Employment Archive

Mtg purchase apps, Car sales comments, ADP, ISM services, Exxon capex, BOJ comment

Up last week now back down as this sector remains in prolonged depression: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights The purchase index has been posting outsized gains this year but not in the January 29 week, falling 7.0 percent. The refinance index, however, did post a gain in the week, up 0.3 percent. Low ...Read More

Consumer Credit, Jobs comments

This is going nowhere: Consumer Credit Highlights Revolving credit showed substantial life in November, up $5.7 billion and helping to boost total consumer credit by $14.0 billion. Nonrevolving credit, boosted by auto financing and student loans, has been the foundation of strength for this series during the whole recovery, but less so ...Read More

Jobs, Wholesale trade, China, Rail traffic

Anyone notice that the annual growth rate of employment continues the deterioration that began with the collapse in oil capex? Or that, once again, it looks like most all the new jobs were taken by people previously considered out of the labor force? And the anemic wage growth also contributes to the ...Read More

Saudi pricing, Mtg purchase apps, ADP, Trade, Factory orders, ISM non manufacturing

Saudi discounts for February. Some reduced, some increased, so probably more same- prices fall until Saudi output hits its capacity: Zig zagging a lot recently, now back down to where they’ve been for a while: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Mortgage application activity fell sharply in the two weeks ended January 1, down ...Read More

Rate hike comment, Container traffic, Employment comment

So a Fed rate hike is nothing more than the federal government deciding to pay more interest on what’s called ‘the public debt’. By immediately paying more interest on balances in reserve accounts at the Fed the cost of funds to the banking system is supported at that higher level, all of ...Read More

CPI, Empire survey, Redbook retail sales, Housing index

One of the Fed’s mandates. The ‘headline’ number is below target due to the energy impulse, but the ‘core’ rate, led by services, is on target. The question is whether energy prices, if they remain at current levels, will ‘pull down’ other prices. And the comparisons with last year are now vs ...Read More

Rail traffic, Credit check, Employment flows, State and local taxes and expenditures

Rail Week Ending 28 November 2015: Contraction Growing Faster. Rail Traffic in November Down 10.4%. Week 47 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic contracted year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of ...Read More

Payrolls, Trade

The growth rate continues to decelerate (see chart): NFP Highlights Payroll growth is solid and, though wages aren’t building steam, today’s employment report fully cements expectations for December liftoff. Nonfarm payrolls rose a very solid 211,000 in November which is safely above expectations for 190,000. And there’s 35,000 in upward revisions to ...Read More

Debt and Recession, Jolts

This shows how private sector credit deceleration is associated with recessions. It’s about the need for those spending more than their incomes to offset those spending less than their incomes. And most often private sector deficit spending decelerates some time after public sector deficit spending decelerates and fails to provide the income ...Read More

Employment chart, China trade, SNB

The red line tends to drag down the blue line, often when deficit spending gets too low: Exports drop again, imports drop more, so the trade surplus grows, and the US should see more imports and fewer exports, while euro zone imports are down which adds to their trade surplus: China’s Trade ...Read More