Tariffs taking a bite- deceleration in progress:

Corporate profits had been flat, got a one time boost from the tax cuts, and then flattened again:

The non financial’s have done even worse:

Contraction:

Up a bit last month, but note they are less than half of where they were the last cycle, and hovering around early 1980’s levels, when there were a lot fewer people:

Down to no annual growth:

More deceleration:

US Home Price Growth Slows to New 7-Year Low

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in the US rose 2% year-on-year in July, missing market expectations of 2.2%. It was the smallest annual gain in house prices since August 2012. Phoenix recorded the biggest increase in home prices, followed by Las Vegas and Charlotte, while the smallest gains were seen in San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles. Prices in Seattle continued to drop.

Highlights

The consumer confidence index had been showing exceptional strength but did fall back unexpectedly in September to 125.1 which is down sharply from a revised 134.2 in August and 135.8 in July. Nevertheless, this index has been trending higher this year in continued contrast to the rival consumer sentiment index which has been slumping noticeably.

The difference between the two indexes is the focus on labor market factors which are central to the consumer confidence report and where today’s results are mixed. Those saying jobs are currently hard-to-get did fall 4 tenths to 11.6 percent, which is a positive indication of increasing strength, in contrast to those who say jobs are currently plentiful which fell 5.5 percentage points to 44.8 percent. The outlook for future employment strength is negative with fewer saying there will be more jobs (17.5 vs August’s 19.9 percent) and more saying there will be fewer jobs (15.7 vs 13.7 percent).

A strong negative in today’s report is a sharp decline in those who see their income improving over the next months, falling to 19.0 percent versus August’s 24.7 percent, a downturn reflecting not only caution over the jobs outlook but also a tangible drop in stock market confidence where bears, at 35.3 percent, now outnumber bulls at 31.6 percent. This is the first time since January this year that bears are on top.

Among other readings, inflation expectations are flat at 4.8 percent, down 1 tenth for this reading from August, with buying plans all noticeably lower including for autos and homes.

Today’s report offers a measure of caution and if nothing else suggests that further acceleration in consumer spending, which the Federal Reserve considers to be by far the strongest segment of the economy, may be limited.

Still contracting:

Commercial loan growth has flattened this year:

Oil capex seems to be headed south again. Might take higher prices to bring it back. And the way the decline curves work output should be peaking soon and then declining:

Highlights

The Baker Hughes North American rig count is down 33 rigs in the September 20 week to 987. The U.S. rig count is down 18 rigs from last week to 868 and is down 185 rigs from last year at this time. The Canadian count is down 15 rigs from last week to 119 and, compared to last year, is down 78 rigs.

For the U.S. count, rigs classified as drilling for oil are down 14 rigs at 719, gas rigs are down 5 at 148 and miscellaneous rigs are up 1 at 1. For the Canadian count, oil rigs are down 11 at 82 and gas rigs are down 4 at 37.

Accelerating:

Trump unleashed: He’s talking more and tweeting more

It’s important not to mistake Trump’s own accessibility for transparency. As we documented in August, his lengthy exchanges with reporters in July and August were littered with dozens of false claims.
In general, there has been a strong correlation between how much Trump talks and how many false claims he makes. As his speaking time has increased over time, the frequency of his dishonesty has generally increased with it.
One way to visualize all this: it took Trump 343 days to make his first 1,000 false claims as president — then just 197 days to make his second 1,000, just 93 days to make his third 1,000, and just 75 days to make his fourth 1,000, Toronto Star editor Ed Tubb found when we worked for that newspaper. Trump then slowed a little after the midterms, taking 125 days to make his fifth 1,000.

Up some for the month, but remain weak and depressed historically, especially on a per capita basis:

Manufacturing surveys continue to forecast weakness:

I think what he wants rate cuts because he (and most everyone else) believes that will make the dollar go down which he further believes will reduce the trade deficit and support economic growth:

And the VP isn’t far behind the big guy:

Pence says other countries should ‘emulate’ US economic policies to catch up

Vice President Mike Pence said Thursday that other countries should “emulate” US policies.
However, he also said the US should imitate the policy of other nations who keep their interest rates anchored near zero.

Looks to me like Turkey has got it right- inflation will fall and the currency firm as they cut rates. But I don’t expect it to help the economy, but instead the rate cuts will likely weaken it, begging a fiscal adjustment to support employment and output:

Erdogan Says Turkey to Soon Cut Interest Rates to Single Digits

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey will lower interest rates to single digits soon and inflation will follow suit.

“We are lowering and will lower interest rates to single digits in the shortest period,” Erdogan said in a televised speech on Sunday. “After it falls to single digits, inflation will also slow to single digits.”

The drop in inflation after rate cuts is an apparent reference to Erdogan’s personal belief that price gains slow when the cost of borrowing is reduced. Most economists think the opposite is true.