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retail sales/import prices

WARREN MOSLER — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:44:19 +0000

Karim writes:

Headline retail sales stronger than expected at 1.29% and ex-autos also firm at 1.23%

But ex-autos and gasoline closer to expectations at 0.64% and control group (feeds into GDP) in line at 0.50%.

Headline import prices firm at 1.7%, but 0.7% ex-petroleum, and 0.4% ex-all fuels.

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Data Review

WARREN MOSLER — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:43:16 +0000

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Karim writes:

â€˜Mixedâ€™

Claims

Initial down 12k to 545k

Continuing + Emergency + Extended up 161k

Housing

Starts up 0.2% in August with single family down 3%, first drop in this sector since Feb

Permits up 2.7% with single family down 0.2%, first drop in this sector since March

Philly Fed

Headline improves 10pts to 14.1, but details on the weak side (headline not a weighted avg of components)

Prices Paid less Prices Received, new orders, and number of employees all worsen. Improvement most notable in current shipments.

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Retail/PPI

WARREN MOSLER — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:32:28 +0000

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Karim writes:

Retail sales weaker than expected (especially in light of fact that May/June were peak months for consumer provisions in stimulus package)

0.6% headline; 0.3% ex-autos; -0.2% ex-autos and gasoline

PPI

Headline up 1.8%; 0.5% core; driven by 3.4% gain in light truck prices; ex-vehicles, core unch

Intermediate stage (1.9%/0.4%) and crude (4.6%/2.6%) largely driven by energy prices that have since reversed

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ISM (non-Mfg)

WARREN MOSLER — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:40:28 +0000

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(email exchange)

yes,

seems second quarter earnings should be better than expected and that costs are way down which will
add to profitability even with flattish sales.

and very wide net interest margins will support bank earnings growth even with low volume and continuing losses.

this can be a very good environment for stocks.

Karim writes:

Details a bit firmer than headline.

Overall, still contracting at a slower rate.

June May

Composite 47.0 44.0

Activity 49.8 42.4

Prices paid 53.7 46.9

New Orders 48.6 44.4

Employment 43.4 39.0

Export Orders 54.5 47.0

Imports 47.0 46.0

“Business has improved and holding steady.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

“Activity level is flat. Clients are delaying capital spending decisions.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

“Economy may be stabilizing. Second half looks more positive than first half.” (Information)

“Have begun spending government stimulus funding, and expect conditions to gradually improve in the near future.” (Public Administration)

“Occupancy levels continue to increase at a slow pace.” (Accommodation & Food Services)

“Activity is still slow and little has changed since last month.” (Wholesale Trade)

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Bernanke/ISM

WARREN MOSLER — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 17:40:11 +0000

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Karim writes:

Doesnâ€™t break a lot of new ground. Forecasts appears consistent with prior statements and still casts financial markets in a fragile light despite recent run-up in equities. Makes no mention of upping asset purchases and issues longer-term fiscal warning:

*The most recent information on the labor market–the number of new and continuing claims for unemployment insurance through late May–suggests that sizable job losses and further increases in unemployment are likely over the next few months.

Agreed. And unemployment continues to increase until GDP growth outpaces productivity gains.

*Recent data also suggest that the pace of economic contraction may be slowing.

*Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions.

*We continue to expect overall economic activity to bottom out, and then to turn up later this year.

Agreed. Deficit spending is not large enough to support aggregate demand and savings desires at levels that equate to modest GDP growth

*Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, implying that the current slack in resource utilization will increase further.

Agreed. And weak overseas economies both limit export growth and bode for increased imports.

And higher crude and product prices raise nominal imports and dampen us domestic demand.

Also, state and local govt are also just now engaging in cutbacks and tax increases.

*Financial markets and financial institutions remain under stress, and low asset prices and tight credit conditions continue to restrain economic activity.

Yes, this allows lower taxes and/or higher government spending to support aggregate demand. Unfortunately, the noises from the administration are moving in the other direction, with President Obama’s latest statement that the US has ‘run out of money.’

*Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth.

I do not agree. In my book fiscal responsibility means supporting demand at desired levels of output and employment.

Financial sustainability is not an issue with non convertible currency and floating exchange rate policy, as it was when on the pre 1934 gold standard..

Non-Mfg ISM up from 43.7 to 44 but details weaker.

New orders down from 47 to 44.4

Backlogs down 44 to 40

Export and import orders both down

This indicates the slowing in the rate of decline is slowing, supporting the forecasts of nominal GDP hovering near 0 and unemployment continuing to rise.

Employment up from 37 to 39

Prices paid up from 40 to 46.9

There could be a rethinking of the output gap and an upward adjustment of the ‘neutral rate of unemployment if CPI continues to rise.

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Incomes up .5%

WARREN MOSLER — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 14:52:51 +0000

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U.S. Consumer Spending in April Decreases 0.1%; Incomes Gain

By Courtney Schlisserman

June 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. consumer spending fell in April for a second straight month as concern over rising unemployment prompted consumers to save.

The 0.1 percent drop in purchases was smaller than forecast and followed a 0.3 percent decrease in March that was larger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The savings rate jumped to the highest level in 14 years.

Economists forecast spending would fall 0.2 percent, according to the median of 63 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.3 percent to a gain of 0.2 percent.

Incomes climbed 0.5 percent, the biggest gain in almost a year, reflecting increases in unemployment insurance benefits and social security payments associated with the Obama administration’s stimulus plan. Income was projected to also fall 0.2 percent, matching the March decrease.

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Durable Goods Order/Claims

WARREN MOSLER — Thu, 28 May 2009 13:25:55 +0000

Karim writes:

Durable Goods Order/Claims

Durables goods orders +1.9% headline; -1.5% ex-aircraft and defense (this is the measure used for the private sector capex component of GDP)

Defense up 23.2% m/m; here are the prior 3mths for defense orders in 2009 (-11%;+33%;-40%)

Shipments ex-defense -0.3%

Inventories -0.8% (unexpected as most felt inventory drawdown was over in Q1)

Initial claims fall to 623k from 636k (revised up from 631k)

Continuing claims up another 110k

Data shows economy still contracting; look for range of estimates for Q2 from -2% to -4%

USER 5-14-2009

WARREN MOSLER — Sun, 17 May 2009 18:14:38 +0000

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Producer Price Index MoM (Released 8;30 EST)

Producer Price Index YoY (Released 8:30 EST)

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Released 8:30 EST)

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Released 8:30 EST)

Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)

Continuing Claims (Released 8:30 EST)

Jobless Claims ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)

Producer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.2%

Actual 0.3%

Prior -1.2%

Revised n/a

Karim writes:

PPI

0.2% m/m; -3.7% y/y

Core PPI 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y

Intermediate stage -0.5% m/m and -10.5% y/y; core intermediate -0.9% m/m and -3.8% y/y

Crude stage 3.0% m/m and -40% y/y; core crude -0.6% m/m and -39.9% y/y

Pipeline pressures continue to collapse

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Producer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey -3.7%

Actual -3.7%

Prior -3.5%

Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%

Actual 0.1%

Prior 0.0%

Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.4%

Actual 3.4%

Prior 3.8%

Revised n/a

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Initial Jobless Claims (May 1)

Survey 610K

Actual 637K

Prior 601K

Revised 605K

Karim writes:

IJC up 32k to 637k, Labor Dept states â€˜good partâ€™ of rise due to Chrysler plant shutdowns

Continuing up another whopping 202k to 6560k

The continuing claims data reflect lack of hiring and correlates to further rises in the unemployment rate and drop in personal income (assuming your job paid more than unemployment benefits)

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Continuing Claims (May 1)

Survey 6400K

Actual 6560K

Prior 6351K

Revised 6358K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (May 1)

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2009-05-13 USER

WARREN MOSLER — Wed, 13 May 2009 12:56:32 +0000

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Karim writes:

Falling wage and salary income and rising savings rate continuing to take a toll on consumer spending.

