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Archive for the 'Daily' Category

retail sales/import prices

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 11th December 2009


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Karim writes:

  • Headline retail sales stronger than expected at 1.29% and ex-autos also firm at 1.23%
  • But ex-autos and gasoline closer to expectations at 0.64% and control group (feeds into GDP) in line at 0.50%.
  • Headline import prices firm at 1.7%, but 0.7% ex-petroleum, and 0.4% ex-all fuels.


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

Data Review

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 17th September 2009


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Karim writes:

‘Mixed’

Claims

  • Initial down 12k to 545k
  • Continuing + Emergency + Extended up 161k

Housing

  • Starts up 0.2% in August with single family down 3%, first drop in this sector since Feb
  • Permits up 2.7% with single family down 0.2%, first drop in this sector since March

Philly Fed

  • Headline improves 10pts to 14.1, but details on the weak side (headline not a weighted avg of components)
  • Prices Paid less Prices Received, new orders, and number of employees all worsen. Improvement most notable in current shipments.


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Posted in Daily, Employment, Fed, Housing | 1 Comment »

Retail/PPI

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 14th July 2009


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Karim writes:

Retail sales weaker than expected (especially in light of fact that May/June were peak months for consumer provisions in stimulus package)

  • 0.6% headline; 0.3% ex-autos; -0.2% ex-autos and gasoline

PPI

  • Headline up 1.8%; 0.5% core; driven by 3.4% gain in light truck prices; ex-vehicles, core unch
  • Intermediate stage (1.9%/0.4%) and crude (4.6%/2.6%) largely driven by energy prices that have since reversed


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

ISM (non-Mfg)

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 6th July 2009


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(email exchange)

yes,

seems second quarter earnings should be better than expected and that costs are way down which will
add to profitability even with flattish sales.

and very wide net interest margins will support bank earnings growth even with low volume and continuing losses.

this can be a very good environment for stocks.


Karim writes:

Details a bit firmer than headline.

Overall, still contracting at a slower rate.



June May
Composite 47.0 44.0
Activity 49.8 42.4
Prices paid 53.7 46.9
New Orders 48.6 44.4
Employment 43.4 39.0
Export Orders 54.5 47.0
Imports 47.0 46.0

“Business has improved and holding steady.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

“Activity level is flat. Clients are delaying capital spending decisions.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

“Economy may be stabilizing. Second half looks more positive than first half.” (Information)

“Have begun spending government stimulus funding, and expect conditions to gradually improve in the near future.” (Public Administration)

“Occupancy levels continue to increase at a slow pace.” (Accommodation & Food Services)

“Activity is still slow and little has changed since last month.” (Wholesale Trade)


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Posted in Daily, Equities, Karim | 1 Comment »

Bernanke/ISM

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 3rd June 2009


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Karim writes:

Doesn’t break a lot of new ground. Forecasts appears consistent with prior statements and still casts financial markets in a fragile light despite recent run-up in equities. Makes no mention of upping asset purchases and issues longer-term fiscal warning:

*The most recent information on the labor market–the number of new and continuing claims for unemployment insurance through late May–suggests that sizable job losses and further increases in unemployment are likely over the next few months.

Agreed. And unemployment continues to increase until GDP growth outpaces productivity gains.

*Recent data also suggest that the pace of economic contraction may be slowing.

*Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions.

*We continue to expect overall economic activity to bottom out, and then to turn up later this year.

Agreed. Deficit spending is not large enough to support aggregate demand and savings desires at levels that equate to modest GDP growth

*Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, implying that the current slack in resource utilization will increase further.

Agreed. And weak overseas economies both limit export growth and bode for increased imports.

And higher crude and product prices raise nominal imports and dampen us domestic demand.

Also, state and local govt are also just now engaging in cutbacks and tax increases.

*Financial markets and financial institutions remain under stress, and low asset prices and tight credit conditions continue to restrain economic activity.

Yes, this allows lower taxes and/or higher government spending to support aggregate demand. Unfortunately, the noises from the administration are moving in the other direction, with President Obama’s latest statement that the US has ‘run out of money.’

*Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth.

I do not agree. In my book fiscal responsibility means supporting demand at desired levels of output and employment.

Financial sustainability is not an issue with non convertible currency and floating exchange rate policy, as it was when on the pre 1934 gold standard..


Non-Mfg ISM up from 43.7 to 44 but details weaker.

  • New orders down from 47 to 44.4
  • Backlogs down 44 to 40
  • Export and import orders both down


This indicates the slowing in the rate of decline is slowing, supporting the forecasts of nominal GDP hovering near 0 and unemployment continuing to rise.

  • Employment up from 37 to 39
  • Prices paid up from 40 to 46.9


There could be a rethinking of the output gap and an upward adjustment of the ‘neutral rate of unemployment if CPI continues to rise.


