Category Archives: Daily

2009-04-09 USER

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Karim writes:

View on US EconomySharp drawdown of inventories to lead to restocking to lead to positive contribution to Q2 growth (which will still be negative overall). This has reduced ‘depression’ view in markets. But fact remains that consumer spending (70% of GDP) will remain dire for some time as: labor market remains in tatters, massive household wealth loss from equities/housing, and savings rate continues to climb.

Savings is being fed by the growing deficit spending so that consumption and savings can now be sustained, as some of the recent consumption numbers seem to indicate. So flat consumption (off a low base) and any inventory build (off an extremely low base) has a chance of getting q2 to modestly positive gdp.

Fiscal policy will help.

Yes, adding more than 6% to gdp in q2 from where it would have been other wise.
That’s historically been sufficient to restore gdp to positive territory and fuel the next credit boom.

But with massive output gap (-7% according to CBO last week), economy faces deflationary threat for period ahead (see Fed minutes from yesterday). Fed to keep rates near zero through at least 2010.

Europe

  • German industrial production -2.9% in Feb (after -6.1% in Jan) and Italian industrial production -3.5% in Feb
  • Looks like Q1 at least -6 to -7% for European GDP

Yes, they recover only well after we do.

Report today calling for another 25bp cut to 1% in May, plan to announce framework to buy corporates, no clarity if 1% to be the low for o/n money.

ECB also ‘low for long’: Austrian Governor Nowotny today stated he expects inflation to remain below the ECB’s 2% target over the ‘medium term’, giving the bank room to keep rates at historically low levels for ‘some time’.

Other labor markets weakening sharply as well:

  • Chief Economist of Economic and Social Institute (affiliated with Japanese Cabinet Office) stated unemployment in Japan could climb from 3milllion to 5million between July and December this year
  • Canadian employment down 61k in March (was down over 90k prior month) and unemployment rate up from 7.7% to 8.0%
  • Australian employment down 34k in March, with unemployment rate rising from 5.2% to 5.7%

    • Both looking to substantial fiscal support as well.

    Trade Balance (Feb)

    Survey -$36.0B
    Actual -$26.0B
    Prior -$36.0B
    Revised -$36.2B

     
    Karim writes:

    • Surprise was trade balance improving from -36.bn to -26bn (-44bn to -35bn in real terms)
    • But cause for improvement was 5.1% collapse in imports (not caused by energy); capital goods imports -6%; industrial supplies -9.3%; consumer goods -3.9% and not a sign of a healthy economy

    Right, imports should be picking back up with April numbers which won’t be out for quite a while as the additional fiscal adjustments pile on to the automatic stabilizers which already may have the deficit north of 6$ of gdp annually.

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    Exports MoM (Feb)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 1.6%
    Prior -5.9%
    Revised n/a

     
    Karim writes:

  • Exports up 1.6% after 20% fall in prior 4mths

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    Imports MoM (Feb)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -5.1%
    Prior -6.7%
    Revised n/a

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    Exports YoY (Feb)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -16.9%
    Prior -16.5%
    Revised n/a

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    Imports YoY (Feb)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -28.8%
    Prior -22.8%
    Revised n/a

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    Trade Balance ALLX (Feb)

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    Import Price Index MoM (Mar)

    Survey 0.9%
    Actual 0.5%
    Prior -0.2%
    Revised -0.1%

     
    Karim writes:

  • Import prices up 0.5%, -0.7% ex-petroleum, and -0.6% from China.

    • Yes, any recovery will see crude prices pushing up the inflation indicators, however recent Saudi price cuts may indicate this could be delayed some.

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    Import Price Index YoY (Mar)

    Survey -14.7%
    Actual -14.9%
    Prior -12.8%
    Revised -12.7%

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    Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Mar)

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    Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Mar)

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 4)

    Survey 660K
    Actual 654K
    Prior 669K
    Revised 674K

     
    Karim writes:

  • Initial claims down 20k to 654k from upwardly revised prior week 674k; continuing claims continue to defy gravity, rising another 112k

    • While unemployment will continue to go up until nominal growth exceeds productivity increases, claims should start falling soon.

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    Continuing Claims (Mar 28)

    Survey 5800K
    Actual 5840K
    Prior 5728K
    Revised 5745K

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 4)


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2009-04-08 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.7%
Prior 3.0%
Revised n/a

 
More reasons nominal Q2 GDP can be positive- starting from some very low Q1 numbers.

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Apr 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 297.70
Prior 268.00
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Apr 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 6813.50
Prior 6600.10
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -.09%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.7%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Feb)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Feb)


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2009-04-07 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Apr 7)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Apr 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Apr 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.4%
Prior -0.6%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Apr 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Apr 7)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Apr)

Survey 45.8
Actual 49.1
Prior 45.3
Revised n/a


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2009-04-03 USER

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)

Survey -660K
Actual -663K
Prior -651K
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • A 663k drop in payrolls and -86k in net revisions is bad enough
  • The worst of it is the ongoing collapse in hours-the index of aggregate hours down another 1% last month
  • On a work force of 130mm, a 1% drop in hours has the same impact on labor income as a 1.3mm fall in payrolls if total hours were unch
  • The annualized drop in hours in Q1 was -8.7%-assuming 2-3% productivity growth; likely leaves real GDP in -5.5% to -6.5% area
  • Total unemployed, plus marginally attached workers, plus part-time for economic reasons up from 14.8% to 15.4% (16% to 16.2% unadjusted)
  • Only positive was diffusion index up from 21.4 to 22
  • But looking at industry breakdown, hard to find where that improvement came from
    • Manufacturing -161k
    • Construction -126k
    • Retail -48k
    • Finance -43k
    • Temp -72k
    • Govt -5k
    • Education +8k

