France Archive

Income, Consumption Chicago PMI, Trade, GDP forecasts, France, Canada, India

Continues to decelerate from the tariffs, and this is before the virus: Also decelerating before the virus: Before the virus, the downtrend is obvious as it remains below 50: Exports and imports both slowing as global trade continues to wind down: GDP forecast to decelerate, before the virus: Unsold inventory piling up: ...Read More

France, Inventory cycle, Unemployment benefits, Architectural billings

Never seen so many charts that look pretty much like this: Much harder to get this cycle means that unemployment and benefits as defined are lower than otherwise, and that the counter cyclical stabilizing effect has been disabled: Most Unemployed People In 2018 Did Not Apply For Unemployment Insurance Benefits from the ...Read More

ECB trade comments, US rates, UK, Germany, France, Japan

Someone else agrees with me about the tariffs and the global trade collapse: CNBC: The trade war is weighing ‘like a big, dark cloud’ on the global economy, says Christine Lagarde. And this would function like a tax increase: Bloomberg: President Trump Doubles Down on Call for Negative Interest Rates. Today’s tariff ...Read More

Small business indicators, China business survey, Car sales, FDI, Euro retail sales

Light vehicle sales peaked a while back: Been helping to support the $US: Eurozone Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly Retail trade in the Euro Area fell 0.3% in May, following a 0.1% drop in April and missing expectations of a 0.3% growth, as sales declined for all main categories. Among the bloc’s largest ...Read More

Euro area PMI, Architecture billings index, Philly Fed, Retail sales, Inventories, Fed report, Equity prices and earnings forecasts

Not looking good: German Factory Activity Continues to Contract in April The IHS Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI rose to 44.5 in April 2019 from the previous month’s near seven-year low of 44.1, but below market expectations of 45, a preliminary estimate showed. Still, the latest reading pointed to a sharp contraction in ...Read More

Housing, Freight, Infrastructure, Trump advice, MMT hysteria, Cooling real estate markets

Tax Reform Exacerbates Sales Cooldown in the U.S. (WSJ) U.S. tax reform has exacerbated a gradual cooldown in U.S. home sales over the past year in certain parts of the country, according to research from realtor.com. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2018, allows homeowners ...Read More

US factory growth, China car sales, Euro Area, Germany, Fisher comment, State revenues, Las Vegas housing

The tariff thing keeps taking its toll: China Nov car sales fall 14%, biggest drop since 2012 (Reuters) China’s automobile sales fell 13.9 percent in November from a year earlier. The drop in sales to 2.55 million vehicles, a fifth straight decline in monthly numbers. The last time sales fell by more ...Read More

Producer prices, Retail sales, Business inventories, Consumer sentiment, Saudi output, German, Euro area GDP

Nothing here to get the Fed concerned about inflation: Not good, less then expected and excluding autos, a ‘core reading’ even worse. Seems to me that perhaps the higher gas prices that caused the increases over the last couple of month’s have taken their toll on other spending. And at the macro ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EU inflation, G20 statement, Virginia jobless claims

As previously suspected, last month’s higher print was just a bit of volatility on the way down, as per the chart: Chicago PMI Highlights Another month and another month of wild volatility for the Chicago PMI which lurched from solid expansion in January to noticeable contraction in February. At a headline 47.6, ...Read More

CPI, Redbook Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Index, Containers, FHA Capital, EU Car Registrations, Japan

Part of the Fed’s mandate is to hit it’s 2% inflation target: Still at recession type levels: This is also what recession looks like: The anointed ‘driver of the economy’ continues to falter as previously discussed: Housing Market Index Highlights The housing market index from the nation’s home builders shows weakness, at ...Read More