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Posted in Daily, Deficit, Fed, Government Spending | 5 Comments »

Incomes up .5%

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 1st June 2009


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U.S. Consumer Spending in April Decreases 0.1%; Incomes Gain

By Courtney Schlisserman

June 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. consumer spending fell in April for a second straight month as concern over rising unemployment prompted consumers to save.

The 0.1 percent drop in purchases was smaller than forecast and followed a 0.3 percent decrease in March that was larger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The savings rate jumped to the highest level in 14 years.

Economists forecast spending would fall 0.2 percent, according to the median of 63 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.3 percent to a gain of 0.2 percent.

Incomes climbed 0.5 percent, the biggest gain in almost a year, reflecting increases in unemployment insurance benefits and social security payments associated with the Obama administration’s stimulus plan. Income was projected to also fall 0.2 percent, matching the March decrease.


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

Durable Goods Order/Claims

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 28th May 2009

Karim writes:

Durable Goods Order/Claims

  • Durables goods orders +1.9% headline; -1.5% ex-aircraft and defense (this is the measure used for the private sector capex component of GDP)
  • Defense up 23.2% m/m; here are the prior 3mths for defense orders in 2009 (-11%;+33%;-40%)
  • Shipments ex-defense -0.3%
  • Inventories -0.8% (unexpected as most felt inventory drawdown was over in Q1)
  • Initial claims fall to 623k from 636k (revised up from 631k)
  • Continuing claims up another 110k
  • Data shows economy still contracting; look for range of estimates for Q2 from -2% to -4%

Posted in Daily, Karim | 2 Comments »

USER 5-14-2009

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 17th May 2009


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Producer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior -1.2%
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

PPI

  • 0.2% m/m; -3.7% y/y
  • Core PPI 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y
  • Intermediate stage -0.5% m/m and -10.5% y/y; core intermediate -0.9% m/m and -3.8% y/y
  • Crude stage 3.0% m/m and -40% y/y; core crude -0.6% m/m and -39.9% y/y
  • Pipeline pressures continue to collapse

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Producer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -3.7%
Prior -3.5%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.8%
Revised n/a

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Initial Jobless Claims (May 1)

Survey 610K
Actual 637K
Prior 601K
Revised 605K

Karim writes:

  • IJC up 32k to 637k, Labor Dept states ‘good part’ of rise due to Chrysler plant shutdowns
  • Continuing up another whopping 202k to 6560k
  • The continuing claims data reflect lack of hiring and correlates to further rises in the unemployment rate and drop in personal income (assuming your job paid more than unemployment benefits)

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Continuing Claims (May 1)

Survey 6400K
Actual 6560K
Prior 6351K
Revised 6358K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (May 1)


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Posted in Daily, Uncategorized, USA | No Comments »

2009-05-13 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 13th May 2009


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Karim writes:

Falling wage and salary income and rising savings rate continuing to take a toll on consumer spending.

Recent pick-up in gas prices also likely hurting discretionary spending.

  • April retail sales -0.4% and -0.5% ex-autos (expectations +0.2%)
  • March ex-autos revised from -0.9% to -1.2%
  • April, Ex-gas, -0.2%
  • April, Control group (feeds into PCE component of GDP), -0.3%
  • Need a very sharp rebound in May/June to prevent Q2 PCE from being negative due to combined March/April weakness.
  • Downside risks to Q2 GDP now as low as -5%

Import prices up 1.6%, -0.4% ex-petroleum and -0.5% from China


MBA Mortgage Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.6%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 265.70
Prior 264.30
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 4588.60
Prior 5169.30
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 38.72
Prior 21.20
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.2%

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Import Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey -16.8%
Actual -16.3%
Prior -14.9%
Revised -15.3%

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.1%
Prior -9.6%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.9%
Revised -1.2%

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Business Inventories MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.1%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.4%

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Business Inventories YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -3.6%
Revised n/a


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

2009-05-12 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 12th May 2009


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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (May 12)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (May 12)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (May 12)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (May 12)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (May 12)

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Trade Balance (Mar)

Survey -$29.0B
Actual -$27.6B
Prior -$26.0B
Revised -$26.1B

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Exports MoM (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.4%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

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Imports MoM (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.0%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.0%
Prior -17.4%
Revised n/a

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Imports YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -27.0%
Prior -28.7%
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Mar)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (May)

Survey 51.0
Actual 48.6
Prior 49.1
Revised n/a

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Monthly Budget Statement (-)

Survey -
Actual -
Prior -
Revised -

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Monthly Budget Statement ALLX (-)


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

2009-05-08 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 8th May 2009


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Karim writes:

  • NFP -539k; net revisions -66k, and +60k contribution from census workers (census workers will add about 75k jobs/mth thru year-end)
  • Underlying trend doesn’t show any real change
  • Index of aggregate hours down another 0.6% and avg weekly earnings up 0.1%
  • Wage and salary component of personal income will be down again (hours x jobs x wages)
  • Unemployment rate up from 8.54% to 8.87%; total unemployment rate up from 15.6% to 15.8%
  • Only good news was diffusion index rising from 20.3 to 28.2
  • Consensus on CNBC was this would be the ‘last, really bad number’, mostly on grounds of running out of people to fire.
  • I guess ‘really bad’ wasn’t ‘really defined’, but judging by the workweek data, doesn’t seem like material improvement anytime soon.


Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)

Survey -600K
Actual -539K
Prior -663K
Revised -699K

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -5240.00
Prior -4861.00
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Apr)

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Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Survey 8.9%
Actual 8.9%
Prior 8.5%
Revised n/a

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr)

Survey -155K
Actual -149K
Prior -161K
Revised -167K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.7%
Prior -10.0%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Apr)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Apr)

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Average Weekly Hours (Apr)

Survey 33.2
Actual 33.2
Prior 33.2
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.6%
Prior -1.5%
Revised -1.7%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.5%
Prior -1.9%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Mar)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Mar)


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

2009-05-07 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 7th May 2009


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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (1Q P)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.6%

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (1Q P)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (1Q P)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (1Q P)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 3.3%
Prior 5.7%
Revised n/a

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (1Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (May 2)

Survey 635K
Actual 601K
Prior 631K
Revised 635K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 25)

Survey 6350K
Actual 6351K
Prior 6271K
Revised 6295K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (May 2)


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Posted in Articles, Daily | No Comments »

2009-05-06 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 6th May 2009


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MBA Mortgage Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior -18.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 264.30
Prior 251.60
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 5169.30
Prior 5108.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 47.0%
Prior 180.7%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Apr)

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ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey -645K
Actual -491K
Prior -742K
Revised -708K

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ADP ALLX (Apr)


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

2009-05-05 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 5th May 2009


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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (May 5)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.8%
Prior -1.7%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (May 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.7%
Prior -0.7%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (May 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (May 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.6%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (May 5)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Apr)

Survey 42.2
Actual 43.7
Prior 40.8
Revised n/a


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

Six minute video by Mike Norman and his dog John Maynard Canine

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 4th May 2009


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Mike asked me to post this to get your comments.

Video of Mike Norman and his dog John Maynard Canine


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Posted in Daily | 7 Comments »

2009-05-01 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 1st May 2009


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U of Michigan Confidence (Apr F)

Survey 61.9
Actual 65.1
Prior 61.9
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Final April rises to 65.1 from prelim 61.9
  • Inflation expectations edge down from 3.0% to 2.8% for 1yr fwd; edge up from 2.7% to 2.8% for 5yr fwd

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U of Michigan Confidence TABLE Inflation Expectations (Apr F)

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Factory Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.6%
Prior -19.7%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 38.4
Actual 40.1
Prior 36.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • In line with signal provided by Chicago PMI yesterday. Improvement to a still contractionary level; orders boosted by some new found availability of cash/credit, though not all the way back (see anecdote below).
  • All sub-components up;16 or 17 industries still contracting.

Commodities Up in Price

Copper is the only commodity reported up in price.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum; Aluminum Based Products; Caustic Soda; Corrugated Containers; Fuel Surcharges; Natural Gas; Scrap Metal; Steel; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

  • “International customers are having trouble getting cash for new orders, even though they need/want the equipment.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Starting to see some signs of increased production and demand from some automotive customers.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Business conditions continue to be soft, but agriculture-related products are still quite bullish.” (Machinery)
  • “We are optimistic that things will change for the better in 3Q.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Starting to hear of slight upticks in orders from some sectors of our business but not all.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

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ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 34.0
Actual 32.0
Prior 31.0
Revised n/a


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

2009-04-30 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 30th April 2009


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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k
  • Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report
  • Those numbers will in turn cause the data we received today on incomes and wages for March, to worsen from already historically weak levels.
  • Personal income -0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y
  • Wage and salary component of income -0.5% m/m and -1.2% y/y (prior all-time low was -0.3% y/y)
  • Personal spending -0.2%. Q1 profile for real personal spending= +0.9% in Jan, +0.1% in Feb, and -0.2% in Mar. This will create a challenge for the PCE component of GDP for Q2.
  • ECI up 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y in Q1, both all-time lows
  • Chicago PMI for April up from 31.4 to 40.1
  • Looks like national ISM should bounce to about 39-40 tomorrow after 36.3
  • Fed comments yesterday seem to echo what I heard from ECB/BOE: Recent bounce in PMIs seem unrelated to prospects for recovery in late 2009/early 2010.


