Category Archives: China

Swan Says Australian Budget Surplus Goal Is Correct Strategy

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Let’s hope ‘better lucky than good’ keeps working for them:

Swan Says Australian Budget Surplus Goal Is Correct Strategy

By Elisabeth Behrmann

April 8 (Bloomberg) — Australia’s low unemployment compared with other industrialized nations and record investment make returning the budget to surplus the right strategy, Treasurer Wayne Swan said.

“With solid growth, contained inflation, very low public debt, low unemployment and a record pipeline of investment, we are the envy of virtually every advanced economy,” Swan said in his economic note today. Returning the budget to a surplus during fiscal 2012-13 is “the right strategy for an economy returning toward trend growth.”

Swan, who is preparing Australia’s budget for release on May 8, faces the challenge of balancing a drop in revenue against a government pledge to deliver a surplus in the 12 months through June next year. While the resources boom is benefiting Western Australia and Queensland, retailers and manufacturers are facing tough conditions in other states.

In the past month, Australian government reports have shown fourth-quarter gross domestic product expanded at half the pace economists forecast, and the weakest exports in almost three years led to Australia’s first trade deficit in 11 months in January.

Mining investment in Australia, the world’s biggest exporter of iron ore and coal, is estimated to reach A$120 billion ($124 billion) next year, an increase of around 155 percent in two years, Swan said last month.

‘Best Defense’

“Claims that the return to surplus is putting growth at risk overlook the fact that the government’s budget strategy has been clear and consistent for a long time,” Swan said. “Returning the budget to surplus is our best defense and is a key sign of our strong economy.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates unchanged on April 3, while signaling it may resume cutting rates as soon as next month if weaker-than-forecast growth slows inflation.

Returning the budget to surplus is “the right thing to do,” Prime Minister Julia Gillard said April 1, while pledging to support jobs. Australia has battled natural disasters, including record floods in Queensland last year, that have hampered economic activity, including tourism as well as export of coal.

China is Australia’s biggest trading partner, and the RBA has said it expects Chinese demand for commodities to remain strong even as recent data painted a mixed picture of the world’s second-largest economy.

Australia has grown more dependent on resources as employment in manufacturing dropped by about 30 percent since 2007, while mining and government payrolls rose by more than 50 percent, HSBC Holdings Plc estimates.

“Maintaining our credible fiscal policy also sends a strong message of confidence to investors across the world in uncertain times,” Swan said.

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FOX News: Boy in China reportedly sells kidney to purchase iPhone and iPad

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Boy in China reportedly sells kidney to purchase iPhone and iPad

April 6 — A teenage high-school student in China sold his kidney for an illicit transplant operation and used the proceeds to buy an Apple iPhone and iPad, state press said on Friday.

The 17-year-old boy, who was paid $3,500, was recruited from an online chat room and is now suffering from kidney failure and in deteriorating health, the Xinhua news agency said.

A surgeon and four others have been arrested and are facing charges of illegal organ trading and intentional injury.

The kidney donor, only identified by his surname Wang, agreed to the April 2011 operation in the central province of Hunan without his parents’ consent, the report said.

One of those detained was a hard-up gambler identified as He Wei, who acted as a middle-man between a hospital worker and the teenager.

Health ministry statistics show that about 1.5 million people in China need transplants, but only around 10,000 transplants are performed annually.

The huge gap has led to a thriving illegal market for organs.

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Yen Drops Versus Peers as Tankan Fuels Easing Speculation

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Right!
Lower rates!
More QE!

Be patient, monetary policy works with a lag
It’s only been 20 years
Hyper inflation is just around the corner…

Yen Drops Versus Peers as Tankan Fuels Easing Speculation

April 2 (Bloomberg) — The yen weakened versus all of its major peers after a Bank of Japan (8301) report showed that sentiment failed to improve at the nation’s largest companies, stoking prospects the central bank will boost monetary stimulus.

The Japanese currency slid against the dollar and euro as signs that manufacturing is improving in the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies, undermined demand for haven assets. The euro remained higher after a quarterly gain versus the greenback as European governments called for a bigger global financial emergency fund after engineering a firewall to fight the region’s debt crisis.

