GDP Archive

Gas savings spent

As suspected, the drop in gas prices was pretty much a net 0 for GDP: Consumers are spending a lot more of their gasoline savings than estimated, report says Americans spend majority of money saved at the petrol pump JPMorgan: Consumers Already Spent Most Savings From Cheap Gas Pump Prices > ...Read More

Capex Revision, Gallup Spending Survey, PMI, ISM Non Mfg Index

A gauge of U.S. investment plans slipped more in August than initially estimated, giving a cautionary sign for the economic outlook. New orders for non-military capital goods outside of aviation fell 0.8 percent in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The government had previously reported that this gauge, which is a ...Read More

Saudi Price Cut, Domestic Car Sales, Commercial Paper

This is how they would start a downward price spiral if that’s what they wanted: Saudi Aramco Cuts Crude to Asia, U.S. Amid Weak Demand By Anthony Dipaola Oct 4 (Bloomberg) —Saudi Arabia cut pricing for November oil sales to Asia and the U.S. as the world’s largest crude exporter seeks to ...Read More

Employment, Atlanta Fed, Draghi comments

A shocker for most analysts/entirely in line with my narrative of insufficient deficit spending-public or private-to offset unspent income, aka demand leakages. And it’s only going to get worse until appropriate fiscal adjustments are implemented. The cut in oil capex, which was the only thing supporting growth after the tax hikes and ...Read More

Auto Sales

Just over 18 million which is stronger than expected, with continuing ‘pent up demand’ from the sales collapse that started in 08. Lots of imports and import content, so not going to do much for GDP. Back to levels of 10 years ago, but the population is also about 15% higher. September ...Read More

Challenger Job Cuts, Claims, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Looks like it started trending higher after oil prices collapsed: Nothing happening here yet, I suspect it’s at least partially about restrictions on eligibility, etc. Bad: United States : ISM Mfg Index Highlights The ISM index, like nearly all other September indications, is pointing to trouble for the factory sector. At 50.2, ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Apps, Chicago PMI, ADP, Euro Comment

This is still going nowhere, and, most recently, trending lower, and obviously not responding positively to the ultra low rates of the last several years: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After surging in the prior week following the FOMC’s decision against a rate hike, mortgage activity fell back in the September 25 week. ...Read More

Q2 GDP, Atlanta Fed, Manuf. vs Real GDP chart, Corp Debt, Rail Traffic

Revised up, but same story as previously discussed, with several volatile series moving up and likely to revert at least that much in Q3 when reported late October: GDP Highlights Personal spending was stronger than thought in the second quarter, helping to drive real GDP to a very solid 3.9 percent annualized ...Read More

Durable Goods Orders, Chicago Fed, KC Fed, Philly Fed State Indicator, Claims, New Home Sales

Weak capital goods expenditures and another report indicating weak exports: United States : Durable Goods Orders Highlights Transportation equipment, specifically aircraft orders, are once again skewing durable goods orders which fell 2.0 percent in August as expected. Excluding transportation, durable goods were unchanged which is slightly lower than expected. Weakness here in ...Read More

Japan Downgrade, China GDP Model, Earnings Reports, Italian Trade, Housing Starts, Rail Traffic, Fed Comment

Yields on JGB’s fall a bit with S&P downgrade. I’ve spoken to S&P. They know better. They are intellectually dishonest. I included these as they give some indication of the macro outlook: FedEx Trims Outlook on Weak Freight Demand Sept 16 (WSJ) — FedEx said it expects adjusted earnings of $10.40 to ...Read More