Brazil Archive

Credit spillovers from Eur banks to EM

Makes sense. I always wondered how that loan demand was accommodated. Never looked like the kind of lending US regulators would sanction. Karim writes: Interesting table from JPM. Much larger dependence on credit from Eur banks for LATAM economies than from U.S. banks. Poland/Russia not as surprising but still large! Overall, domestic ...Read More

Sarkozy Yields on ECB Crisis Role

He’ll be back…The way things are going there is no alternative, a point market forces continue to make. And no amount of tea from China, at any price, would be sufficient given current institutional structure and policy. And more discussion on whether Greece should be allowed to default, even as haircut talk ...Read More

Jobless Claims Dip, Still in Range; Trade Deficit Jumps

As previously discussed, the real economy seems to be muddling through, and at firmer levels than the first half of the year. The trade report will probably result in Q2 GDP being revised down to just below 1%, but up from the .4% reported for Q1 So Q3 still looks like it ...Read More

WSJ- Boehner pulls out of debt talks….

As previously discussed, the President is no longer involved, and if Congress does get a bill to his desk he’ll sign it. Grand Bargain Talks Collapse By Carol E Lee and Janet Hook July 22 (WSJ) — A high-stakes effort by President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner to hatch a ...Read More

PBOC Cuts Yuan Intervention as Slower Economy Curbs Inflows

FDI (foreign direct investment) has been the force causing the yuan to appreciate as it’s been an avenue for speculative flows as well as real investment. The real investment flows may have slowed a while back, with speculative flows responsible for the most recent rise in the currency. As these flows slow, ...Read More

quick update

First, a few of today’s headlines to set the mood: China factory sector close to stalling – Flash PMI Europe Services, Manufacturing Weaken More Than Forecast France’s Manufacturing, Services Growth Slows More Than Forecast Trichet Says Risk Signals ‘Red’ as Crisis Threatens Banks Italian Household Confidence Falls Amid Concerns on Growth, Jobs ...Read More

Foreigners Make Run on US Housing Market

This is what happens when the Fed scares the heck out of global portfolio managers with otherwise benign QE2, and they deallocate dollar holdings to the point where the currency sells off enough to find real buyers of dollars who want them to buy cheap real assets like US real estate. That’s ...Read More

Geithner- U.S. Will Urge China to Boost Interest Rates

Even more confused than the usual out of paradigm nonsense from Geithner highlighted below: U.S. Will Urge China to Boost Interest Rates in Washington Talks By Rebecca Christie and Ian Katz May 9 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will urge China to allow higher interest rates when he meets with ...Read More

Goldman on monetary policy in the BRICs

Excellent recap of what’s happening through the eyes of Wall St. in the BRICS. To be noted: The BRICS all seem to be fighting inflation, which means the problem is that bad. Unfortunately, hiking rates via direct rate hikes, reserve requirement hikes, and the like, which they all are doing, add to ...Read More

MBA’s index of loan requests for home purchases tumbled 13.6 percent

This is disturbing, along with still weak housing price indicators, and the ongoing downward revisions to GDP forecasts, as aggregate demand remains under international attack on all fronts. On the govt side, China is cutting demand to fight inflation, with India and Brazil presumed to be doing same. Austerity measures continue to ...Read More