Canada Archive

Trade, Atlanta Fed, Redbook sales

Trade deficit a bit higher but looks to me like more to come, including revisions. The petroleum gap is set to widen as US production begins to decline and is replaced by imports. And to my prior point, auto imports were up. And further note that global reductions in trade are associated ...Read More

Stephanie Kelton, Rail cars, Econintersect forecast, Italy comment, corp profits

Professor Kelton hit the ground running in January and has been making serious inroads! This article has the usual misrepresentations, of course, but now Stephanie’s position gives her the opportunity to respond publicly and decisively. U.S. Senate economist explains why deficits aren’t always evil: Walkom By Thomas Walkom Stephanie Kelton is part ...Read More

Comments on DB research

I send my posts to both a mailing list and to my blog,, where they are posted for public viewing. To get on the mailing list you must make a donation to the annual Pan Mass Challenge bicycle ride, which donates 100% of donations to Dana Farber in Boston, the world’s ...Read More

Saudi discounts altered

Remember when they reduced some of their discounts I suggested they may be stabilizing prices? Now they are increasing a discount, indicating they are trying to soften prices? Saudis Deepen Asia Light-Oil Discount to Low in Market Fight By Anthony DiPaola and Mark Shenk Feb 6 — State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. ...Read More

Layoffs, Claims, Trade

Challenger Job-Cut Report Highlights In perhaps the first warning of serious trouble from the oil patch, Challenger’s layoff count starts off the year with an elevated reading, at 53,041 for the highest reading since February 2013 and the highest January reading since 2012. Readings in December and November were much lower, at ...Read More

Jobless claims, Pending home sales, Danish CB cuts rate to -.5%, comments on Greece, Canada job losses, Shell capex cut, Gasoline and utility demand soft

Jobless Claims 265k, -43k to 15-Year Low in Holiday Week. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 307,000 to 308,000. The 4-week moving average was 298,500, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous ...Read More

mtg purch apps, adp

Weaker, and down 8% year over year, even with much lower rates. MBA Purchase Applications Highlights Mortgage application activity fell sharply in the 2 weeks to January 2, down 5.0 percent for purchase applications and down 12.0 percent for refinancing applications. The trend for purchase applications, which offers an indication on underlying ...Read More

Bankers See $1 Trillion of Zombie Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields

Wonder if Janet factored this in? Bankers See $1 Trillion of Zombie Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields By Tom Randall Dec 18 (Bloomberg) — There are zombies in the oil fields. After crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned for next year are the undead — still ...Read More

Yellen vs Mosler

At her press conference Janet Yellen stated that the net effect of the drop in oil prices is that of a tax cut, and therefore supportive of US output and employment. My take is that the cuts in spending due to both the equal income lost by oil producers as well as ...Read More

personal income and consumption charts and comments, and a word on oil

This is after tax personal income not adjusted for inflation. Note that there was anticipation of an acceleration from the first quarter, but now it looks like the growth has slowed and rolled over: Here you can see how it was growing steadily, then shifted down when my payroll tax holiday expired, ...Read More