GDP Archive

Personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing, construction spending

Spending still not good, and GDP *is* spending. Personal income growth remains low, but is higher than spending. I suspect this gets reconciled with downward revisions to income over time, perhaps due to downward revisions to employment. With GDP growth near flat employment growth implies more employees are being hired to produce ...Read More

GDP, Saudi oil production, KC Fed, Chicago PMI, Shale Italy and Japan comments

As expected, the deceleration continues, and over the next couple of years it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire year gets revised down substantially: GDP Highlights Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a ...Read More

Economic Index, Storefronts, Fed statement, Pending home sales, Durable goods orders

Also tracing the weakness back to the oil capex collapse: Econintersect’s Economic Index declined and is barely positive – and still remains at the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy which showed growth were mostly offset by the sectors in contraction. Our economic ...Read More

Recession warnings, Dallas Fed

Reads like we are already in recession… Recession Warnings May Not Come to Pass Jan 24 (WSJ) — Every U.S. recession since World War II has been foretold by sharp declines in industrial production, corporate profits and the stock market. Industrial production has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, and ...Read More

Holiday sales, Atlanta Fed, Freight transport index

Not long ago they blamed cold weather, now it was the warm weather. And this time not a word about the consumer not spending his gas savings… ;) Holiday sales fall short of forecasts: NRF Jan 15 (CNBC) — The National Retail Federation said Friday that holiday sales increased 3 percent to ...Read More

Fed comment, Retail sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial production, Business inventories, Consumer sentiment

Looks like the Fed hiked during a recession. Should make for interesting Congressional testimony… Maybe the hundreds of $ millions they spend on economic research isn’t enough??? ;) Sales remain at recession levels: Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales proved disappointing in December, down 0.1 percent in a headline that is not skewed ...Read More

ECB comment, Retail Sales, Fed Atlanta, Oil comment

Seems there’s no wisdom on the topic of ‘money’ anywhere of consequence: No ‘plan B’ for ECB despite still low inflation: Praet Jan 6 (Reuters) — Executive Board member Peter Praet said various factors, notably low oil prices and less buoyant emerging economies, meant it was taking longer to reach the goal ...Read More

Saudi pricing, Mtg purchase apps, ADP, Trade, Factory orders, ISM non manufacturing

Saudi discounts for February. Some reduced, some increased, so probably more same- prices fall until Saudi output hits its capacity: Zig zagging a lot recently, now back down to where they’ve been for a while: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage application activity fell sharply in the two weeks ended January 1, down ...Read More

Fed Atlanta Q4 GDP forecast is +.7%

Down to only .7% for Q4 GDP forecast. JPM went down to 1% today as well. It’s a bit below the DC Fed’s 3%+ forecasts earlier in the year, when the lower price of oil was presumed to be an unambiguous positive for growth, further supported by the massive monetary stimulus of ...Read More

PMI Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Canada PMI, China Manufacturing PMI

Bad: PMI Manufacturing Index Highlights The manufacturing PMI has been consistently running warmer than other manufacturing surveys which helps put into context the disappointment of December’s slowing to 51.2, down from 52.8 in November. The final reading for December is 1 tenth lower than the mid-month flash. Near stagnation in new orders ...Read More