GDP Archive

Comments on transport weakness, Draghi comments, Japan exports to US, new home sales,PMI and Fed indexes chart, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Consumer confidence

Transport Is Saying Consumer Spending Should Slow Further By Steven Hansen When one analyzes the economy, there are always some sections which do better than others. When the economic growth is weak (like currently), several segments can be in contraction while others are expanding. Everything but the needed fiscal relaxation: ECB’s Draghi ...Read More

seasonal adjustments, export reports, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, PMI manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed Survey, Existing home sales, KC Fed

Note that if/when the adjustments are changed it looks like they make Q4 and Q1 a bit higher and Q2 and Q3 a bit lower. The net adjustments are 0 for the year. Nicole Mayerhauser, chief of BEA’s national income and wealth division, which oversees the GDP report, said in the statement ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, LA port traffic, EU trade surplus, German ZEW, housing starts, redbook retail sales

No positive change here yet: This was supposed to rebound: LA area Port Traffic Decreased in April By Bill McBride May 18 (Calculated Risk) — Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic surged in March as the waiting ships were unloaded (the ...Read More

Railcar traffic, Draghi statement, NY manufacturing survey, Industrial production, Consumer confidence

Rail Week Ending 09 May 2015: Data Still Not Pretty. Rail Softness Continues. (Econintersect) — Week 18 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic improved, which accounts for half of movements – ...Read More

Lumber prices, UK pmi, West Coast Port Traffic, trade, PMI and ISM services index

From Calculated Risk: Right now Random Lengths prices are down about 11% from a year ago, and CME futures are down around 25% year-over-year. Stll positive but more recent numbers coming in worse than expected: Great Britain : PMI Construction Highlights Business activity in UK construction slowed unexpectedly quickly last month. At ...Read More

Cleveland Fed on low wage growth, Atlanta Fed Q2 gdpnow, factory orders

Behind the Slow Pace of Wage Growth Factory Orders Highlights Boosted by aircraft and also by motor vehicles, factory orders rose an as-expected 2.1 percent in March. March’s gain ends what were 7 straight declines as February, which was initially at plus 0.2 percent, is revised now to minus 0.1 percent. The ...Read More

Car sales

Big letdown here. More Q2 downgrades on the way. Still waiting for the burst of consumer spending from the drop in oil prices… United States : Motor Vehicle Sales Highlights The early indications from April have mostly been weak including the first hard consumer data on the month which are vehicle sales. ...Read More

ISM, PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Construction Spending

Slow start for April Manufacturing: ISM Mfg Index Highlights There’s a new unwanted wrinkle in the ISM report and that’s weakness in employment, holding down the headline index to 51.5 in April, unchanged from March. Employment has been holding strong in other reports — but not in the ISM report where the ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Japan and China, rail car traffic, Saudi output

Currently a .9 forecast for Q2, well below other estimates again: More global deceleration: Japan : Household Spending Highlights Household spending declined for a twelfth straight month in March. On the year, spending was down 10.6 percent after sliding 2.9 percent in January. Consumption has been weak since last April when Japan ...Read More

GDP detail, EU unemployment, personal income, ECI, Jobless Claims, chicago pmi, Bloomberg consumer comfort

Note the inventory build: Note the ‘bending of the curve’ for nominal spending that almost never happens: A bit of a disconnect between headline car sales and car sales’ contribution to GDP? Disposable income has ratched down twice recently- once from the recession and jump in unemployment, and again with the tax ...Read More