GDP, Philly Fed

A modest annual increase from 3 month ago’s report, but still looks to have been trending lower as the tariffs took effect:

US GDP Grows 2.1% in Q4, Matches Forecasts

The US economy grew 2.1% in Q4, the same as in Q3 and matching forecasts, advance estimates showed. The expansion was supported by consumer and government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports. In contrast, negative contributions came from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment. Considering full 2019, the economy advanced 2.3%, the least since 2016 and missing Trump administration’s 3% target for the 2nd year.


This is not looking good either:

Durable goods, Richmond Fed

Downward revisions, and down when excluding military orders:

Orders for defense aircraft and parts went up 168.3 percent, offsetting a 74.7 percent plunge in demand for civilian aircraft and a 0.9 percent fall in demand for motor vehicles and parts. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent and excluding defense, orders dropped 2.5 percent. Also, new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell 0.9 percent. Considering full 2019, durable goods orders declined 1.5 percent, after an 8.1 percent rise in 2018.


This chart is looking up! Maybe ‘one time’ military orders here as well???

Jobs, Vehicle sales, Housing starts, Industrial production

Rolled over and heading lower:

Rolling over and heading south:

Had been rolling over but then this year end/good weather spike in December housing starts and lower rates probably worked to move activity forward from 2020. Permits had a small spike a bit earlier, and have since leveled off, and no house is built without a permit:


Deeper into negative territory as tax cut tailwind shifted to tariff headwind: