EU Archive

quick macro update

It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been ...Read More

euro area trade, housing comments, consumer prices

Continues very strong. This is for member using the euro: Size of New Homes in U.S. Shrinks by One Closet By Kris Hudson Aug 18 (WSJ) — Of the 206,000 homes that went under construction in the second quarter, the median size was 2,479 square feet. That was 40 square feet smaller—or ...Read More

Empire manufacturing, housing market index, EU merchandise trade

The lack of support from the lost oil capex continues to ripple out: United States : Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights Out of the blue, the Empire State index has plunged deeply into negative column this month, to minus 14.92 in August vs plus 3.86 in July. This is by far the ...Read More

MTG Purchase Apps, EU Industrial Production, China Industrial Production, JOLTS

Yes, purchase apps are up 20% vs last year, but you can see from the chart the number of applications has leveled off and declined a bit more recently this year, and remains at depressed levels: The slump in industrial production is global: European Union : Industrial Production Highlights Industrial production declined ...Read More

China, Germany, Productivity, NFIB Index, Redbook, Wholesale Trade

A few thoughts: China’s US Tsy holding had been falling perhaps because they were selling $ to buy Yuan to keep it within in the prior band. Pretty much all exporting nation’s currencies have already weakened vs the $, including the Yen and Euro, so this is a bit of a ‘catch ...Read More

Mortgage Purchase Apps, EU Retail Sales, Payroll Tax, ADP, Trade, Equity Comment

While still historically very low, purchase apps are now way up over last year’s particularly depressed levels. Some are replacing all cash buyers, but the increase is also in line with increased existing home sales. While new home sales were soft, turnover of existing homes has been increasing, and while not directly ...Read More

Euro Area CA, Macro Chart Update

Still positive but lower and less than expected: A few charts not looking so good: Housing doing a bit better but remains well below levels associated with prior recessions and remains a much smaller % of GDP: Beware spikes in permits! ...Read More

LA Port Traffic, Greek Banks, Recession Without Financial Crisis

Another weak export report. No mention of the drop in oil prices reduced foreign incomes. LA area Port Traffic: Weakness in June by Bill McBride on 7/20/2015 09:57:00 AM Note: There were some large swings in LA area port traffic earlier this year due to labor issues that were settled on February ...Read More

WRKO The Voice of Boston Radio Interview

Click here to listen to my interview on WRKO The Voice of Boston on July 17th ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, 2004 vs 2015 US data, EU trade

The Atlanta Fed forecast as of July 14 is was +2.3% annualized for Q2, which is far below initial estimates of most professional forecasters, and below their current forecasts as well, and likely to be lowered further due to recent data. The first government estimate for Q2 GDP will be released on ...Read More