EU Archive

Housing Starts, Redbook retail sales, EU merchandise trade, Russia comment, California real estate licensees

The good news here is that last month was up more than expected, and permits were up as well. Lots of cheer leading on this one, and the upward revision of last month’s report ups Q2 GDP estimates a tad, but a quick look at the charts tells me that so far ...Read More

EU Industrial Production, Credit Check, Atlanta Fed

Even with increasing net exports, over all GDP isn’t benefiting all that much, as fiscal policy and structural reforms that assist exports do so by restricting incomes and domestic demand to achieve ‘competitiveness’. Additionally, negative rates and QE remove some interest income from the economy, which also restricts domestic demand to some ...Read More

Saudi output, Greek statement, EU pmi

Saudi output up a bit. As they post prices and let their refiners buy all they want at those prices, this shows demand is up a bit, likely because of a supply disruption elsewhere, like Libya, for example: As suggested all along: In an interview with Realnews newspaper published on Saturday, Economy ...Read More

macro update

At the beginning of 2013 the US let the FICA tax reduction and some of the Bush tax cuts expire and then in April the sequesters kicked totally some $250 billion of proactive deficit reduction. This cut 2013 growth from what might have been 4% to just over half that, peaking in ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, LA port traffic, EU trade surplus, German ZEW, housing starts, redbook retail sales

No positive change here yet: This was supposed to rebound: LA area Port Traffic Decreased in April By Bill McBride May 18 (Calculated Risk) — Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic surged in March as the waiting ships were unloaded (the ...Read More

claims, producer prices, euro comments, public sector jobs

Just a reminder, claims measure those losing jobs who file for benefits, not new hires: Jobless Claims The euro has been moving higher vs the dollar, as CB selling winds down as they reach the lower limits of their reserve targets along with fundamental support from a large and growing EU current ...Read More

GDP detail, EU unemployment, personal income, ECI, Jobless Claims, chicago pmi, Bloomberg consumer comfort

Note the inventory build: Note the ‘bending of the curve’ for nominal spending that almost never happens: A bit of a disconnect between headline car sales and car sales’ contribution to GDP? Disposable income has ratched down twice recently- once from the recession and jump in unemployment, and again with the tax ...Read More

euro update

So today, for example, US tsy secs were up in yield yet the dollar went down vs the euro instead of up as it had been doing when US rates went up. So perhaps the CB’s who were selling euro have backed off? Maybe their exporters notices their euro reserves were falling ...Read More

PMI’s, Housing sales data, Yellon on oil

A few more PMI’s showing weakness: Japan : PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Highlights Manufacturing weakened for a third consecutive month. The flash April manufacturing PMI reading was 49.7, down from 50.3 in March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The output index also slipped below 50 to a reading of 49.7, down ...Read More

Buy signal?

Mr. Draghi said at the time that “there is no going back to the lira or the drachma or to any other currency. It is pointless to bet against the euro. It is pointless to go short on the euro.” ...Read More