Fed Archive

Durable Goods Orders, Chicago Fed, KC Fed, Philly Fed State Indicator, Claims, New Home Sales

Weak capital goods expenditures and another report indicating weak exports: United States : Durable Goods Orders Highlights Transportation equipment, specifically aircraft orders, are once again skewing durable goods orders which fell 2.0 percent in August as expected. Excluding transportation, durable goods were unchanged which is slightly lower than expected. Weakness here in ...Read More

Redbook Retail Sales, Richmond Fed, Architectural Index, Mtg Purchase Index, Chemical Activity Barometer, China, Unemployment Duration Chart

No sign of improvement: Bad: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Highlights Early indications on the September factory sector are negative and now include a minus 5 headline from the Richmond Fed. New orders, unfortunately, are even more deeply in the negative column at minus 12 which points to even weaker activity in the ...Read More

School and Unemployment, Spain Conference Link

How Have Prime-Age Workers in School Affected the Labor Market? Just one of several possible factors keeping the participation rate down and the reported unemployment rate lower than otherwise, which in my narrative are the consequences of low aggregate demand/the federal deficit is too small, etc. From the St. Louis Fed: In ...Read More

The Fed’s Sort of Right Move for the Wrong Reasons

The Fed did not raise rates because the FOMC concluded this was not the time to remove accommodation. I agree this is not the time to remove accommodation. But I do not agree lower rates and QE are accommodative. Changing rates shifts income between borrowers and savers, and with the federal debt ...Read More

Household Debt, NYC Restaurant Index

The growth rate had been increasing some but now may have leveled off at historically low levels, even with a near 0 rate policy from the Fed: Why Has Household Debt Declined? O rates and massive QE hasn’t led to increased credit expansion in Japan either: ...Read More

Japan Downgrade, China GDP Model, Earnings Reports, Italian Trade, Housing Starts, Rail Traffic, Fed Comment

Yields on JGB’s fall a bit with S&P downgrade. I’ve spoken to S&P. They know better. They are intellectually dishonest. I included these as they give some indication of the macro outlook: FedEx Trims Outlook on Weak Freight Demand Sept 16 (WSJ) — FedEx said it expects adjusted earnings of $10.40 to ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Apps, CPI, Home Builder’s Index, Euro Area Balance of Trade, CEO Outlook

Looking like it’s turned south: MBA Mortgage Applications Fed continues to fail to sustain enough aggregate demand to meet it’s 2% inflation target: Consumer Price Index Highlights Consumer prices came in soft in August and will not be turning up the heat on the doves at the FOMC. Pressured by gasoline, the ...Read More

Spain, QE chart, Wholesale trade, UK and France industrial production, Import and export prices

Fyi, we will be in Spain next week. Here are some of the details: There is a newly formed MMT Group in Spain called APEEP which stands for “Asociación para el Pleno Empleo y la Estabilidad de Precios”. In an effort to bring MMT into the political debate in Spain, they will ...Read More

Fed comments and charts, Employment from outside the labor force, Public sector employment, Small Business Index, Labor market conditions index

The reason the Fed is talking hike is because they believe the continued modest growth is reducing the excess capacity in the economy, and they are concerned about hitting the wall of full employment with their 0 rate policy and multi $ trillion portfolio, both of which they believe to be highly ...Read More

quick macro update

It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been ...Read More