Economic Releases Archive

Vehicle sales, commercial real estate investment, China services PMI, mortgage purchase apps

Still way down: I like the headline but the chart not so much: China Services PMI Rises to 3-Month High The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 53.8 in October 2021 from 53.4 in the prior month, pointing to the second straight month of expansion in the service sector and the ...Read More

Optimism index, Consumer sentiment, port congestion, lumber, iron ore, coal, steel, soybeans

Apparently ports are clearing: Several commodities seem to have peaked and then fallen back. Inflation is a continuous increase in the price level, so it doesn’t seem like that’s yet the case: ...Read More

China, Brazil manufacturing, US Construction Spending, coal

Seems a global thing: No recovery here: Another price reversal: GC Newcastle coal futures tumbled by over 30% to $150 per metric ton, the lowest in three months, and are more than 40% below a record high of $269.5 hit on October 5th, as China stepped up policies to boost output ahead ...Read More

GDP, Unemployment claims, China coal

Deficit spending as a % of GDP heading south fast: US GDP Growth Disappoints The American economy expanded an annualized 2% on quarter in Q3 2021, well below market forecasts of 2.7% and slowing sharply from 6.7% in Q2. It is the weakest growth of pandemic recovery as an infusion of government ...Read More

Trade, durable goods orders, iron ore

More reason for a fiscal adjustment that’s not happening: These are new orders so the slowing isn’t about supply issues: Lots of commodity charts looking something like this- post covid spikes fading most everywhere: ...Read More

Chicago Fed, gasoline consumption, miles driven, new home sales

This seems to be holding up, though not yet back to pre covid levels: Up a bit from last month, but still looking weak: ...Read More

Q3 GDP forecast, federal benefits, existing home sales

Not good. GDP heading toward recession: Now down vs same month last year: ...Read More

Industrial production, home builders index, housing starts, real estate loans

Weak again: A bit of improvement but still looking weak: No growth here: No sign that low rates have caused excess lending: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, oil prices, federal debt/GPD

Not looking good: Russians and Saudis now cooperating to set crude oil prices. Not good: Post covid fiscal contraction is underway and debt/gdp is forecast to fall a lot further. Most of the Federal assistance was the likes of unemployment benefits which have now expired and new spending programs from Congress seem ...Read More

Unemployment claims, employment, shipping costs, oil prices

Down a bit since Federal benefits expired. This materially cuts gov. spending: A lot worse than expected. They thought the end of Federal benefits would send people back to work. However, a cut in Federal spending cools down aggregate demand: Transitory comes to mind: Saudis and Russians are working together to set ...Read More