Fed Archive

Rate hike comment, Container traffic, Employment comment

So a Fed rate hike is nothing more than the federal government deciding to pay more interest on what’s called ‘the public debt’. By immediately paying more interest on balances in reserve accounts at the Fed the cost of funds to the banking system is supported at that higher level, all of ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, US current account, Philly Fed

Blue chip consensus dropping quickly now, and today won’t help any: Remember a year ago when they said the oil price drop would be an unambiguous positive for the trade balance? ;) Anyway, this is weak dollar stuff, vs the euro area current account surplus, which is strong euro stuff: Current Account ...Read More

Mtg prch apps, Housing starts, Industrial production, Euro trade

Yes, up vs last year’s dip, but remain depressed and have been heading south since early this year: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Application activity was little changed in the December 11 week, up 1 percent for refinancing and down 3.0 percent for home purchases. Year-on-year, purchase applications remain very high, up 34 ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, China, S&P, bank loans

Up a notch on stats I expect will reverse in Dec, and note the street forecasts coming down: Many think the Fed is focusing on this to presume a strong underlying economy. However it’s been supported by the jump in health care premiums due to the additional people paying for insurance, a ...Read More

Labor market conditions index, Euro and yen charts, Fed discussion

This is the Fed’s own index and it’s on the very weak side: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Friday’s employment report, led by a 211,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, was solid but didn’t give the labor market conditions index much of a boost, coming in at only plus 0.5 vs expectations for ...Read More

Business Roundtable, Mtg apps, ADP, Productivity, 1 year charts

More evidence the capital spending contraction is not over: CEO Confidence Goes From Bad to Worse Dec 1 (Fox Business) — CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is dwindling. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index for the 4Q, which looks out six months, fell to the lowest level in three years ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, Dallas Fed

Another bad one, reversing last month’s suspect move up: Chicago PMI Highlights Volatility is what to expect from the Chicago PMI which, at 48.7, is back in contraction in November after surging into strong expansion at 56.2 in October. Up and down and up and down is the pattern with prior readings ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Investor poll, Fed surveys

The crowd is not always wrong, but it’s not always right, either: Fund managers polled at the start of November have significantly hiked their allocation to equities and cut cash holdings to levels not seen since July, according to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Of the 200 investors managing $576 ...Read More

Consumer Credit, Credit Check, Rail Traffic, Employment Charts

Consumer Credit Highlights In a record report, consumer credit data are strongly confirming the strength of the consumer. Credit outstanding surged $28.9 billion in September for the largest gain in the history of the series which goes back to 1941. Nonrevolving credit, in part reflecting vehicle financing and also student loans, rose ...Read More

Job Cuts, Yellen Comment, Saudi Pricing, German Factory Orders, Maersk Job Cuts, China Trade Show

Down a bit but still trending higher since the oil price collapse: Seems she still doesn’t realize negative rates are just another tax: FED’S YELLEN: IF ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED, NEGATIVE RATES AND OTHER TOOLS WOULD BE ON THE TABLE This implies the rest of Saudi pricing remains the same from November, when ...Read More