Category Archives: EU

Comments on DB research

I send my posts to both a mailing list and to my blog,, where they are posted for public viewing. To get on the mailing list you must make a donation to the annual Pan Mass Challenge bicycle ride, … Continue reading

Posted in EU, Trade |

Greece, Euro inflation

Greece gets to choose its own poison: Greece Delays Awaited Reform Proposals Until Tuesday Feb 23 (WSJ) — Greece’s government pushed back until early Tuesday a list of awaited reforms that its eurozone partners had demanded in exchange for continuing … Continue reading

Posted in EU, Inflation |

RT interview, UK inflation, retail sales mystery, Greece, Italian trade surplus

Greece must threaten Grexit to get best outcome from Troika Edward talks to Warren Mosler, chairman of Consulier Engineering on why the EU’s approach to the Greek debt crisis has failed to lift the Greek … So for decades the … Continue reading

Posted in CBs, EU |

EU trade surplus

This is seriously strong euro stuff: European Union : Merchandise Trade Highlights The seasonally adjusted trade balance was in a record E23.3 billion surplus in December, up from a stronger revised E21.6 billion print in November. Unadjusted the black ink … Continue reading

Posted in EU, Trade |

flow news in 2014 is bad for the Euro

So I still see all the fundamentals/trade flows favoring the euro vs the $US, with the EU running a trade surplus and the US a deficit, and low oil prices ‘helping’ the EU trade balance while ‘hurting’ the US’s. But … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU |

Comments on Greece

A couple of ‘fundamentals’ A default/restructure/debt reduction of any form removes euro financial assets and is a contractionary/deflationary bias that makes euro ‘harder to get’ and thereby firms the currency. Also, Greece has been running a budget deficit, which adds … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, ECB, EU |

euro update, q3 gdp update

Seems trade flows and ‘inflation’ continue make the euro fundamentally stronger even as portfolios shifting due to ECB rhetoric keep it under pressure. Should the shifting run its course, I would not be surprised dramatic appreciation. New figures released by … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU, GDP |

Italy Surrenders

Reads like Renzi sold out to Brussels and the Italian exporters: Italy Revises Budget to Avoid Clash With Brussels  (WSJ) Italy backed away from a clash with the European Commission over its 2015 budget on Monday by agreeing to use a €3.3 billion … Continue reading

Posted in EU |

Euro vs $US

The euro is up vs the $US today in spite of near universal positioning for it to fall, including technical indicators pointing to further declines. I see lots of positives for the euro and one negative. Positives: 1.  $US went … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU |

today’s observations

Not much sign of any move towards higher deficits today. Just talk of more bank liquidity, which doesn’t matter, and more to weaken the euro, which doesn’t work either. Hard to say why the euro has been going down, but … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Currencies, EU |