Category Archives: GDP

durable goods, Case Shiller, new home sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, PMI services flash, GDP comments, 10 yr vs Fed

Down hard and revisions down hard as well, and year over year growth up less than 1%: Durable Goods Orders Highlights Durables orders unexpectedly fell 3.4 percent in December after dropping 2.1 percent in November. Analysts projected a 0.7 percent … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Economic Releases, Fed, GDP, Housing, Interest Rates |

retail sales, import and export prices, business inventories, airline stocks, ECB QE comment

This is not supposed to happen with falling gas prices… Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales disappointed for December. Retail sales in December fell 0.9 percent after posting a 0.4 percent gain in November and a 0.3 percent rise in October. … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

Car sales weaker than expected

This is not good. Q4 GDP estimates will be revised lower: Motor Vehicle Sales Highlights Vehicle sales are coming in weaker than expected for December. With the bulk of automakers having already reported, sales of North American made cars and … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

ecri still negative

As previously discussed, this is dismissed because of a prior false recession alarm. At that time the deficit was, in my opinion, high enough to support positive growth. Today’s a different story. The economy always requires deficit spending from some … Continue reading

Posted in GDP, Uncategorized |

Q3 personal income comments

GDP Astounds with 5% Estimate for 3Q 2014 And as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was revised downward by $29 per year. The new number represents an annualized growth rate of 1.25%. Real disposable income is still down … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

Durable Goods orders, Q3 gdp revision

Durables not good, as Q4 deterioration continues: Durable Goods Orders GDP for Q3 revised up to 5%. Lots of volatile bits blipped up above their trend growth at the same time, which tends to reverse the next quarter. Defense was … Continue reading

Posted in GDP |

Surveys suddenly weakening

Philadelphia Fed Survey Highlights Growth is still very strong in the Philly Fed manufacturing region but just not as strong as November’s great surge. The Philly Fed’s general conditions index slowed to 24.5 from 40.8 in November. Outside of November, … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP |

macro update

Let’s look at the Saudi price cuts in the context of the accounting identity that states that for everyone who spent less than his income, another must must have spent more than her income or that much output would not … Continue reading

Posted in Comodities, Deficit, GDP |

Housing starts, Japan discussion, China, US pmi, store sales

Looks bad to me. Remember, for GDP to grow at last year’s rate, all the pieces on average have to contribute that much. And, as previously discussed, hard to see how starts and sales can grow with cash buyers and … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, CBs, China, Deficit, GDP, Housing, Japan, Trade |

claims, retail sales, prices, inventories

If sales are going to fall off it will be after the layoffs and capital expenditure cuts from the fall in crude prices take place: Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims data are low but still are still trending higher than … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP, Inflation |