Obama Trickle down policies would make Reagan blush


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Looking for more of the same with the preponderance of ‘top down’ initiatives.

Wall street banks dividing up tens of billions in bonuses, as fees and net interest margins remain wide, helped by income lost by ‘savers’ due to fed rate cuts, while unit labor costs plunge with productivity high and wages stagnating.

Negative headline CPI means no social security increase, unemployment near 10% and jobs still being lost, foreclosures running at record levels, and mortgage delinquencies continuing to climb.

And now with real GDP growing at maybe 3% and lower income groups still going backwards, a larger chunk of the output has to be going to the top.

Wealthy U.S. Shoppers Boost Spending 29%

By Cotten Timberlake

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) — Spending in the U.S. on luxury goods and services spurted 29 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, as consumers with the highest incomes unleashed pent-up demand, according to Unity Marketing.

Spending among 1,067 consumers with average annual income of $228,800 rose to $18,826 each in the three months ended in September from $14,554 a quarter earlier, the Stevens, Pennsylvania-based luxury-market research firm said today. Shoppers cut spending by 3.2 percent in the second quarter and spent $13,429 in the third quarter of 2008.

The increase was driven by consumers with the highest income levels, starting at $250,000 a year, said Pam Danziger, Unity’s Marketing’s president. Spending was strongest in the home, travel and dining segments, she said. The wealthy curbed purchasing earlier this year because of Wall Street job cuts, lower home values and volatile financial markets.

“No question that this quarter’s spending increase is good news for luxury marketers,” Danziger said in a telephone interview today. “Many affluent consumers returned after sitting on the sidelines for a year. However, the richest are few in number, 2.5 million households, so competition will be fierce to win their attention.”

MasterCard Report

U.S. luxury sales rose 3.4 percent to $891 million in September from a year earlier, the first such gain since August 2008, according to figures provided today by credit-card company MasterCard in its SpendingPulse report. Last month, those sales fell 13 percent from the previous year.

The luxury category covers apparel, leather goods and department-store sales at the highest 10 percent of prices. SpendingPulse measures retail sales across all payment forms, including cash and checks.

United Marketing said purchases increased in all but three of the 22 product and service categories it tracks.

The highest-income group spent an average of $43,111 in the latest quarter and the lowest-income group tracked, with earnings of $100,000 to $149,999, spent $10,423. The three categories that didn’t gain were fashion accessories, fashion apparel and art, Danziger said.

Gains in confidence among luxury consumers, meanwhile, slowed, Unity Marketing said.

The researcher’s luxury confidence index rose 1.6 points to 75.9, after jumping 18.6 points to 74.3 in the previous quarter. That index peaked at 113.2 at the end of March 2006. Its low was 40.3 in September 2008. It started at 100 in January 2004.

The findings were based on a survey conducted among adults aged 24 to 70 with income of at least $100,000 from Oct. 2 to Oct. 7. Unity Marketing does not calculate a margin of error. It plans to publish the survey results Oct. 19.


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EU warns UK that its debt is unsustainable


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EU warns UK’s debt is ‘unsustainable’

By Sean O’Grady

Oct. 15 (The Independent) —A damning report by the European Commission on the long-term prospects for Britain’s public finances warns that Britain is at “high risk” of running unsustainable debts – implying that the nation will be unable to service its debts and that only default or high inflation can relieve the burden.

That implies the high deficits will close the output gap to 0 with ultra low unemployment and high cap utilization.

And then taxes will have to go up to cool it down.

Sounds like a good plan to me!

The Commission’s 2009 Sustainability Report says that Britain will suffer a
“sustainability gap” of 12.4 per cent of GDP – meaning tax rises or spending
cuts amounting to close to £200bn a year.


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Fed’s Bullard comments


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Suggesting the ‘natural rate of unemployment’ is near current levels.

As you know I’ve been watching for the mainstream to start moving towards this position
as we continue to gravitate to a very ugly ‘export economy’ model.

