Fed Archive

Chicago Fed, existing home sales

Still negative: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights December was a weak month for the U.S. economy but a little less weak than November, based on the national activity index which improved to minus 0.22 from minus 0.36 (revised lower from minus 0.30). The improvement is centered in the production component as ...Read More

Fed comment, Retail sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial production, Business inventories, Consumer sentiment

Looks like the Fed hiked during a recession. Should make for interesting Congressional testimony… Maybe the hundreds of $ millions they spend on economic research isn’t enough??? ;) Sales remain at recession levels: Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales proved disappointing in December, down 0.1 percent in a headline that is not skewed ...Read More

ECB, Fed, Rail traffic

Looks like they are again making hawkish noises, taking the lead of the Fed: ECB wary of further action despite uncertain future By: Balazs Koranyi and John O’Donnell Jan 14 (Reuters) * Many governors sceptical of need for further action in near term * Governors urge countries to act instead with reform ...Read More

Spending and tax bill, Chicago Fed, CRE lending

800 billion over 10 years is something, but not enough to turn things around as it’s maybe .25% of GDP per year or so. Historically it’s taken a good 5% of GDP deficit to reverse a decline, which today means close to a 1T deficit annually. And interesting how they just jumped ...Read More

PMI services index, KC Fed

Much lower than expected from the service that tends to run much higher than the others. Fed rate hike already working! ;) PMI Services Flash Highlights The services PMI is slowing sharply this month, to 53.7 vs 56.1 for the final November reading and vs 56.5 for the flash reading. This is ...Read More

Rate hike comment, Container traffic, Employment comment

So a Fed rate hike is nothing more than the federal government deciding to pay more interest on what’s called ‘the public debt’. By immediately paying more interest on balances in reserve accounts at the Fed the cost of funds to the banking system is supported at that higher level, all of ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, US current account, Philly Fed

Blue chip consensus dropping quickly now, and today won’t help any: Remember a year ago when they said the oil price drop would be an unambiguous positive for the trade balance? ;) Anyway, this is weak dollar stuff, vs the euro area current account surplus, which is strong euro stuff: Current Account ...Read More

Mtg prch apps, Housing starts, Industrial production, Euro trade

Yes, up vs last year’s dip, but remain depressed and have been heading south since early this year: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Application activity was little changed in the December 11 week, up 1 percent for refinancing and down 3.0 percent for home purchases. Year-on-year, purchase applications remain very high, up 34 ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, China, S&P, bank loans

Up a notch on stats I expect will reverse in Dec, and note the street forecasts coming down: Many think the Fed is focusing on this to presume a strong underlying economy. However it’s been supported by the jump in health care premiums due to the additional people paying for insurance, a ...Read More

Labor market conditions index, Euro and yen charts, Fed discussion

This is the Fed’s own index and it’s on the very weak side: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Friday’s employment report, led by a 211,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, was solid but didn’t give the labor market conditions index much of a boost, coming in at only plus 0.5 vs expectations for ...Read More