Yuan Peg Spurs Exports


[Skip to the end]

If the yuan is ‘naturally’ stronger than that it means they are accumulating dollar reserves without the wrath of the US administration.
This will encourage other potential exporters to do the same and help the dollar find a bottom.

The Eurozone, however, remains ideologically inhibited from buying dollars yet is also determined to support demand through exports.

Crude oil remains key. Higher prices make dollars ‘easier to get’ overseas, lower prices make the dollar ‘harder to get.’

Yuan Peg Spurs Exports, Luring Pimco as Dollar Sinks

By Bloomberg News

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) — Investors are the most bullish on the yuan in 14 months as China’s exporters say the currency’s link to the slumping dollar is helping revive sales.

Contracts based on expectations for the currency’s value a year from now show the yuan will appreciate 3 percent, compared with estimates for 0.5 percent two months ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards touched 6.5440 per dollar on Oct. 20, the strongest level since August 2008. They rose 0.3 percent to 6.6265 today, compared with a spot exchange rate of 6.8275.

The dollar’s decline against all 16 of the most-active currencies in the past six months has made Chinese exports more competitive because the government has pegged the yuan to the greenback since July 2008. Union Investment and Martin Currie Investment Management Ltd., which oversee a total of $250 billion, are buying contracts that will profit from an end to the peg, predicting the yuan will gain 5 percent a year.

“Exports are beginning to pick up,” said Douglas Hodge, the chief operating officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s largest bond fund. “The fact that the dollar has fallen makes the yuan cheaper relative to the euro and the yen, so it does begin to improve their export picture.”


[top]

gasoline demand this year vs same week 2 years ago


[Skip to the end]

This is more interesting than the year over year chart, as last year had quite a few shocks in it.
We went from growing demand a couple of years ago to falling/flat demand currently.

The rest of the Valance charts show much the same.
After a large fall it generally looks like it has flattened out, but no sign of a general recovery.
And a lot of indicators are still falling.
Personal income, for example is still falling by a few tenths year over year.
And core CPI is in a nose dive.

The difference this time around may be the zero rates lingering around long enough take effect.
Might be that with 0 rates we need a lot lower taxes for a given amount of gov spending than otherwise.

No harm in leading with a payroll tax holiday, per capita revenue sharing for the states, and a federally funded $8/hr job
for anyone willing and able to work that includes health care.

(I’m out for a few days joining Karim in DC for meetings.)


[top]

Investors Plan to Go Overweight Commodities, Credit Suisse Says


[Skip to the end]

Turning into a stampede?

People want it.

They are scared of the fed ‘printing money’ even in the face of obvious excess capacity?

Watch for storage costs to go up/contangos where there is not a monopolist setting price?

Good market for producers who sell forward, getting paid by investors paying up for forwards/storage?

Investors Plan to Go Overweight Commodities, Credit Suisse Says

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — More than half of investors surveyed
by Credit Suisse Group AG said they plan to hold an overweight
position in commodities in the next 12 months, double the
proportion with such a weighting now.

Of the 180 investors surveyed last month, 51 percent said
they expected to hold an overweight position in the next year,
34 percent a neutral weighting and 13 percent underweight. That
compares with 25 percent overweight now, 38 percent neutral and
30 percent underweight.

The most popular route for commodity investment will likely
be active indexes or funds, followed by exchange-traded funds,
according to the survey, e-mailed by the bank yesterday. Of
those surveyed, 44 percent were from hedge funds and 22 percent
from institutional funds.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities posted a
record 36 percent decline last year and rebounded 13 percent
this year. Assets under management at commodity hedge funds
increased 6 percent this year to $60.61 billion as of the end of
August, according to Hedgefund.net.

Expectations that inflation will accelerate and the dollar
weaken contributed to investor demand for commodities this year,
Kamal Naqvi, head of global commodity investor sales at Credit
Suisse in London, said by phone today.

Thirty-nine percent said natural gas would be the best
performer among energy products over the following 12 months,
with 32 percent picking crude oil.

Among industrial metals, 59 percent expected aluminum to be
the worst performer over the period, while 51 percent thought
copper would advance the most.


