EU Archive

Euro Area CA, Macro Chart Update

Still positive but lower and less than expected: A few charts not looking so good: Housing doing a bit better but remains well below levels associated with prior recessions and remains a much smaller % of GDP: Beware spikes in permits! ...Read More

LA Port Traffic, Greek Banks, Recession Without Financial Crisis

Another weak export report. No mention of the drop in oil prices reduced foreign incomes. LA area Port Traffic: Weakness in June by Bill McBride on 7/20/2015 09:57:00 AM Note: There were some large swings in LA area port traffic earlier this year due to labor issues that were settled on February ...Read More

WRKO The Voice of Boston Radio Interview

Click here to listen to my interview on WRKO The Voice of Boston on July 17th ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, 2004 vs 2015 US data, EU trade

The Atlanta Fed forecast as of July 14 is was +2.3% annualized for Q2, which is far below initial estimates of most professional forecasters, and below their current forecasts as well, and likely to be lowered further due to recent data. The first government estimate for Q2 GDP will be released on ...Read More

Nice Mentions in Bloomberg

Nine People Who Saw the Greek Crisis Coming Years Before Everyone Else Did By Julie Verhage and Alex Balogh (Bloomberg) Saw it all coming in 1995 and held a conference on it in 1996 in Bretton Woods. ;) ...Read More

China trade, Greece comment

More reason to suspect US exports will disappoint and US imports will exceed expectations: ...Read More

macro update

Saudis remain price setter: Main theme: deflationary biases Greece is a deflationary event, as EU aggregate demand is further restricted, with no sign of any possibility of fiscal relaxation. Oil fell as Saudis increased discounts, further reducing global capex and related asset prices. US oil production that gets sold counts as GDP, ...Read More

Greece drops in the news standings

9th story down, as Greece falls out of the news cycle: ...Read More

Fed labor market index, ISM non manufacturing index, Bank lending, Greece

Prior month revised lower and this month lower so Fed that much less likely to raise rates: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Growth in the nation’s labor market remains subdued with the labor market conditions index at plus 0.8 in June vs a revised plus 0.9 in May. The reading is barely ...Read More

Greece loses the gambit

It now looks to me like Greece has lost the wrestling match. The other EU members are very sensitive to market reactions. The question was whether the EU economy needed Greece, and the answer is now looking more and more like ‘no’. Not a good position for Greece to find itself after ...Read More