Category Archives: GDP

Chicago Fed, Existing home sales

More bad new, and, again consumption down even with lower gas prices: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights The economy has indeed gotten off to a slow start this year, confirmed by the national activity index which came in at … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, GDP, Housing, Oil |

Lockhart on rate hikes

Huh? Has he seen his own Atlanta Fed’s forecast? Might make more sense to say no rate hike unless prospects improve… ;) Fed’s Lockhart sees interest rate ‘liftoff’ by September March 20 (CNBC) — Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, GDP |

QE, the dollar, and the euro, jobless claims, US trade deficit, Philadelphia Fed survey

So my story is that traders and portfolio managers worried about inflation and currency depreciation from QE caused the depreciation during those periods, covering shorts and restoring dollar weightings after QE ended, returning the dollar to where it was. And … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Employment, GDP, Trade |

mtg purchase apps, architect billings index, oil debt comments, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

Still no sign of life here: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Despite low mortgage rates, demand for mortgage purchase applications continues to be weak, down 2.0 percent in the March 13 week for a year-on-year rate of only plus 1.0 percent. … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Fed, GDP, Housing, Oil |

CAI, Housing starts, Redbook retail sales

Remember all the economists pointing to this when this was going up? Now they don’t mention it… Not good, and last winter was even colder: Housing Starts Highlights Housing starts unexpectedly fell sharply in February. Starts fell a monthly 17.0 … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Housing |

Atlanta Fed, Producer prices, Consumer Sentiment

First, the economic releases have continued to lower the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP estimate now down to only .6%: My narrative seems to be holding- the drop in oil prices has lowered total spending below ‘stall speed’, after energy related … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Inflation |

JPM, MS Q1 revision, Fed labor market conditions index, German exports fall, Japan GDP

From JPM: In light of the data we’ve received this week – January reports for real consumer spending, construction spending, and net exports that varied from disappointing to downright weak, as well as a softer February print for car sales … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Germany, Japan, Trade |

Redbook chart, GDP comment

Any sign of a consumer surge here since oil prices fell in December? ;) GDP below ‘stall speed’?

Posted in GDP, Oil |

Wells capping sub prime autos, bank margins and income, personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing, construction spending

Wells pulling back some on sub prime auto loans: Wells Fargo Puts a Ceiling on Subprime Auto Loans And banks in general fighting this: A bit worse than expected. Fewer dollars spent, but more ‘real things’ purchased due to lower … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Credit, Fed, GDP |

Existing home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing, Chicago Fed

Again, with mtg purchase apps down and cash sales down why expect this to go up? And with the oil credit expansion over it could get worse. Existing Home Sales Highlights Despite a strong jobs market and low mortgage rates, … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Housing |