[top]

Fate of the US Dollar?


[Skip to the end]

I think they want to accumulate financial assets and would like to get a currency they could feel good about to do that.

And at the same time they want to net export.

The only way they could do that is to somehow ‘force’ us to borrow their new currency in order for us to net import from them.

It would be easier for them to instead come up with an inflation index and only sell their exports in exchange for financial assets linked to their new inflation index. As long as the financial assets are linked to their index the currency of denomination isn’t critical. But credit worthiness would be critical.

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>>   The following was printed in the Independent in the UK. Doesn’t this move
>>   threaten the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency?
>   

Doesn’t matter what anything is ‘priced in’ as that is just a numeraire. What matters is what the ‘save in’ which determines trade flows.

>   
>   Interesting. A political move.
>   Seems a clumsy project though: they need to find a name for this ‘basket
>   currency’ (petrodollar?) and then accept payments in any ‘real’ currency
>   equivalent to the value of the ‘petrodollar’ at the time of payment.
>   Possible that all will continue to use dollars for payment.
>   Economic consequences will depend on whether this has any effect on the
>   willingness of foreigners to hold the given amount of dollars they own.
>   

>>   
>>   â€œIn the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf
>>   Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France to end
>>   dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including
>>   the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified
>>   currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including
>>   Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar. Secret meetings have already
>>   beenheld by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China,
>>   Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no
>>   longer be priced in dollars.”
>>   


[top]

Q3 Update


[Skip to the end]

With quarter end now behind us,
I am watching for signs of:

The gold bubble bursting
Equity sell off after quarter end window dressing
Crude leveling off after quarter end window dressing
Dollar strength with lingering Eurozone problems and global concern about losing US market share
Post clunker and post first time home buyer credits softening those series
BMA and rates curves flattening
Accelerating M and A
More political unrest as real terms of trade continue to deteriorate


[top]

China’s Commodity Stockpiles Prompt Market Concerns, Hands-on China Report, Jing Ulrich


[Skip to the end]

Looks like they are running their own passive commodity fund for a portion of their reserves!

China’s Commodity Stockpiles Prompt Market Concerns

By Jing Ulrich

Following record inflows of base metals, iron ore, crude oil and coal this year, investors are questioning whether the surge in imports of industrial commodities reflects a recovery in end-demand or excessive stockpiling. Imports of most base metals have softened month-on-month, reflecting an end to government stockpiling and rising domestic production – but remained high by historical standards in July. With current stockpiles at elevated levels for major industrial commodities, there is some near-term risk that a turn in market sentiment could trigger destocking by speculative traders and merchants, bringing continued price weakness.

– Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports have surpassed last year’s peak at 76.5mn tons, equivalent to about 1 month of consumption. Steelmakers’ iron ore inventories are estimated at 30-40mn tons. Spot iron ore vessel bookings from Australia and Brazil to China have declined to a 9-month low, reflecting ample stocks and the recent slump in steel prices.

– China’s crude steel output reached an all-time record in early August. With major mills running near full capacity, overproduction is the primary reason for the recent price weakness. Steel inventories at the traders’ level have risen 21% since June, suggesting that inventory destocking could continue to weigh on steel prices.

– China’s coal imports totaled 62.2mn tons from Jan-Jul, compared to 40.8mn tons in FY08, while inventory at China’s main coal port is down 7.5% from a month earlier and 29% from July’s peak. Higher imported coal prices and the restructuring of smaller mines in recent months should result in lower imports going forward.

– Surging imports of iron ore and other bulk commodities increased demand for capesize ships earlier in the year, boosting the Baltic Dry Index. However, expectations of some moderation in China’s appetite for iron ore have contributed to a correction of 44% since early-June, to a level of ~2400 since late-August. Freight rates may remain under pressure due to overcapacity in dry bulk shipping.

– China’s crude oil imports jumped 42% YoY in July to reach a record 4.6 million bpd (19.6 mt) level. Although the government’s expansion of strategic petroleum reserves, may occasionally bolster monthly imports, higher oil imports primarily reflect the demand recovery.

