Category Archives: Credit

Re: Fed study on TAF

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>    
>    On Tue, Jul 29, 2008 at 4:05 AM, Andrea wrote:
>    
>    In case you haven’t seen this yet: A Fed study that finds that
>    Taf has lowered Libor.
>    
>    http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr335.html
>    
>    

right, thanks, as if they needed to fund a study to figure that out!

It’s like doing a study that shows the repo rate goes down when the fed lowers its ‘stop’ on repo.

(Too bad they didn’t use this study to show they should set a rate for the TAF and let quantity float, instead of setting a quantity and having an auction.)

It’s this kind of expense that gives govt. a govt. spending negative connotation.

all the best!

warren


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2008-07-25 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

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A touch higher last week, but still seems to be working its way lower.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Jul 25)

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IG6 Spreads (Jul 25)

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IG7 Spreads (Jul 25)

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IG8 Spreads (Jul 25)

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IG9 Spreads (Jul 25)


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( Commercial Paper + C&I ) * Outstanding

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Summation of Commercial Paper Outstanding AND Combined Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding

Combined commercial and industrial loans and commercial paper show a leveling off after the initial drop.

Back in mid 2006, I remember commenting that I thought the government deficit was no longer high enough (given everything else that was going on) to support the credit structure.

The last push up was largely a product of fraudulently obtained sub prime and Alt-A loans.


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2008-07-21 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

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Looks and feels like spreads will be generally narrowing for a considerable period of time.

Bank earnings are better than expected with revenues growing nicely.

GDP, income, and spending being sustained by a growing government budget deficit, exports, and housing leveling off and no longer subtracting from growth.

‘Inflation’ continues with Saudi’s supporting prices and pass-throughs intensifying.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Jul 18)

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IG6 Spreads (Jul 18)

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IG7 Spreads (Jul 18)

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IG8 Spreads (Jul 18)

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IG9 Spreads (Jul 18)


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2008-07-14 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

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IG On-the-run Spreads (Jul 14)

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IG6 Spreads (Jul 14)

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IG7 Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG8 Spreads (Jul 14)

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IG9 Spreads (Jul 14)

First Bear Stearns, and now the agencies confirm the government is there to ‘write the check’; so, I expect credit spreads to continue to narrow over time.


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2008-07-07 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

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IG On-the-run Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG6 Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG7 Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG8 Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG9 Spreads (Jul 7)

Still working its way higher.


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2008-06-16 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

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IG On-the-run Spreads

IG6 Spreads

IG7 Spreads

IG8 Spreads

IG9 Spreads

The wiggles down give the Fed comfort that markets are functioning to price risk.


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