Economic Releases Archive

Consumer Credit, Small business index, JOLTS, Rig counts

Things are starting to add up better with this jump in consumer borrowing. With real disposable personal income growth near 0, and spending growing at just over 2.5% through November, it’s now looking like consumers ‘dipped into savings’ by running up their credit card balances which tends to be followed by reductions ...Read More

Bank loans and macro analysis

Bank lending began to decelerate after oil related capital spending collapsed late in 2014, and then collapsed further about the time of the presidential election: Note the consumer ‘dipping into savings’ some to sustain consumption via borrowing into year end as personal income flattened: Real disposable personal income flattened and consumer spending ...Read More

Employment, International trade

Weaker than expected, with the prior two months revised downward by a net 9,000 jobs. In any case employment growth continues its multi-year deceleration that began with the collapse of oil capex: Highlights Hiring cooled though employment levels are very high and there’s also a hint of wage inflation in December’s employment ...Read More

ADP, Light vehicle sales, Wolf quote

This is ADP’s forecast of tomorrow’s employment number. We’ll see tomorrow how well accurate they were: A bit higher than expected but down for 2017 vs 2016 (negative growth): Highlights Unit vehicle sales proved solid in December, at a 17.9 million annualized rate vs 17.5 million in November. Outside of October and ...Read More

Construction spending, Saudi Pricing, NY real estate

Prior month revised down, keeping the chart looking very weak for this ‘hard data’ release: Looks like the Saudis mean to keep a bit of upward pressure on prices. Perhaps to offset the weak $US, in which case the higher oil prices work to further weaken the $US: Saudis Seen Keeping Feb. ...Read More

Trade, Philly Fed Index, small business hiring

Worse than expected: Highlights Net exports look to be holding back fourth-quarter GDP following a second month of deep deficit in cross-border goods trade, at $69.7 billion in November following a revised $68.1 billion deficit in October. The monthly average for the third-quarter was much lower, at $63.8 billion. But there is ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Personal income and spending, Bank lending, New home sales, Consumer sentiment

As previously discussed, durable goods and manufacturing, after dipping in 2015 with collapse of oil capex, resumed modest growth from the lower levels which continues: Highlights A jump in aircraft skewed durable goods orders 1.3 percent higher in November which however is well below Econoday’s consensus for 2.0 percent and no better ...Read More

Current account, Housing starts

Another hurricane influenced number. Without the receipts from foreign insurance companies looks like it would have been about the same as last month: Highlights Hurricane receipts from foreign insurance companies for losses resulting from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria shaved $24.9 billion from the nation’s current account deficit to a much lower-than-expected ...Read More

Industrial production, Empire state manufacturing, Retail sales, PMI, Port traffic

Boring: Highlights A rise for mining offsets a dip for utilities making a modest 0.2 percent gain for manufacturing the story for November’s industrial economy. This report’s manufacturing component has been the only uneven indicator on the factory sector all year which limits the surprise of November’s results. Forecasters weren’t calling for ...Read More

Small business optimism survey, Private sector credit

Expectations all the more trumped up with the new tax bill, but the details show actual conditions aren’t doing so well: Highlights Optimism among small business owners is surging, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), whose Small Business Optimism Index rose 3.7 points in November to 107.5, the highest ...Read More