“The worse-than-expected Tankan survey seems to be fueling talk that the BOJ will ease policy further,” Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore, said about the central bank’s quarterly sentiment survey. “This is probably leading to selling of the yen.”

The yen lost 0.4 percent to 83.18 per dollar as as of 10:19 a.m. in Tokyo. It slid 0.4 percent to 110.97 per euro. Europe’s 17-nation currency was little changed at $1.3341 after rising 3 percent versus the greenback in the three months ended March 31.

The Tankan index for Japan’s largest manufacturers was unchanged last quarter from minus 4 in December, the BOJ said today in Tokyo. That was less than the median estimate of minus 1 in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. A negative number means pessimists outnumber optimists.

BOJ Meetings

BOJ policy board members are scheduled to meet April 9-10 and April 27 this month. The central bank held off from expanding asset purchases at its meeting in March as it monitored improvements in the economy. In February, it expanded bond purchases by 10 trillion yen ($120 billion) and set a 1 percent inflation goal in February.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index for the U.S. probably rose to 53 last month from 52.4 in February, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the figures are released today.

An index of Chinese manufacturing climbed to 53.1 last month, the highest since March 2011, the logistics federation and the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. The measure has a pattern of rising each March.

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Global themes

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  • Austerity everywhere keeps domestic demand in check and export channels muted
  • Non govt credit expansion pretty much stone cold dead in the US and Europe
  • Rising oil energy prices subduing global aggregate demand
  • US federal deficit just about enough to muddle through with modest GDP growth
  • Rest of world public deficits also insufficient to close output gaps, including China which has calmed down considerably
  • Zero rate policies/QE/etc. in the US, Japan, and Europe doing their thing to keep aggregate demand down and inflation low as monetary authorities continue to get that causation backwards
  • All good for stocks and shareholders, not good for most people trying to work for a living
  • Europe still in slow motion train wreck mode, with psi bond tax risk keeping investors at bay and ECB waiting for things to get bad enough before intervening

So still looking to me like a case of

‘Because we fear becoming the next Greece, we continue to turn ourselves into the next Japan’

The only way out at this point is a private sector credit expansion, which, in the US, traditionally comes from housing, but doesn’t seem to be happening this time. Past cycles have seen it come from the sub prime expansion phase, the .com/y2k boom, the S&L expansion phase, and the emerging market lending boom.

But this time we’re being more careful of ‘bubbles’ (just like Japan has done for the last two decades). So I don’t see much hope there.

Still watching for the euro bond tax idea to surface, which I see as the immediate possibility of systemic risk, but no real sign yet.

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Japan to purchase 65 billion yuan in China government debt

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Part of the general move of the current govt to exit deflation via weakening the yen, as previously discussed. Look for Japan to be increasing total fx reserves, and in multiple currencies. The only thing that might stop them is being called on it by the US Treasury secretary.

Japan to purchase 65 billion yuan in China government debt

By Stanley White

March 13 (Reuters) — Japan said on Tuesday it had received approval from China’s government to purchase 65 billion yuan ($10.3 billion) in Chinese government debt in a move that can help Japan diversify its reserves away from the dollar and strengthen economic ties between the two Asian countries.

The timing of purchases hasn’t been set yet as Japan still needs to make some administrative preparations, but Japan is likely to start with a small amount and then increase purchases, Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi said.

Japan will also consider the impact on financial markets when it decides the timing of its purchases, Azumi said.

China said on Monday it would continue its purchases of Japanese government debt but would reduce purchases when the yen is rising as China and Japan, holders of the largest and second-largest currency reserves, look to limit exposure to the dollar.

“We feel this is an appropriate amount when considering our mutual goal of strengthening economic cooperation between Japan and China,” Azumi told reporters.

Japan and China agreed at a summit in December to facilitate trade between the yen and the yuan as part of a broader push to strengthen economic cooperation.Japan said on Tuesday it had received approval from China’s government to purchase 65 billion yuan ($10.3 billion) in Chinese government debt in a move that can help Japan diversify its reserves away from the dollar and strengthen economic ties between the two Asian countries.

The timing of purchases hasn’t been set yet as Japan still needs to make some administrative preparations, but Japan is likely to start with a small amount and then increase purchases, Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi said.

Japan will also consider the impact on financial markets when it decides the timing of its purchases, Azumi said.

China said on Monday it would continue its purchases of Japanese government debt but would reduce purchases when the yen is rising as China and Japan, holders of the largest and second-largest currency reserves, look to limit exposure to the dollar.

“We feel this is an appropriate amount when considering our mutual goal of strengthening economic cooperation between Japan and China,” Azumi told reporters.

Japan and China agreed at a summit in December to facilitate trade between the yen and the yuan as part of a broader push to strengthen economic cooperation.

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GEI article is up

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Eurozone: How to Drive an Economy in Reverse

By Warren Mosler

February 27 — The situation in Greece brings me back to the conclusion that merely resolving solvency issues in the Eurozone doesn’t fix the economy. Solvency must not be an issue, but if there is negative growth, solvency math simply doesn’t work for any of the Euro members.

Without growth in the Eurozone the resolution (for now) of the Greek crisis will simply result in the focus moving on to one of the next weaker sisters. As this happens the risk remains that other countries in trouble will ask for haircuts on their debt (similar to Greece) as part of their rescue. And that could trigger a general, global, catastrophic financial meltdown.

Follow up:
Monetary and Fiscal Expansion are Needed

My first order proposal remains an ECB distribution on a per capita basis to the euro member nations of maybe 10% of euro zone GDP per year to put the solvency issue behind them. Along with relaxed budget rules, maybe allowing deficits up to 6% of GDP annually, further supported by the ECB funding a transition job at a non disruptive wage to facilitate the transition from unemployment to private sector employment. I might also recommend deficits be increased by suspending VAT as a way to increase aggregate demand and lower prices at the same time.

Alternatively, the ECB could simply guarantee all national government debt and rely on the growth and stability pact for fiscal discipline, which would probably require enhanced authorities.

And rather than trying to bring Greece’s deficit down to current target levels, they could instead relax the growth and stability pact limits to something closer to full employment levels. And, again, I’d look into suspending VAT to both increase aggregate demand and lower prices.

Strong Euro First

However, all policies seem to be ‘strong euro’ first. And the ‘success’ of the euro continues to be gauged by its ‘strength’.

The haircuts on the Greek bonds are functionally a tax that removes that many net euro financial assets. Call it an ‘austerity’ measure extending forced austerity to investors.

Other member nations will likely hold off on turning towards that same tax until after Greece is a ‘done deal’ as early noises could work to undermine the Greek arrangements, and take the ‘investor tax’ off the table.

Like most other currencies, the euro has ‘built in’ demand leakages that fall under the general category of ‘savings desires’. These include the demand to hold actual cash, contributions to tax advantaged pension contributions, contributions to individual retirement accounts, insurance and other corporate ‘reserves’, foreign central bank accumulations of euro denominated financial assets, along with all the unspent interest and earnings compounding.

Offsetting all of that unspent income (private savings) is, historically, the expansion of debt, where agents spend more than their income. This includes borrowing for business and consumer purchases, which includes borrowing to buy cars and houses. In other words, net savings of financial assets are increased by the demand leakages and decreased by credit expansion. And, in general, most of the variation is due to changes in the credit expansion component.

Austerity in the euro zone consists of public spending cuts and tax hikes, which have both directly slowed the economies and increased net savings desires, as the austerity measures have also reduced private sector desires to borrow to spend. This combination results in a decline in sales, which translates into fewer jobs and reduced private sector income. Which further translates into reduced tax collections and increased public sector transfer payments, as the austerity measures designed to reduce public sector debt instead serve to increase it.

Now adding to that is this latest tax on investors in Greek debt, and if the propensity to spend any of the lost funds of those holders was greater than zero, aggregate demand will see an additional decline, with public sector debt climbing that much higher as well.

All of this serves to make the euro ‘harder to get’ and further support the value of the euro, which serves to keep a lid on the net export channel. The ‘answer’ to the export dilemma would be to have the ECB, for example, buy dollars as Germany used to do with the mark, and as China and Japan have done to support their exporters. But ideologically this is off the table in the euro zone, as they believe in a strong euro, and in any case they don’t want to build dollar reserves and give the appearance that the dollar is ‘backing’ the euro.

