Same pattern:
Also same pattern of covid dip, recovery, then weakness most recently:
US Factory Growth Slows in July
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 59.5 in July of 2021, the weakest in 6 months, compared to 60.6 in June and below forecasts of 60.9. New orders, production, and supplier deliveries increased less and inventories contracted. Meanwhile, employment rebounded and price pressures eased.
Looks like price hike mode?
New claims still running high, as are continuing claims. Federal unemployment benefits expire in about 6 weeks:
Same pattern- covid dip, recovery, fade, continuing the weakness that traces back to the tariffs:
Covid dip, recovery, and now a decline:
Covid dip, recovery, and now sideways at levels of some 25 years ago when there were a lot fewer people:
Through June,
Saudis caused the big dip and recovery, then attempted to stabilize.
The most recent Reuters report suggested price increases vs benchmarks,
which is a move to firm prices over time:
This chart is adjusted for inflation. Note the dip, recovery, and leveling off pattern:
Dip, recovery, and falling back. Not a good sign:
Dip, recovery, leveling off below pre covid levels:
Saudis have set in process a continuous increase in the price of oil.
This is exactly what happened in 2008.
The Fed’s reaction was to hike rates which only made the inflationary impact worse
all triggering the financial panic and crash, with no fiscal relief from a panicked Congress
relying on the Fed until March 09.
Only a change in Saudi pricing reverses this:
SINGAPORE – Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has raised the August official selling prices (OSPs) of all crude grades it sells to Asia, a pricing document seen by Reuters showed on Tuesday.
It set the August OSP for the flagship Arab light crude at $2.70 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average for Asia, up 80 cents from July.
Saudi term crude supplies to Asia are priced as a differential to the Oman/Dubai average:
ASIA
AUGUST JULY CHANGE
SUPER LIGHT +3.85 +2.85 +1.00
EXTRA LIGHT +2.70 +1.90 +0.80
LIGHT +2.70 +1.90 +0.80
MEDIUM +2.15 +1.35 +0.80
HEAVY +1.20 +0.40 +0.80
Same pattern only more so:
Americans spending more on imports= federal deficit spending that much less inflationary:
May exports were $206.0 billion, $1.3 billion more than April exports. May imports were $277.3 billion, $3.5 billion more than April imports.
Similar pattern:
Seems to showing the same pattern as the US- covid dip, recovery, fade:
Same pattern here too:
Higher prices bringing out supply?
Epic housing shortage may finally be starting to lift (cnbc.com)
Transfers coming down is slowing GDP growth:
Housing continues to slow/ the post covid bounce is fading:
Making a comeback but still a long way to go. This is a major driver of personal income. It also shows a lot of people are taking jobs, contrary to headlines of worker shortages:
This is only through April, but note that new hires are up to about 6 million jobs per month:
Another indicator the pace of the post covid recovery is fading:
