EU Archive

China trade, Greece comment

More reason to suspect US exports will disappoint and US imports will exceed expectations: ...Read More

macro update

Saudis remain price setter: Main theme: deflationary biases Greece is a deflationary event, as EU aggregate demand is further restricted, with no sign of any possibility of fiscal relaxation. Oil fell as Saudis increased discounts, further reducing global capex and related asset prices. US oil production that gets sold counts as GDP, ...Read More

Greece drops in the news standings

9th story down, as Greece falls out of the news cycle: ...Read More

Fed labor market index, ISM non manufacturing index, Bank lending, Greece

Prior month revised lower and this month lower so Fed that much less likely to raise rates: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Growth in the nation’s labor market remains subdued with the labor market conditions index at plus 0.8 in June vs a revised plus 0.9 in May. The reading is barely ...Read More

Greece loses the gambit

It now looks to me like Greece has lost the wrestling match. The other EU members are very sensitive to market reactions. The question was whether the EU economy needed Greece, and the answer is now looking more and more like ‘no’. Not a good position for Greece to find itself after ...Read More


Not much to say that hasn’t already been said. I saw nothing good coming out of a yes or no vote and I still see it that way. And watch for the follow up polls on the demographics of the vote- who voted, what they say they knew about what they voted ...Read More

Housing Starts, Redbook retail sales, EU merchandise trade, Russia comment, California real estate licensees

The good news here is that last month was up more than expected, and permits were up as well. Lots of cheer leading on this one, and the upward revision of last month’s report ups Q2 GDP estimates a tad, but a quick look at the charts tells me that so far ...Read More

EU Industrial Production, Credit Check, Atlanta Fed

Even with increasing net exports, over all GDP isn’t benefiting all that much, as fiscal policy and structural reforms that assist exports do so by restricting incomes and domestic demand to achieve ‘competitiveness’. Additionally, negative rates and QE remove some interest income from the economy, which also restricts domestic demand to some ...Read More

Saudi output, Greek statement, EU pmi

Saudi output up a bit. As they post prices and let their refiners buy all they want at those prices, this shows demand is up a bit, likely because of a supply disruption elsewhere, like Libya, for example: As suggested all along: In an interview with Realnews newspaper published on Saturday, Economy ...Read More

macro update

At the beginning of 2013 the US let the FICA tax reduction and some of the Bush tax cuts expire and then in April the sequesters kicked totally some $250 billion of proactive deficit reduction. This cut 2013 growth from what might have been 4% to just over half that, peaking in ...Read More