Credit Archive

ADP, ISM non manufacturing, Interview, Saudi output, credit chart, Inflation chart, claims chart, Mueller team news

Lower than expected and last month revised lower: Highlights ADP sees June private payrolls rising 158,000 which misses Econoday’s ADP consensus of 180,000. Econoday’s consensus for actual private payrolls in Friday’s employment report is 164,000 which isn’t likely to shift following ADP’s results. Estimates this year from ADP have been hit and ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales, Oil capex, Business equipment borrowing, Equipment sales, New home sales

Inching up a bit but still seriously depressed: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Weekly mortgage applications have been very volatile so far this year but mostly to the upside. Purchase applications jumped 5.0 percent in the January 22 week with refinancing applications up 11.0 percent. Low mortgage rates are driving the activity, down ...Read More

Consumer Credit, Oil comment

Looks like the last blip up just got reversed so it continues to go nowhere and it’s at levels higher than before the last recession: Consumer Credit Highlights Revolving credit barely made it into the plus column in October, up $0.2 billion for what is, however, an eighth straight gain. Non-revolving credit, ...Read More

Rail traffic, Credit check, Employment flows, State and local taxes and expenditures

Rail Week Ending 28 November 2015: Contraction Growing Faster. Rail Traffic in November Down 10.4%. Week 47 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic contracted year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of ...Read More

Credit check

Nothing of consequence here. Growth still below prior cycles and not accelerating as it was beginning to do before oil capex collapsed: While growth of real estate lending is still far below the prior cycle, it has been increasing, probably due to fewer ‘all cash’ purchases, and the modest recovery in prices ...Read More

Consumer Credit, Credit Check, Rail Traffic, Employment Charts

Consumer Credit Highlights In a record report, consumer credit data are strongly confirming the strength of the consumer. Credit outstanding surged $28.9 billion in September for the largest gain in the history of the series which goes back to 1941. Nonrevolving credit, in part reflecting vehicle financing and also student loans, rose ...Read More

Rail traffic, Personal Income, Credit Check

Rail Week Ending 24 October 2015: A Worse Week Among Bad Weeks Week 42 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) and monthly total rail traffic (from same month one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic ...Read More

Truck tonnage, Philly Fed Coincident Index, ECB policy, Credit Check

Signs of stabilizing: So the ECB threatened more negative rates and QE, both placebos at best, analogous to spraying the crowd with a barrage of blanks, which nonetheless dispersed the crowd. However, with the record and growing euro area 31 billion trade surplus last month and a growing US trade deficit augmented ...Read More

Credit check, ECRI WLI Growth Index, Rail Week

Still no sign of acceleration: Though still how historically, the growth rate in real estate secured lending has picked up some, probably reflecting fewer cash buyers and the modest increases in sales: This is up some as well. Note that it went up gradually into the last recession, probably because when things ...Read More

Consumer Credit

Now looking like this peaked as oil prices collapsed: Consumer Credit Highlights Revolving credit continues to show life, up a solid $4.0 billion in August for a sixth straight gain. Gains in this reading, which have been scarce this recovery, perhaps suggest that consumers are growing less reluctant to run up their ...Read More