Economic Releases Archive

ECB debt buying plan suffers fresh setback

ECB debt buying plan suffers fresh setback Another silly headline that completely misses the point of monetary operations. The ‘debt buying plan’ is a purely technical move to do what is called ‘offset operating factors’ as a means to hitting the ECB’s interest rate targets. The quantity of securities offered to do ...Read More

Valance Chartbook update- Weather or not the US is leveling off?

Chart Book ...Read More

GS Skinny: The Administration’s New Fiscal Proposals

The President’s proposal is now looking anemic at best. Like I think Woody Allen once said, the food was bad and the portions were small. This will cost the Dems even more seats in November. Fortunately the federal deficit is already large enough to support a bit of modest growth. All looking ...Read More

Valance Chart Review

Link: Valance Chart Review (PDF) ...Read More

PCE/Personal Income

Very good, looks like continuing muddling through with moderate growth unemployment drifting lower in a few months when there are no more hours to add to the existing labor force. Welcome to Japan, Mr. US bond market? Ok market for stocks, especially with Euro zone risk fading. Just China h2 risk left, ...Read More

the President’s speech and markets

[Skip to the end] The speech made it clear there has been a shift to ‘fiscal responsibility’ with plans to pay back the 2 trillion in new debt, all well down the road. The spending freeze will pay half of it over time, and the rest from less specified sources that included ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Fairly strong report with orders up sharply and employment going in right direction… Dec Nov Index 55.9 53.6 Prices paid 61.5 55.0 Production 61.8 59.9 New Orders 65.5 60.3 Inventories 43.4 41.3 Employment 52.0 50.8 Export Orders 54.5 56.0 Imports 55.0 51.5 [top] ...Read More

Updated: 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds

Link: Seven Deadly Frauds of Economic Policy (June 17, PDF Link) Order 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Monetary Policy $19.95 and Free Shipping in the Continental US! ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Data ‘mixed’, with durables and income weak, but claims strong. New capital goods orders ex-aircraft and defense -2.9%; 3rd drop in 4mths Personal income 0.2%, but wage and salary income flat and down 3.6% y/y Core PCE deflator +0.2% m/m and 1.4% y/y Initial claims down ...Read More

productivity up 9.5%

[Skip to the end] Lower labor costs for the same sales (top lines were relatively flat) mean revenue is being shifted from compensation to profits, which carry a much lower propensity to consume than wages. This reduces aggregate demand, which is a good thing, as it means, for example, we can cut ...Read More