Three Reverse Thrusters in Use

This works to move all the euro member nation deficits higher as the ‘sustainability math’ of all deteriorate as well, increasing the odds of the ‘investor tax’ expanding to the other member nations – and that continues the negative feedback loop.

Given the demand leakages of the institutional structure, as a point of logic, prosperity can only come from some combination of increased net exports, a private sector credit expansion, or a public sector credit expansion.

And right now it looks like they are still going backwards on all three. And with the transmission in reverse, pressing the accelerator harder only makes you go backwards that much faster.

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More on Greece and the euro

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As previously discussed, all policies seem to be ‘strong euro’ first.

And the ‘success’ of the euro continues to be gauged by its ‘strength’.

The haircuts on the Greek bonds are functionally a tax that removes that many net euro financial assets. Call it an ‘austerity’ measure extending forced austerity to investors.

Other member nations will likely hold off on turning towards that same tax until after Greece is a ‘done deal’ as early noises could work to undermine the Greek arrangements, and take the ‘investor tax’ off the table.

Like most other currencies, the euro has ‘built in’ demand leakages that fall under the general category of ‘savings desires’. These include the demand to hold actual cash, contributions to tax advantaged pension contributions, contributions to individual retirement accounts, insurance and other corporate ‘reserves’, foreign central bank accumulations euro denominated financial assets, along with all the unspent interest and earnings compounding.

Offsetting all of that unspent income is, historically, the expansion of debt, where agents spend more than their income. This includes borrowing for business and consumer purchases, which includes borrowing to buy cars and houses. In other words, net savings of financial assets are increased by the demand leakages and decreased by credit expansion. And, in general, most of the variation is due to changes in the credit expansion component.

Austerity in the euro zone consists of public spending cuts and tax hikes, which have both directly slowed the economies and increased net savings desires, as the austerity measures have also reduced private sector desires to borrow to spend. This combination results in a decline in sales, which translates into fewer jobs and reduced private sector income. Which further translates into reduced tax collections and increased public sector transfer payments, as the austerity measures designed to reduce public sector debt instead serve to increase it.

Now adding to that is this latest tax on investors in Greek debt, and if the propensity to spend any of the lost funds of those holders was greater than 0, aggregate demand will see an additional decline, with public sector debt climbing that much higher as well.

All of which serves to make the euro ‘harder to get’ and further support the value of the euro, which serves to keep a lid on the net export channel. The ‘answer’ to the export dilemma would be to have the ECB, for example, buy dollars as Germany used to do with the mark, and as China and Japan have done to support their exporters. But ideologically this is off the table in the euro zone, as they believe in a strong euro, and in any case they don’t want to build dollar reserves and give the appearance that the dollar is ‘backing’ the euro.

And all of which works to move all the euro member nation deficits higher as the ‘sustainability math’ of all deteriorate as well, increasing the odds of the ‘investor tax’ expanding to the other member nations that continues the negative feedback loop.

Given the demand leakages of the institutional structure, as a point of logic prosperity can only come from some combination of increased net exports, a private sector credit expansion, or a public sector credit expansion.

And right now it looks like they are still going backwards on all three.

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Greece

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Comes back to the idea that resolving solvency issues in the euro zone doesn’t fix the economy.

And with negative growth the solvency math doesn’t work for any of the euro members.

And what’s with the ECB threatening to back away on liquidity support for the banking system?

So looks to me like the Greek resolution is not the end of the solvency issues, but that the focus simply moves on to the next weaker sister.

And, as previously discussed, the risk remains elevated that if Greece gets to haircut its obligations and gets funding, others will ask for the same, triggering a general, global, catastrophic financial meltdown.

My first order proposal remains an ECB distribution on a per capita basis to the euro member nations of maybe 10% of euro zone GDP per year to put the solvency issue behind them. Along with relaxed budget rules, maybe allowing deficits up to 6% of GDP annually, further supported by the ECB funding a transition job at a non disruptive wage to facilitate the transition from unemployment to private sector employment. I might also recommend deficits be increased by suspending VAT as a way to increase aggregate demand and lower prices at the same time.

Alternatively, the ECB could simply guarantee all national govt debt and rely on the growth and stability pact for fiscal discipline, which would probably require enhanced authorities.