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -4795.00
Prior -4254.00
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Mar)

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Unemployment Rate (Mar)

Survey 8.5%
Actual 8.5%
Prior 8.1%
Revised n/a

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Mar)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Mar)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Mar)

Survey -162K
Actual -161K
Prior -168K
Revised -169K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.9%
Prior -9.1%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Mar)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Mar)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Mar)

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Average Weekly Hours (Mar)

Survey 33.3
Actual 33.2
Prior 33.3
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.03%
Prior -21.43%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 186.39
Prior 193.05
Revised n/a

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Mar)

Survey 42.0
Actual 40.8
Prior 41.6
Revised n/a


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2009-04-02 USER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 28)

Survey 650K
Actual 669K
Prior 652K
Revised 657K

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Continuing Claims (Mar 21)

Survey 5590K
Actual 5728K
Prior 5560K
Revised 5567K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Mar 28)

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Factory Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.8%
Prior -20.5%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Feb)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.8%
Prior -1.9%
Revised -3.5%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Feb)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Feb)


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2009-04-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 32.2%
Revised n/a

 
More evidence of the rising deficit turning the economy sideways ahead of the fiscal package kicking in this month to increase the injection of net financial assets to the non government sectors:

US mortgage applications climb, rates at fresh low

by Lynn Adler

Apr 1 (Reuters) — The Mortgage Bankers Association’s applications index, which includes both refi and purchase requests, rose by a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the week ending March 27 to 1,194.4.

The purchase applications index was little changed, rising 0.1 percent to 268.0, while the refinancing gauge gained 3.7 percent to 6,600.1.

This is up sharply from 2,722.7 as recently as early February.

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 268.00
Prior 267.80
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 6600.10
Prior 6363.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7%
Prior 158.4%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Mar)

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ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -663K
Actual -742K
Prior -697K
Revised -706K

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ADP ALLX (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey 36.0
Actual 36.3
Prior 35.8
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey 33.0
Actual 31.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -0.9%
Prior -3.3%
Revised -3.5%

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Construction Spending YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.0%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior -7.7%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.2%
Prior -6.6%
Revised n/a


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2009-03-31 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.3%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Mar 31)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey 147.20
Actual 146.40
Prior 150.66
Revised 150.56

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jan)

Survey -18.60%
Actual -18.97%
Prior -18.55%
Revised -18.60%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.00
Revised n/a

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.55%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Mar)

Survey 34.3
Actual 31.4
Prior 34.2
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Survey 28.0
Actual 26.0
Prior 25.0
Revised 25.3

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Mar)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Mar)

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NAPM Milwaukee (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 30.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a


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2009-03-27 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised 0.2%

 
Karim writes:

  • Personal income down 0.2%, down 4 of last 5mths, and up 1% y/y
  • Wage and salary income down 0.4%, down 4mths in a row, and -0.2% y/y
  • Personal spending up 0.2%, and down 0.2% in real terms
  • Based on Jan-Feb data, real Q1 spending may be flat from -4.3% in Q4
  • But because of weakening trend thru Q1, sets up for another negative in Q2
  • Saw one forecaster change Q1 estimate from -7.2% to -6.5% and leave Q2 estimate unch at -4.8%

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Personal Income YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.0%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Feb)

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Personal Spending (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 1.0%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Feb)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 0.7%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

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PCE Core YoY (Feb)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.6%
Revised 1.7%

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U of Michigan Confidence (Mar F)

Survey 56.8
Actual 57.3
Prior 56.6
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Final Michigan survey for March showed small upward revision in confidence: 56.6 to 57.3 (Feb was 56.3)
  • 5-10yr inflation expectations revised lower: 2.8 to 2.6 (Feb was 3.1)

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    U of Michigan Confidence TABLE Inflation Expectations (Feb)


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2009-03-26 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q F)

Survey -6.6%
Actual -6.3%
Prior -6.2%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.8%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.9%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -4.4%
Actual -4.3%
Prior -4.3%
Revised n/a

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Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 21)

Survey 650K
Actual 652K
Prior 646K
Revised 644K

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Continuing Claims (Mar 14)

Survey 5475K
Actual 5560K
Prior 5473K
Revised 5438K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Mar 21)


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2009-03-25 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.2%
Prior 21.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 267.80
Prior 257.10
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 6363.20
Prior 4497.60
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Feb)

Survey -2.5%
Actual 3.4%
Prior -5.2%
Revised -7.3%

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -28.9%
Prior -27.9%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior -4.0%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Feb)

Survey -2.0%
Actual 3.9%
Prior -2.5%
Revised -5.9%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Feb)

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New Home Sales (Feb)

Survey 300K
Actual 337K
Prior 309K
Revised 322K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 330.00
Prior 340.00
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -2.9%
Actual 4.7%
Prior -10.2%
Revised -13.2%

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New Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -41.1%
Prior -46.1%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 200.90
Prior 206.80
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Feb)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Feb)


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