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Mon, Oct 12, 2009 at 5:47 AM, Dave wrote:
>   

US – St Louis Fed President Bullard Bullard argued that there may not be as much slack in the US economy as many forecasters believe, in a presentation last night to the National Association of Business Economics meeting.


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Ritzholtz Blog


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Mosler: PAYROLL TAX HOLIDAY

Warren Mosler, economist, perturbed by the misunderstanding of monetary policy by the current and past administrations, is running for President in 2012. He has been speaking at the Tea Parties, explaining to taxpayers that Washington is either at best ignorant of economic policy or at worst deceptive.

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Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has indicated that the economy is improving and the recession is ending. The media informs us that the stock market has added $2 trillion to national wealth since the market lows in March 2009. However, the stock market is still more than $2 trillion from its previous high in 2008 and real estate values are down $6 trillion and still declining. Not only has nominal wealth evaporated, but incomes are also treading heavy water. The Government informs us that unemployment is up to 9.8% with the only ‘good news’ being that the rate of job loss has declined. In July, there were only 2.6 million jobs available for 14.5 unemployed.

Also many are working part time when they want full time jobs. Americans are taking lower paying jobs and incomes are on the decline, especially when adjusted for the massive bonuses paid to bank employees and CEOs. The Department of Labor reported that young Americans (16 to 24 years old) have the highest unemployment rate ever (25.5%, although the New York Post has it at 53.4%). Regardless, America has a large and growing under utilization of labor among all age demographics.

At the same time, state tax collections have been declining and budgetary constraints (balanced budget requirements) are placing enormous pressures on state finances, especially California. In response, states and local municipalities are cutting jobs (teachers, policeman etc.), services, university, and infrastructure funding. Additionally, the states and municipalities are increasing taxes to gain the additional revenues.

The Administration and Congress are informing the public that everything is beginning to look good because of the trillions of dollars that they provided to repair the banks. The problem is that they have it backwards; the economy is best fixed from the bottom up rather than the top down.

In June 2008, Warren Mosler proposed three ‘bottom up’ policies to fix the economy. The first proposal is for a full Payroll Tax Holiday for both employees and employers. This stops the government from taking approximately $20 billion a week from people working for a living (a total of $600 per month for someone making $50,000 per year) rather than using that $20 billion to keep some bank limping along. The Government would still continue to credit the social security and the Medicare accounts, so employees and employers will never have to pay back the monies they received. The Payroll Tax Holiday would restore income to American workers (and businesses) to help make their loan payments, rents, pay bills, and sustain their households. The real economy would benefit as Americans both reduce debt and resume consumption. Banks will benefit because there will be fewer delinquencies and foreclosures in non fraudulent mortgages, which will also help limit home price declines. The Payroll Tax Holiday would also reduce corporate cost structures and help contain prices and inflation. The payroll tax is regressive (it is not graduated based on income like the income tax), so the Payroll Tax Holiday will benefit those in the lower income levels the most. This “People Power” solution will be far more effective than the Bush and Obama trickle down solution. And the Government can decide to end the Payroll Tax Holiday should the economy become too strong and inflation become a concern.

The second part of the proposal would to assist the states by providing them with $150 billion in revenue sharing on a per capita basis with no strings attached. This will help the states to fund operations, keep workers employed, provide necessary services and fund infrastructure projects.

The third part of the proposal would be to fund an $8/hr National Service job for anyone willing and able to work that includes full federal health care coverage. This, like the Payroll Tax Holiday, addresses unemployment from the ‘bottom up’ rather than the ‘top down’. A determination can be made as to what the jobs will be, but the goal is to improve America by providing useful output. It will also provide for a far superior price anchor, as it has been well documented that private employers more readily hire those already working over anyone who is unemployed. In 2001, Argentina introduced its Jefes de Jugar version of the Mosler Plan that employed nearly 2 million people that had never worked in the private sector, and within two years 750,000 moved up to private sector jobs.