Recent pick-up in gas prices also likely hurting discretionary spending.

April retail sales -0.4% and -0.5% ex-autos (expectations +0.2%)

March ex-autos revised from -0.9% to -1.2%

April, Ex-gas, -0.2%

April, Control group (feeds into PCE component of GDP), -0.3%

Need a very sharp rebound in May/June to prevent Q2 PCE from being negative due to combined March/April weakness.

Downside risks to Q2 GDP now as low as -5%

Import prices up 1.6%, -0.4% ex-petroleum and -0.5% from China

MBA Mortgage Applications (Released 7:00 EST)

MBA Purchasing Applications (Released 7:00 EST)

MBA Refinancing Applications (Released 7:00 EST)

Bloomberg Global Confidence (Released 7:00 EST)

Import Price Index MoM (Released 8:30 EST)

Import Price Index YoY (Released 8:30 EST)

Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST)

Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST)

Advance Retail Sales MoM (Released 8:30 EST)

Advance Retail Sales YoY (Released 8:30 EST)

Retail Sales Less Autos (Released 8:30 EST)

Business Inventories MoM (Released 10:00 EST)

Business Inventories YoY (Released 10:00 EST)

MBA Mortgage Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a

Actual -8.6%

Prior 2.0%

Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a

Actual 265.70

Prior 264.30

Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a

Actual 4588.60

Prior 5169.30

Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)

Survey n/a

Actual 38.72

Prior 21.20

Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.6%

Actual 1.6%

Prior 0.5%

Revised 0.2%

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Import Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey -16.8%

Actual -16.3%

Prior -14.9%

Revised -15.3%

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.0%

Actual -0.4%

Prior -1.1%

Revised -1.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a

Actual -10.1%

Prior -9.6%

Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)

Survey 0.2%

Actual -0.5%

Prior -0.9%

Revised -1.2%

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Business Inventories MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.1%

Actual -1.0%

Prior -1.3%

Revised -1.4%

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Business Inventories YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a

Actual -4.8%

Prior -3.6%

Revised n/a

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2009-05-12 USER

WARREN MOSLER — Tue, 12 May 2009 17:08:43 +0000

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Released 7:45 EST)

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Released 7:45 EST)

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST)

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Released 8:55 EST)

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Released 8:55 EST)

Trade Balance (Released 8:30 EST)

Exports MoM (Released 8:30 EST)

Imports MoM (Released 8:30 EST)

Exports YoY (Released 8:30 EST)

Imports YoY (Released 8:30 EST)

Trade Balance ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)

IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Released 10:00 EST)

Monthly Budget Statement (Released 14:00 EST)

Monthly Budget Statement ALLX (Released 14:00 EST)

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (May 12)

Survey n/a

Actual 0.5%

Prior -0.8%

Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (May 12)

Survey n/a

Actual 0.3%

Prior 0.7%

Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (May 12)

Survey n/a

Actual 0.3%

Prior 0.3%

Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (May 12)

Survey n/a

Actual 0.1%

Prior 1.5%

Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (May 12)

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Trade Balance (Mar)

Survey -$29.0B

Actual -$27.6B

Prior -$26.0B

Revised -$26.1B

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Exports MoM (Mar)

Survey n/a

Actual -2.4%

Prior 1.5%

Revised n/a

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Imports MoM (Mar)

Survey n/a

Actual -1.0%

Prior -5.1%

Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a

Actual -17.0%

Prior -17.4%

Revised n/a

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Imports YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a

Actual -27.0%

Prior -28.7%

Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Mar)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (May)

Survey 51.0

Actual 48.6

Prior 49.1

Revised n/a

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Monthly Budget Statement (-)

Survey -

Actual -

Prior -

Revised -

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Monthly Budget Statement ALLX (-)

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	June	May
Composite	47.0	44.0
Activity	49.8	42.4
Prices paid	53.7	46.9
New Orders	48.6	44.4
Employment	43.4	39.0
Export Orders	54.5	47.0
Imports	47.0	46.0