– According to Chalco, aluminum inventories held by traders and warehouses amount to 500,000-600,000 tons, and industry oversupply is expected to last for 3 years.

The attached note provides an update of inventory, production and demand conditions for major industrial commodities.


[top]

Levy Policy Brief

The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
Public Policy Brief
No. 103, 2009

FINANCIAL AND MONETARY ISSUES
AS THE CRISIS UNFOLDS
James K. Galbraith

Beginning page 9:

Warren Mosler picked up on the theme of human resource
utilization and full employment in a particularly useful way.
Mosler suggested that stabilization of employment and prices is
akin to a buffer stock—something to which surpluses can be
added when demand is low, and drawn down when it is high.
Normally, a buffer stock works on a price signal: the authorities
agree to buy when market prices are below the buffer and to sell
when they are above. In this way, prices stabilize at the buffer
price. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is potentially a good
example, though political decisions have prevented it from being
used as it should be.

The problem with most commodity buffers is elasticity of
supply: create a buffer stock in wool, and suddenly it pays to raise
sheep. But this problem is cured if the buffer stock is human
labor, which cannot be reproduced quickly. A program that provides
a public job at a fixed wage for all takers functions exactly
like a buffer stock, stabilizing both total employment and the
bottom tier of the wage structure. People can move in and out of
the buffer as private demand for their services varies. Meanwhile,
the work done in the buffer—the fact that people are working
rather than receiving unemployment insurance—helps keep the
buffer “fresh.” Private employers like hiring those who already
work, and will prefer hiring from the federal jobs program rather
than from among those who remain unemployed.

The point is: the problem of unemployment is easily cured,
without threat of inflation. It is merely sufficient to provide jobs,
at a fixed wage, to whoever wants them, and to organize work
that needs to be done. Such work should be socially useful and
environmentally low impact: from child care to teaching and
research, to elder care to conservation to arts and culture. Where
possible, it should contribute to global public and knowledge
goods. It should compete as little as possible with work normally
done in the private sector; for instance, by serving those who
cannot afford private sector provision of teaching and care. The
point is not to socialize the economy but to expand the range of
useful activity, so that what needs doing in society actually gets
done. The barrier to all this is simply a matter of politics and
organization, not of money.

The effect, nevertheless, would be to raise all private sector
wages to the buffer-stock minimum (say, $8/hour in the United
States), while eliminating the reserve of unemployed used to
depress wages in low-skilled private sector industries. There will
be no pressure to raise wages above the buffer threshold, since private
employers providing higher wages can draw on an indefinitely
large workforce willing, for the most part, to move from the
buffer to the private sector in return for those wages. Hence, the
program is not inflationary. There is therefore no excuse for waiting
a year or two years on the assumption that unemployment
will cure itself, and every reason to believe that at the end of such
a policy of “hopeful waiting,” the discovery will be made that the
problem has not been cured.

current storage situation for both petroleum and clean products


[Skip to the end]

Looks like the temporary storage is moving into likely cheaper land based storage.

And much is probably already sold forward into the contango, as forward buying causes spreads to widen to the point where someone buys it spot and sells it forward for enough of a markup to cover storage costs and provide a desired return on capital.

By setting price and letting quantity pumped adjust, the Saudis/OPEC provide an incentive not to store crude and over time that policy should cause the contango to move to backwardation.

On the other side, passive commodity strategies by investors do the reverse, so at the moment it looks like they are in control.

There is a kind of oceanic traffic jam out there among very large crude carriers (VLCCs), with something like 7% (according to Lloyd’s) of them storing crude oil off the coast of Europe, Asia, or North America in anticipation of higher prices later this year. Such are the joys of contango — higher forward prices making it profitable to store petroleum for future sale — but it is a huge gamble. If the people contracting for such VLCCs are wrong, their carrying costs mount and it becomes likely that they just dumb the product on the markets, further depressing prices.

Check the following figure (from EA Gibson) of the current storage situation for both petroleum and clean products, like gasoil:. While crude sea storage has declined from its peak earlier this year, clean products are floating out there is ever larger amounts.


[top]