Equities Archive

Obama speech- not your father’s Democrats

There is a quick fix, a full payroll tax holiday for employees and employers. His small business proposals show he and the rest of Congress still don’t understand that employment is a function of sales. There is nothing in their proposals to support consumption, which is the only point of any economy. ...Read More

New Home Sales…

Looks to me like maybe the payback has run its course. I’d look for a rebound through the orange line I drew. The only problem is there aren’t a lot of actual houses for sale. So a pick up in housing starts can’t be far off either as they are very low ...Read More

markets looking grim

>    >   (email exchange) >    >   On Tue, Aug 24, 2010 at 8:32 AM, Seth wrote: >    >   stocks look bad >   looks like another panic >    It doesn’t look good technically. Must be coming out of europe with gold up/euro down dynamic, etc. Insiders there must be bailing. Maybe they know something we don’t, or ...Read More

Caterpillar CEO says no double-dip recession

Caterpillar CEO says no double-dip recession August 19 (AP) — Global equipment sales increased 32 percent. And engine and turbine sales were up 5 percent overall. “There seems to be a doom and gloom out there in the punditry,”CEO Doug Oberhelman said. “We’re not seeing that.” Caterpillar said equipment sales in the ...Read More

High-Freq Data/Fed/Call Centers

Karim writes: ABC survey improved by 2pts this week, and 5pts over past 2 weeks; Still in range of past 2yrs. MBA refi index up 17.1% this week New Purchase index down a tad but remains reasonably flat after correcting when the home buying credit expired. Yesterday, Minny Fed President Kocherlakota talked ...Read More

Lowe’s misses, but sales and earnings rise

Negative headline for a slight miss, and 3.8% top line growth and double digit earnings growth year over year. And that is in Q2 where GDP growth was probably only 1% or so, and still looking a bit higher for Q3, supported by ongoing 8%+ federal budget deficits. Not a good economy ...Read More

Valance Chart Review

Link: Valance Chart Review (PDF) ...Read More


Karim writes: Not a game changer in my view and doesn’t compel the Fed to change course next week. Private sector gradually churning out jobs; hours, wages, and diffusion index ok. Private payrolls up 71k after avg of 41k of prior 2mths but well off highs of 200k avg of Feb and ...Read More


I tend to agree with Karim and Fed Chairman Bernanke. Modestly improving GDP growth with unemployment coming down very gradually until a consumer credit expansion takes hold. Good for stocks, not so good for most of the people still struggling to survive, as the Obama administration continues to preside over what might ...Read More


Yes, I think we have a nice L shaped economy with modest GDP growth and modestly improving employment, so far mostly evidenced by the increased hours worked that you’ve been pointing out. Acceleration happens when/if some aspect of private sector credit growth takes off. If euro solvency risks are indeed fading, it ...Read More