Currencies Archive

Greek bank liquidity, credit check

So people transferred their deposits to other banks, and those other banks wouldn’t redeposit/lend those euro back to the Greek banks via the interbank market, at any rate of interest. So instead the lost deposits were replaced by what functionally are deposits from the ECB via what’s called the ELA. What’s wrong ...Read More

EU Industrial Production, Credit Check, Atlanta Fed

Even with increasing net exports, over all GDP isn’t benefiting all that much, as fiscal policy and structural reforms that assist exports do so by restricting incomes and domestic demand to achieve ‘competitiveness’. Additionally, negative rates and QE remove some interest income from the economy, which also restricts domestic demand to some ...Read More

Saudi output, Greek statement, EU pmi

Saudi output up a bit. As they post prices and let their refiners buy all they want at those prices, this shows demand is up a bit, likely because of a supply disruption elsewhere, like Libya, for example: As suggested all along: In an interview with Realnews newspaper published on Saturday, Economy ...Read More

macro update

At the beginning of 2013 the US let the FICA tax reduction and some of the Bush tax cuts expire and then in April the sequesters kicked totally some $250 billion of proactive deficit reduction. This cut 2013 growth from what might have been 4% to just over half that, peaking in ...Read More

CPI

Today’s markets reacted entirely to the .3 increase in core CPI which was actually 0.26 which rounded to 0.3. This, for example, caused the dollar to gap up for the day vs the euro, as traders and portfolio managers acted on the beliefs that it made a Fed hike more likely to ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, LA port traffic, EU trade surplus, German ZEW, housing starts, redbook retail sales

No positive change here yet: This was supposed to rebound: LA area Port Traffic Decreased in April By Bill McBride May 18 (Calculated Risk) — Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic surged in March as the waiting ships were unloaded (the ...Read More

Railcar traffic, Draghi statement, NY manufacturing survey, Industrial production, Consumer confidence

Rail Week Ending 09 May 2015: Data Still Not Pretty. Rail Softness Continues. (Econintersect) — Week 18 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic improved, which accounts for half of movements – ...Read More

claims, producer prices, euro comments, public sector jobs

Just a reminder, claims measure those losing jobs who file for benefits, not new hires: Jobless Claims The euro has been moving higher vs the dollar, as CB selling winds down as they reach the lower limits of their reserve targets along with fundamental support from a large and growing EU current ...Read More

Buy signal?

Mr. Draghi said at the time that “there is no going back to the lira or the drachma or to any other currency. It is pointless to bet against the euro. It is pointless to go short on the euro.” ...Read More

Euro update and anecdotal econ news

This gives you a pretty good idea of the magnitude of euro selling by central banks. The question is when are they finished, and perhaps, when foreign exporters again pressure their cb’s to increase holdings to target the euro zone for exports, which is the reason the cb’s originally bought the euro. ...Read More