Fed Archive

US Trade

This is just for ‘goods’ but seems to be counter to all other releases reporting weak exports, but it has been zig zagging it’s way lower and August was particularly weak. And note the weakness in car imports: International trade in goods Highlights September reversed August’s outsized goods trade gap, coming in ...Read More

Confidence, Richmond, PMI Services

A lot less than expected based on jobs assessment, and note the drop in car buying plans: United States : Consumer Confidence Highlights A decline in the assessment of the current jobs market pulled down the consumer confidence index to a lower-than-expected 97.6 in October. This is about 2.4 points below Econoday’s ...Read More

Existing Home Sales, Chicago Fed, Leading Indicators, KC Fed

Higher than expected, not directly a contributor to GDP or a measure of output. The change in fed mtg regs that caused the blip and mtgs and subsequent reversal needs to play out here as well: Existing Home Sales Highlights Existing home sales bounced back very strongly in September, up 4.7 percent ...Read More

Exports, News Headlines, Atlanta Fed, German Comment

They say its the strong $ that’s hurting exports. I say it’s the drop in oil related capex after the price collapse: This is what news headlines have been looking like (not good): From RĂ¼diger (top German Specialist) research: German new business orders for August were broadly lower. Compared to July, which ...Read More

Capex Revision, Gallup Spending Survey, PMI, ISM Non Mfg Index

A gauge of U.S. investment plans slipped more in August than initially estimated, giving a cautionary sign for the economic outlook. New orders for non-military capital goods outside of aviation fell 0.8 percent in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The government had previously reported that this gauge, which is a ...Read More

Durable Goods Orders, Chicago Fed, KC Fed, Philly Fed State Indicator, Claims, New Home Sales

Weak capital goods expenditures and another report indicating weak exports: United States : Durable Goods Orders Highlights Transportation equipment, specifically aircraft orders, are once again skewing durable goods orders which fell 2.0 percent in August as expected. Excluding transportation, durable goods were unchanged which is slightly lower than expected. Weakness here in ...Read More

Redbook Retail Sales, Richmond Fed, Architectural Index, Mtg Purchase Index, Chemical Activity Barometer, China, Unemployment Duration Chart

No sign of improvement: Bad: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Highlights Early indications on the September factory sector are negative and now include a minus 5 headline from the Richmond Fed. New orders, unfortunately, are even more deeply in the negative column at minus 12 which points to even weaker activity in the ...Read More

School and Unemployment, Spain Conference Link

How Have Prime-Age Workers in School Affected the Labor Market? Just one of several possible factors keeping the participation rate down and the reported unemployment rate lower than otherwise, which in my narrative are the consequences of low aggregate demand/the federal deficit is too small, etc. From the St. Louis Fed: In ...Read More

The Fed’s Sort of Right Move for the Wrong Reasons

The Fed did not raise rates because the FOMC concluded this was not the time to remove accommodation. I agree this is not the time to remove accommodation. But I do not agree lower rates and QE are accommodative. Changing rates shifts income between borrowers and savers, and with the federal debt ...Read More

Household Debt, NYC Restaurant Index

The growth rate had been increasing some but now may have leveled off at historically low levels, even with a near 0 rate policy from the Fed: Why Has Household Debt Declined? O rates and massive QE hasn’t led to increased credit expansion in Japan either: ...Read More