New home sales, Chicago Fed survey, Lumber prices, US survey

Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which means
to me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress,
and without a sufficient majority in the Senate all initiatives may be blocked indefinitely.


Most likely new home sales at best return to their pre covid growth path:


Trump was upset with Canada because they weren’t charging us enough for lumber:

Lumber prices across North America have nearly tripled since 2019. Based on a weekly price report by the B.C. Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resources, the price of SPF (spruce, pine, fir) 2×4 lumber – as of Sept. 18 – is at $1,288 per thousand board feet, up from a 2019 average annual of $499.

Vehicle sales, Retail sales, Industrial production

Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower levels:


As with vehicles, the rate of monthly sales has recovered to prior levels, but sales lost during the dip weren’t recovered:


Industrial production has had a much weaker recovery and has turned back down:


Recovered some but still down from pre covid levels: