GDP Archive

Mtg prch apps, Durable goods, Personal income and outlays, New home sales, Consumer Sentiment, PMI services

Purchase apps have been flat to down for quite a while now, and the year over year comp will be reflecting that in a few months as well: United States : MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After spiking sharply in the prior when rates jumped and triggered concern they would move even higher, ...Read More

Discount rate, Profits, GDP commentary

Interesting, with no discount borrowings, the regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents want a discount rate hike? Nine Fed banks called for discount rate hike: minutes Nov 24 (Reuters) — The number of regional Federal Reserve banks pushing for a hike in what commercial banks are charged for emergency loans rose to nine ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Investor poll, Fed surveys

The crowd is not always wrong, but it’s not always right, either: Fund managers polled at the start of November have significantly hiked their allocation to equities and cut cash holdings to levels not seen since July, according to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Of the 200 investors managing $576 ...Read More

CPI, Redbook Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Index, Containers, FHA Capital, EU Car Registrations, Japan

Part of the Fed’s mandate is to hit it’s 2% inflation target: Still at recession type levels: This is also what recession looks like: The anointed ‘driver of the economy’ continues to falter as previously discussed: Housing Market Index Highlights The housing market index from the nation’s home builders shows weakness, at ...Read More

PPI, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Business Sales and Inventories

More deflation news here: PPI-FD Nothing good here, and of course sales = income, so lower sales = lower incomes. Also, the boost to prior months from car sales looks like it’s fading: Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent, 2 tenths ...Read More

Debt and Recession, Jolts

This shows how private sector credit deceleration is associated with recessions. It’s about the need for those spending more than their incomes to offset those spending less than their incomes. And most often private sector deficit spending decelerates some time after public sector deficit spending decelerates and fails to provide the income ...Read More

Saudi statement, NFIB detail

This means they continue with their discount policy until their entire output capacity is being sold, and then continue to sell their full output capacity at ‘market prices’. That is, they no longer want the high priced producers to benefit from their willingness to to be swing producer and support prices by ...Read More

Saudi Output, Mtg Purchase Apps, NY ISM, ADP, International Trade, PMI services, ISM Non-manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Sales

If the Saudis are looking to pump more seems they have to continue to lower prices: Sure looks like housing still can’t get out of its own way: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage applications are settling down after spiking and dipping sharply in volatility tied to new disclosure rules put in place ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, German Engineering Orders, Misc News, Redbook retail sales, North Dakota, Factory orders

Down to 1.9 for Q4, after being very close for Q1, Q2 and Q3: German Engineering Orders Hit by Lower Demand From China By Nina Adam Nov 2 (WSJ) — Germany’s VDMA engineering federation said Monday that its “plant and machinery makers are battling against global markets’ adversities.” German mechanical engineering orders ...Read More

Health Care Expenditures, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

My understanding is that this series includes premiums paid for health insurance and so GDP has gotten a one time boost from from the newly insured who are now paying insurance premiums via the affordable care act. So Q4 should see another reduction and growth and a lower contribution to GDP growth: ...Read More