Employment Archive

Saudi pricing, Mtg purchase apps, ADP, Trade, Factory orders, ISM non manufacturing

Saudi discounts for February. Some reduced, some increased, so probably more same- prices fall until Saudi output hits its capacity: Zig zagging a lot recently, now back down to where they’ve been for a while: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage application activity fell sharply in the two weeks ended January 1, down ...Read More

Rate hike comment, Container traffic, Employment comment

So a Fed rate hike is nothing more than the federal government deciding to pay more interest on what’s called ‘the public debt’. By immediately paying more interest on balances in reserve accounts at the Fed the cost of funds to the banking system is supported at that higher level, all of ...Read More

CPI, Empire survey, Redbook retail sales, Housing index

One of the Fed’s mandates. The ‘headline’ number is below target due to the energy impulse, but the ‘core’ rate, led by services, is on target. The question is whether energy prices, if they remain at current levels, will ‘pull down’ other prices. And the comparisons with last year are now vs ...Read More

Rail traffic, Credit check, Employment flows, State and local taxes and expenditures

Rail Week Ending 28 November 2015: Contraction Growing Faster. Rail Traffic in November Down 10.4%. Week 47 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic contracted year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of ...Read More

Payrolls, Trade

The growth rate continues to decelerate (see chart): NFP Highlights Payroll growth is solid and, though wages aren’t building steam, today’s employment report fully cements expectations for December liftoff. Nonfarm payrolls rose a very solid 211,000 in November which is safely above expectations for 190,000. And there’s 35,000 in upward revisions to ...Read More

Debt and Recession, Jolts

This shows how private sector credit deceleration is associated with recessions. It’s about the need for those spending more than their incomes to offset those spending less than their incomes. And most often private sector deficit spending decelerates some time after public sector deficit spending decelerates and fails to provide the income ...Read More

Employment chart, China trade, SNB

The red line tends to drag down the blue line, often when deficit spending gets too low: Exports drop again, imports drop more, so the trade surplus grows, and the US should see more imports and fewer exports, while euro zone imports are down which adds to their trade surplus: China’s Trade ...Read More

Payrolls

Much higher than expected, so unless next month’s number settles back down the Fed will be expected to hike rates some. Note from the chart that the last few November releases showed similar spikes followed by much lower prints: Employment Situation Highlights Bring on that rate hike! Nonfarm payrolls surged 271,000 in ...Read More

Job Cuts, Yellen Comment, Saudi Pricing, German Factory Orders, Maersk Job Cuts, China Trade Show

Down a bit but still trending higher since the oil price collapse: Seems she still doesn’t realize negative rates are just another tax: FED’S YELLEN: IF ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED, NEGATIVE RATES AND OTHER TOOLS WOULD BE ON THE TABLE This implies the rest of Saudi pricing remains the same from November, when ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, German Engineering Orders, Misc News, Redbook retail sales, North Dakota, Factory orders

Down to 1.9 for Q4, after being very close for Q1, Q2 and Q3: German Engineering Orders Hit by Lower Demand From China By Nina Adam Nov 2 (WSJ) — Germany’s VDMA engineering federation said Monday that its “plant and machinery makers are battling against global markets’ adversities.” German mechanical engineering orders ...Read More