Employment Archive

Continuing Claims->UE Rate->FF Rate

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: The chart attached shows the last 3 cycles in continuing claims, the unemployment rate and the FF rate. Continuing claims is a coincident to leading indicator of the unemployment rate. Its interesting that in the last two cycles, continuing claims made what appears to be a ...Read More


[Skip to the end] With productivity up more than expected Q2 GDP can be flat with hours declining. Karim writes: Rate of decline definitely slowing overall and across a number of industries But to put the ‘blowout’ number (according to CNBC) in perspective: The -345k drop in employment was only exceeded 6 ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Initial claims down 4k to 621k Continuing claims down 15k, first drop in 2009 Some possibility of Memorial Day week distorting data Both measures consistent with ongoing job losses and rising unemployment rate, but a slower pace than in recent months Have no bearing on tomorrow’s numbers as ...Read More

2008-06-23 Valance Weekly Economic Graph Packet

[Skip to the end] Real GDP Can you find the recession? Year over year will be reasonable until last year’s large Q3 number drops out without similar sized q3 this year.     Capacity Utilization, ISM Manufacturing Down but not out as GDP muddles through.     Philly Fed Index, Chicago PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing, ...Read More

Another look at Kohn’s June 11th speech

[Skip to the end] This still reads hawkish to me: The results of such exercises imply that, over recent history, a sharp jump in oil prices appears to have had only modest effects on the future rate of inflation. This result likely reflects two factors. First, commodities like oil represent only a ...Read More

BOJ and inflation

[Skip to the end] Bank of Japan keeps distance from Fed, ECB hawks by Leika Kihara (Reuters) Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa distanced himself on Friday from the hawkish tone of U.S. and European central bankers, and signalled slowing economic growth was still a key factor in deciding interest rates. After ...Read More

Watch for full employment to be redefined

[Skip to the end] It’s about that time of the cycle for ‘learned’ academic papers to start popping up claiming the NAIRU, the ‘non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ (or something like that) is in actual fact more like 7% rather than the currently believed 5%. And expect these findings to show ...Read More