Economic Releases Archive

the President’s speech and markets

[Skip to the end] The speech made it clear there has been a shift to ‘fiscal responsibility’ with plans to pay back the 2 trillion in new debt, all well down the road. The spending freeze will pay half of it over time, and the rest from less specified sources that included ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Fairly strong report with orders up sharply and employment going in right direction… Dec Nov Index 55.9 53.6 Prices paid 61.5 55.0 Production 61.8 59.9 New Orders 65.5 60.3 Inventories 43.4 41.3 Employment 52.0 50.8 Export Orders 54.5 56.0 Imports 55.0 51.5 [top] ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Data ‘mixed’, with durables and income weak, but claims strong. New capital goods orders ex-aircraft and defense -2.9%; 3rd drop in 4mths Personal income 0.2%, but wage and salary income flat and down 3.6% y/y Core PCE deflator +0.2% m/m and 1.4% y/y Initial claims down ...Read More

productivity up 9.5%

[Skip to the end] Lower labor costs for the same sales (top lines were relatively flat) mean revenue is being shifted from compensation to profits, which carry a much lower propensity to consume than wages. This reduces aggregate demand, which is a good thing, as it means, for example, we can cut ...Read More

ISM Employment/Small Business Employment

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: The employment component of ISM yesterday was much stronger than expected at 53.1. Based on the chart below, one would expect to see claims near 350k and payrolls turn positive. We should find out soon enough if true or not, but the lower chart shows good ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Inventory rebuild in full swing—gap between orders and inventories at 34yr high; Timing of CARS definitely a factor but inventory rebuild more broadly to contribute anywhere from 2-3% to GDP gwth in H2. Employment reading still weak and outlook for final demand still poor due to ...Read More

Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index Increased to 50 in August

[Skip to the end] Just enough to keep additional fiscal measures off the table while unemployment remains around 10%. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index Increased to 50 in August By Courtney Schlisserman Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) — A measure of U.S. business activity rose more than forecast in August, adding to signs that the ...Read More

Claims/Philly Fed

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Data tug-of-war continues as manufacturing rebounding under inventory rebuild, but labor market stays weak and indicating that underlying demand not improving all that much Claims weaker than expected Initial up 15k to 576k with prior week revised +3k Continuing claims up 2k (prior week revised up ...Read More