And rather than trying to bring Greece’s deficit down to current target levels, they could instead relax the growth and stability pact limits to something closer to full employment levels. And, again, I’d look into suspending VAT to both increase aggregate demand and lower prices.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in today’s world news:

The likes of Ford adding to pension funds makes the point of the increasing and ongoing demand leakages putting a damper on GDP.

And oil prices have now crept up enough to materially cut into aggregate demand as well.

Nor are banks adding to capital to meet expanding demand for credit, which remains anemic.

Headlines:

Data Suggests Euro Zone May Slide Back Into Recession
German Manufacturing Slows as New Export Orders Fall
China’s Factory Activity Shrinks for Fourth Month
ECB Preparing to Close Liquidity Floodgates
Ford Pours $3.8 Billion Into Pension Plan
Oil Could Turn to Headwind as Dow Flirts With 13,000
UBS to Issue More Loss-Absorbing Capital
Iran ‘Winning’ on Oil Sanctions: Top Trader
Greek Bailout Puts Focus Back on Credit Default Swaps
Iran Fuels Oil-Price Rally—And Prices Could Keep Rising

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China says January lending down 28% from year ago

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Looks like China is still in ‘inflation fighting’ mode as state lending over there is functionally like federal deficit spending here.

As previously discussed, while China may successfully engineer a soft landing in their fight against inflation, I’ve never seen anything but hard landings elsewhere when fighting inflation. And with China a ‘first half/second half’ story, a weak first half generally means an even weaker second half.

China says January lending down 28% from year ago

February 12 (AFP) — Chinese bank lending fell 28 percent in January from a year earlier, official data showed, suggesting Beijing is reluctant to open the credit valves too quickly for fear of reigniting inflation.

State-owned lenders issued 738.1 billion yuan ($117.26 billion) in new loans in January, down 288.2 billion yuan from the same month last year and well short of analyst forecasts for one trillion yuan, the central bank said Friday.

Banks handed out 640.5 billion yuan in loans in December.

Chinese banks typically ramp up lending at the beginning of the year to avoid losing quotas issued by regulators and the effects of changes in monetary policy. Analysts said the weaker-than-expected data partly reflected the earlier than usual Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in January, and the government’s still tight restrictions on credit.

Mark Williams, an economist at Capital Economics in London, said it was the lowest December to January increase since 2007.

“It is hard to escape the feeling that the weakness of lending was at least partly a reflection of the slow pace at which policy is being eased,” he said.

Late last year the central bank eased lending restrictions on banks and analysts expect similar moves this year as authorities try to spur economic activity and prevent a collapse in the property market.

But most experts had forecast another easing of bank reserve requirements before the week-long Lunar New Holiday and the government’s failure to act suggests it does not expect a sharp slowdown in economic growth.

There is growing evidence that the world’s second largest economy is slowing as turmoil in eurozone countries and weakness in the United States hurts demand for Chinese exports, a key driver of the Asian giant.

The International Monetary Fund this week warned that an escalation of Europe’s fiscal woes could slash China’s economic growth by half this year, and it urged Beijing to prepare stimulus measures in response.

But Chinese leaders, worried about reigniting politically sensitive inflation, have signalled their intention to move cautiously and fine-tune policy as needed.

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China Should Weigh Fiscal Boost if Euro Crisis Deepens

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Must be a student of MMT?

China Should Weigh Fiscal Boost if Euro Crisis Deepens

Feb 8 (Bloomberg) — China should consider fiscal stimulus if Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis sparks a recession there that affects the U.S., Asian Development Bank Managing Director-General Rajat Nag said.

“The European crisis is a major cloud on the horizon,” Nag said in an interview at the ADB’s Tokyo office today. “Countries, particularly China, have to consider the possibility of coming in with necessary fiscal stimulus if the euro zone crisis becomes more serious and if the effects of that spillover into the U.S.”

The International Monetary Fund said two days ago that a worsening of Europe’s debt turmoil could almost halve China’s growth rate, which the lender projects at 8.2 percent in 2012. Fitch Ratings said yesterday that a “hard landing” for the nation was a key risk for the global economy.

“Our assessment is that the situation will probably not be a hard landing,” Nag said. “If the euro zone crisis resolves itself in an orderly fashion, China could still grow at over 8 percent in this calendar year.

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