ...Read More

Existing home sales, Chicago Fed, Greece

Up some but still at depressed levels, and not enough to indicate a general bounce in spending. Personally I sold come small condos in Chicago I’d owned since working there in the early 1980’s. I got tired of fooling with them, net rental income was low, and prices weren’t going anywhere, And ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Italy trade, mtg purchase apps, oil prices

Up some then back down some, still at a very low rate off of a negative Q1: Down a bit but still positive, as is most all of the euro zone now with the euro at current levels: Italy : Merchandise Trade Highlights The seasonally adjusted trade balance was in a E3.5 ...Read More

NY manufacturing, Industrial Production, Housing index, Bundesbank comment

Nothing good here: Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights There’s no bounce at all in the Empire State manufacturing survey where the headline index sank to minus 1.98 in June, well below Econoday’s low-end forecast for 4.00 and the second negative reading in three months that pulls its second quarter average into the ...Read More

Retail sales, business inventories, import/export chart

Sales up to higher gas prices is nothing to brag about: Retail Sales Highlights The consumer showed a lot of life in May, driving up retail sales 1.2 percent with gains sweeping nearly all components. A leading component in the month was motor vehicle sales which jumped 2.0 percent, excluding which retail ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, small business index, QE comment, wholesale trade, jolts

Getting worse instead better in Q2: It’s up which is good, but not even back to q1 January high and below historic ‘good economy’ levels: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Highlights The small business optimism index came in well above expectations, at 98.3 for a very solid 1.4 point gain from April’s ...Read More

Federal Deficit below last year

The budget deficit is now looking too small to sustain growth, as evidenced by the incoming data over the last 6 months. The problem is, as always, unspent income- aka demand leakages- must be offset by agents spending more than their incomes or the output goes unsold. And collapsing GDP growth and ...Read More