Personal Income MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Mar)

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Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

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PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.6%

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (1Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25)

Survey 640K
Actual 631K
Prior 640K
Revised 645K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 18)

Survey 6200K
Actual 6271K
Prior 6137K
Revised 6138K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 25)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey 35.0
Actual 40.1
Prior 31.4
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 39.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »

Note on quantitative easing

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 29th April 2009


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Note written by an ‘in paradigm’ associate:

Growth in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet indicates that it is acting as a financial intermediary, but it doesn’t say anything useful about real economic activity or prospects for inflation. Even when the Fed buys Treasury debt from the private sector in return for cash, it is only substituting one financial claim on government for another of identical nominal value. This transaction doesn’t change the net financial assets of the private sector – so there is no obvious economic impact. Similarly, the Fed can encourage or even require banks to hold more and more excess reserves, but to what end ? Bank lending is not constrained by a lack of reserves, it is limited by capital ratios and the opportunity set for profitable lending. In this context, reserve growth increases gross balance sheets, but has no economic consequences.

What might be said about quantitative easing (QE), is that the Fed has to bid up bond prices (forcing yields down)in order to acquire Treasuries in the secondary market. At the margin, this has the potential to induce changes in portfolio preferences and push investors into more risky assets. So, QE might have some second order effects on financial assets prices, but still no logical or direct connection to generalized price inflation.

Some potential causes of inflation going forward might include sustained fiscal stimulus of sufficient proportion to more than offset the spontaneous decline in private sector demand that we are witnessing. If this were to use up existing capacity, then the probability for inflation goes up. Furthermore, even before we reach full capacity domestically, some of the growth in aggregate demand will leak overseas. Many of our imports have low elasticities and their prices could rise quickly. The most obvious example is crude oil. This would result in upward pressure on reported inflation even with broader economic growth below trend. In other words, a partial recovery of aggregate demand without energy policy reform could be inflationary.

I would hasten to add that none of this is original thinking and most of it is common sense. I found it odd that so many of the brilliant and successful people that you assembled last week relied on vague notions of “monetarism” or “Keynesianism” to frame their views and reverted to jargon rather than analysis to argue their points.


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Posted in Articles, Daily | 3 Comments »

Back from a week off

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 29th April 2009


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Been away for a week.

First impressions:

Seems world fiscal responses both automatic and more recently proactive have turned the tide.

Looking for a quick return to positive GDP (from very depressed levels) helped by very low inventories in general.

But relatively slow returns to ‘normal’ in many sectors as well.

And central banks doing a lot of foot dragging regarding rate hikes due to large continuing output gaps (high unemployment).

The eurozone lags as it’s passed on proactive fiscal measures and instead is waiting for exports to pick up, and makes these kinds of counterproductive noises:

“The European Union (EU) has officially opened the excessive deficit procedure against Ireland, Greece, Spain and France since their budget deficits shot up beyond the EU’s limit amid the financial crisis.

The decisions, which were taken by EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, required the four countries, as well as Britain, which had been under the excessive deficit procedure, to take corrective actions to rein in their deficits by Oct. 27, 2009.

Under the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact, all member states have to keep their budget deficits below 3 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP).”

Q1 Earnings generally better than expected.

This is all very good for US equities.

A few selected somewhat positive headlines from the past week with the most recent on top:

Malaysia Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged as Export Slump Eases
South Korean Current Account Rises, N.Z. Exports Gain
China’s Economy Recovering on Investment Surge, Citic Says
European Retail Sales Decline Least in 11 Months
European Confidence Rises for First Time in 11 Months
ECB’s Wellink Doesn’t See ‘Real Deflation’ in Europe
Tumpel-Gugerell Says ECB Sees No Deflation Risk, Badische Says
Germany’s Economy to Return to Growth Next Year
B0E spots hopeful economic signs
U.K. Has Biggest Budget Deficit Since World War II
U.K. Mortgage Lending Rose 16% in March, CML Says
Industrial Production Index Seen Up For 1st Time In 6 Months
Govt Submits Record Extra Budget For FY09 To Finance Fresh Stimuli
China’s External Demand Showing Signs of Recovery, Sun Says
China to launch more stimulus investment in second quarter
China Central Bank’s Yi Sees Signs of Economy Rebound
WB official: China a ‘bright spot’ in 2009 world economy


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Posted in Articles, Daily | 4 Comments »

2009-04-29 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 29th April 2009


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.1%
Prior 5.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 251.60
Prior 253.00
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 5108.20
Prior 6540.70
Revised n/a

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GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)

Survey -4.7%
Actual -6.1%
Prior -6.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (1Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.6%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (1Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (1Q)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.9%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (1Q)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption (1Q)

Survey 0.9%
Actual 2.2%
Prior -4.3%
Revised n/a

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FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 29)

Survey 0.25%
Actual 0.25%
Prior 0.25%
Revised n/a


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Posted in Daily | 2 Comments »