Category Archives: EU

flow news in 2014 is bad for the Euro

So I still see all the fundamentals/trade flows favoring the euro vs the $US, with the EU running a trade surplus and the US a deficit, and low oil prices ‘helping’ the EU trade balance while ‘hurting’ the US’s. But … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU |

Comments on Greece

A couple of ‘fundamentals’ A default/restructure/debt reduction of any form removes euro financial assets and is a contractionary/deflationary bias that makes euro ‘harder to get’ and thereby firms the currency. Also, Greece has been running a budget deficit, which adds … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, ECB, EU |

euro update, q3 gdp update

Seems trade flows and ‘inflation’ continue make the euro fundamentally stronger even as portfolios shifting due to ECB rhetoric keep it under pressure. Should the shifting run its course, I would not be surprised dramatic appreciation. New figures released by … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU, GDP |

Italy Surrenders

Reads like Renzi sold out to Brussels and the Italian exporters: Italy Revises Budget to Avoid Clash With Brussels  (WSJ) Italy backed away from a clash with the European Commission over its 2015 budget on Monday by agreeing to use a €3.3 billion … Continue reading

Posted in EU |

Euro vs $US

The euro is up vs the $US today in spite of near universal positioning for it to fall, including technical indicators pointing to further declines. I see lots of positives for the euro and one negative. Positives: 1.  $US went … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU |

today’s observations

Not much sign of any move towards higher deficits today. Just talk of more bank liquidity, which doesn’t matter, and more to weaken the euro, which doesn’t work either. Hard to say why the euro has been going down, but … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Currencies, EU |

Time to say goodbye? Schauble Calls on Italy to Pursue Structural Reform

Schäuble Calls on Italy to Pursue Structural Reform By Andrea Thomas July 16 (WSJ) — German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble called on Italy to pursue its ambitious structural reform efforts if it wants to boost its economic-growth prospects. “Especially since … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU, MMT, Proposal |

concern over euro strength

As previously discussed, the ‘missing piece’ from the standard export model is buying the currency of your target market, as Germany used to do, and as the EU can’t do for ideological reasons- they don’t want to give the appearance … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU |

A few comments on overnight news

The threshold may be high but there is one somewhere up there: Fed should be ‘very patient’ in cutting stimulus: Rosengren (Reuters) The high number of part-time workers who would rather work full-time, the still-high unemployment rate, and very low … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Economic Releases, Emerging Markets, Employment, EU, Housing |

The newly appointed Italian “Ministry of the Economy” had said…

truly insulting! The euro zone is at risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by abandoning efforts to cut budget deficits and fix long-standing economic problems. The growing perception that austerity has been futile is incorrect. Fiscal consolidation … Continue reading

Posted in EU, Government Spending |