Emerging Markets Archive
Personal income and consumption
Emerging Markets
Nov 02, 2020
Personal income, which includes gov transfer payments, is coming down in steps after spiking for the fiscal adjustments, and still remains a bit higher than it would have been as transfer payments wind down: Transfer payments are coming down, but remain elevated largely due to unemployment: Excluding transfer payments it’s still well
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Philly Fed index, Fear and greed stats, Oil capex
Emerging Markets
Dec 28, 2019
The edge of recession? Fear and Greed Index Still contracting:
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Retail sales, Consumer Sentiment, Rails, Sea containers, Wholesale sales, Employment, Hours worked
Emerging Markets
Sep 13, 2019
Up a bit but still looking a lot lower than a few months ago: “Deep in contraction” Analyst Opinion of Container Movements Simply looking at this month versus last month – there were only marginal changes to weak numbers. The year-over-year rate of growth improved for imports and marginally worsened for exports.
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Leveraged loans, Current account and repatriation, Cass freight index
Emerging Markets
Dec 20, 2018
So for every agent that spent less than its income, another must have spent more than its income, or the output would not have been sold. It’s an ex poste identity for any currency. That means that as bank lending decelerated, assuming ‘savings desires’ are generally constant, either some other means of
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A few comments on overnight news
Currencies, Economic Releases, Emerging Markets, Employment, EU, Housing
Feb 27, 2014
The threshold may be high but there is one somewhere up there: Fed should be ‘very patient’ in cutting stimulus: Rosengren (Reuters) The high number of part-time workers who would rather work full-time, the still-high unemployment rate, and very low inflation suggest significant “slack” in labor markets and “call for a very
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India Fiscal Position Weak as Elections Approach, Moody’s Says
Emerging Markets, India
Feb 18, 2014
With official unemployment around 9%? Unfortunately they listen to this nonsense and you can see the results :( India Fiscal Position Weak as Polls Approach, Moody’s Says
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The unconscious liberal
Deficit, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fed, Government Spending
Feb 03, 2014
Macroeconomic Populism Returns By Paul Krugman February 1 (NYT) — Matthew Yglesias says what needs to be said about Argentina: theres no contradiction at all between saying that Argentina was right to follow heterodox policies in 2002, but it is wrong to be rejecting advice to curb deficits and control inflation now.
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Growing Pains
Credit, Emerging Markets, Employment, Fed, Housing
Jan 29, 2014
FLASH- Fed to taper another $10 billion Maybe they are concerned about all the interest income they are removing from the economy? ;) General comments: For GDP to grow at 3% all the pieces have to ‘average’ 3% growth And if anything is growing at a slower pace than last year, something
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Deficit maths redux- Faulty logic in 2014 GDP forecasts?
Deficit, Emerging Markets, GDP, Government Spending, Proposal, Trade
Dec 08, 2013
Pretty much all forecasters expect improvement in 2014 largely from what they call a reduction in fiscal drag. Their logic goes something like this (with the actual numbers varying a bit with different analysts): Without the deficit reduction in 2013 that subtracted 2% from growth, growth would have been 4%. Therefore, when
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Dallara Says Greek Euro Exit May Exceed 1 Trillion Euros
ECB, Emerging Markets
May 25, 2012
> > Apparently, MMT is a hard concept for the IIF to grasp. > Yes! Incompetent disgrace. No reason an exit has to cost them anything in real terms. But because they believe otherwise they’ll work to keep Greece in. Dallara Says Greek Euro Exit May Exceed 1 Trillion Euros By Andrew
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