If any of these proposals strikes a personal chord regarding how we can rebuild our economy, please forward them to your elected representatives in Washington. These are not proposals for out of control, top down, trickle down, Government spending on corporate welfare that insults the majority of Americans working for a living, but fundamental, proven, bottom up solutions that reward that vast majority of Americans that work for a living and struggling to make ends meet.


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Obama Weighs Spending to Stem Job Cuts Without Second Stimulus


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This does not do much for ‘jobs’ but it is pretty good for financial markets.

Low wages, high productivity growth and a bit of top line growth makes for happy management and investors. And a continuing flow of real wealth from the bottom to the top.


Obama Weighs Spending to Stem Job Cuts Without Second Stimulus

By Mike Dorning and Nicholas Johnston

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama is considering a mix of spending programs and tax cuts to respond to widening job losses that would amount to an additional economic stimulus without carrying that label.

Contradictory Missions

In considering the measures, the administration has to reconcile two potentially contradictory missions: combating rising unemployment through government intervention and the need to hold deficits down.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs yesterday highlighted those political sensitivities, saying there “were no plans” for a second stimulus like the $787 billion package passed earlier this year. Instead, he said, the administration is looking at “extensions” of existing programs.

The Obama administration isn’t near a final decision on additional measures, said Jen Psaki, a White House spokeswoman.

“As they continue to explore the best options, any notion that we are any farther along than preliminary discussions about new proposals is wildly inaccurate,” she said.


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Payrolls


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Karim writes:
Reaction possible dampened by the recent rally, but this is a really bad number, especially as it relates to consumer income and spending.

But really weak across many metrics and shows a worsening, not just less bad.

  • NFP -263k w/net revisions -13k
  • UE rate up from 9.657% to 9.832%
  • HOURS -0.5%
  • Diffusion Index 34.9 to 31.9
  • AHE +0.1%
  • Total Unemployment (Discouraged workers, would rather be full-time,etc) up from 16.8% to 17%
  • Main weakness was retail (-30k net change), Education (-43k net change) and State and Local Govt (-30k net change)

Labor Income is HoursXJobsXHourly Earnings. Looks like will be down about 0.5% for the month and will drive y/y personal income even more negative.

Tough to see inflation with that background!


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PCE/Claims


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Yes, not looking good!


Karim writes:

Attached is the Fed’s favored inflation measure, the core PCE deflator.

Putting aside that 1% is the lower end of their defacto ‘comfort zone’, the speed of the move is as much a concern as the level.

  • M/M Core PCE was 0.09%
  • Personal income and wage and salary income were both 0.2% m/m, but are down -2.6% and -5.2% y/y respectively.
  • Initial claims up 17k to 551k (prior week revised +4k).
  • Total Ongoing Claims (continuing+extended+emergency) +35k


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Conference Board/C-S


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Karim writes:

Conference Board survey weaker than expected

  • Falls back from 54.5 to 53.1 with both current conditions and future expex declining
  • Labor differential (Jobs plentiful less Jobs hard to get) falls from -40 to -43.6, near lows for year
  • Cash for clunkers runs its course as plans to buy an auto in next 6mths falls from 5.3 to 4.4, lowest since March
  • Plans to buy a home in next 6mths falls from 3.0 to 2.3

Case-Shiller rises 1.6% in July, 3rd monthly advance in a row.

  • Of note is the 3mth period through July 2008 were the best 3mths for home prices last year, so seasonals may be suspect
  • Also, foreclosures about to ramp up again, creating additional supply-link below has some good data/charts

Link


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Data Review


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Karim writes:

‘Mixed’

Claims

  • Initial down 12k to 545k
  • Continuing + Emergency + Extended up 161k

Housing

  • Starts up 0.2% in August with single family down 3%, first drop in this sector since Feb
  • Permits up 2.7% with single family down 0.2%, first drop in this sector since March

Philly Fed

  • Headline improves 10pts to 14.1, but details on the weak side (headline not a weighted avg of components)
  • Prices Paid less Prices Received, new orders, and number of employees all worsen. Improvement most notable in current shipments.


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