EU Archive

Mtg purchase apps, Gas prices, Greek debt, Euro area trade and inflation, Oil prices

Another setback for those grasping for straws looking for housing to lead a recovery: MBA Mortgage Applications Gas prices up enough to hurt consumers, but not enough boost oil capex. You might say it’s in the ‘sour spot’: Again, for all practical purposes this IS full debt forgiveness, and something Greece has ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EU inflation, G20 statement, Virginia jobless claims

As previously suspected, last month’s higher print was just a bit of volatility on the way down, as per the chart: Chicago PMI Highlights Another month and another month of wild volatility for the Chicago PMI which lurched from solid expansion in January to noticeable contraction in February. At a headline 47.6, ...Read More

Apartment market tightness, Euro area trade surplus, Spain

This just keeps going up, which fundamentally tends to drive up the euro which tends to continue to be subject to said upward pressure until the trade picture reverses: Euro Area Balance of Trade The Eurozone trade surplus increased to €23.6 billion in November of 2015 compared to a €20.2 billion surplus ...Read More

Euro Trade Surplus, Euro Inflation

Trade surplus still trending higher along with deflation both make the euro ‘harder to get’ and ‘more valuable’: European Union : Merchandise Trade Highlights The seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance returned a E19.8 billion surplus in August after an unrevised E22.4 billion excess in July. This was the least black ink since ...Read More

Exports, News Headlines, Atlanta Fed, German Comment

They say its the strong $ that’s hurting exports. I say it’s the drop in oil related capex after the price collapse: This is what news headlines have been looking like (not good): From Rüdiger (top German Specialist) research: German new business orders for August were broadly lower. Compared to July, which ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Apps, Chicago PMI, ADP, Euro Comment

This is still going nowhere, and, most recently, trending lower, and obviously not responding positively to the ultra low rates of the last several years: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After surging in the prior week following the FOMC’s decision against a rate hike, mortgage activity fell back in the September 25 week. ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Apps, CPI, Home Builder’s Index, Euro Area Balance of Trade, CEO Outlook

Looking like it’s turned south: MBA Mortgage Applications Fed continues to fail to sustain enough aggregate demand to meet it’s 2% inflation target: Consumer Price Index Highlights Consumer prices came in soft in August and will not be turning up the heat on the doves at the FOMC. Pressured by gasoline, the ...Read More

Spain, QE chart, Wholesale trade, UK and France industrial production, Import and export prices

Fyi, we will be in Spain next week. Here are some of the details: There is a newly formed MMT Group in Spain called APEEP which stands for “Asociación para el Pleno Empleo y la Estabilidad de Precios”. In an effort to bring MMT into the political debate in Spain, they will ...Read More

France PMI, Germany PMI, EU PMI, EU Retail Sales, UK service PMI, US Trade, ISM Non Manufacturing, Saudi Pricing

France : PMI Composite Highlights French private sector activity in August expanded at a significantly slower pace than indicated in the flash report according to the final PMI data for the month. At just 50.2, a 7-month low, the key composite output index was revised down an unusually large 1.1 points versus ...Read More

quick macro update

It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been ...Read More